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Measuring The UK Short-Run NAIRU

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  • Nicoletta Batini
  • Jennifer Greenslade

Abstract

This paper derives alternative measures of the short-run NAIRU (SRN) for the UK, the rate for unemployment at which inflation will neither increase nor decrease in the short-run. We estimate the NAIRU jointly with price equations by using the Kalman filter. Our work suggests that both structural changes in the labour market and favourable supply shocks may have had a beneficial impact on RPIX inflation over the last few years. We show that deviations of unemployment from the short-run NAIRU measures prove helpful in predicting inflation and we demonstrate their usefulness in Taylor-type policy rules for the interest rate.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England in its series Discussion Papers with number 12.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:mpc:wpaper:12

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  1. Fabiani, Silvia & Mestre, Ricardo, 2000. "Alternative measures of the NAIRU in the euro area: estimates and assessment," Working Paper Series 0017, European Central Bank.
  2. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1999. "Rethinking the Role of NAIRU in Monetary Policy: Implications of Model Formulation and Uncertainty," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 405-436 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Laurence Boone & Claude Giorno & Mara Meacci & Dave Rae & Pete Richardson & Dave Turner, 2001. "Estimating the structural rate of unemployment for the OECD countries," OECD Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2001(2), pages 171-216.
  4. John B. Taylor, 1998. "An Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Working Papers 6768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Pete Richardson & Laurence Boone & Claude Giorno & Mara Meacci & David Rae & David Turner, 2000. "The Concept, Policy Use and Measurement of Structural Unemployment: Estimating a Time Varying NAIRU Across 21 OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 250, OECD Publishing.
  6. Steven Braun, 1984. "Productivity and the NIIRU (and other Phillips curve issues)," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 34, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter.
  8. Katharine Neiss & Edward Nelson, 2002. "Inflation dynamics, marginal cost, and the output gap: evidence from three countries," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  9. Jennifer V Greenslade & Richard G Pierse & Jumana Saleheen, 2003. "A Kalman filter approach to estimating the UK NAIRU," Bank of England working papers 179, Bank of England.
  10. Attfield, Clifford L. F. & Silverstone, Brian, 1998. "Okun's Law, Cointegration and Gap Variables," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 625-637, July.
  11. Carlin, Wendy & Soskice, David, 1990. "Macroeconomics and the Wage Bargain: A Modern Approach to Employment, Inflation, and the Exchange Rate," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198772446, September.
  12. Laurence Ball & Robert Moffitt, 2001. "Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve," Economics Working Paper Archive 450, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  13. Layard, Richard & Bean, Charles, 1989. " Why Does Unemployment Persist?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 91(2), pages 371-96.
  14. Laurence Boone, 2000. "Comparing Semi-Structural Methods to Estimate Unobserved Variables: The HPMV and Kalman Filters Approaches," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 240, OECD Publishing.
  15. Douglas O. Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 195-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Arturo Estrella, 1997. "Aggregate supply and demand shocks: a natural rate approach," Research Paper 9739, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  17. Nickell, Stephen & Layard, Richard, 1999. "Labor market institutions and economic performance," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 46, pages 3029-3084 Elsevier.
  18. Robert J. Gordon, 1998. "Foundations of the Goldilocks Economy: Supply Shocks and the Time-Varying NAIRU," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 297-346.
  19. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 678.
  20. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 1991. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198284345, September.
  21. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  22. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter.
  23. Mark S Astley & Tony Yates, 1999. "Inflation and real disequilibria," Bank of England working papers 103, Bank of England.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Bozani, Vasiliki & Drydakis, Nick, 2011. "Studying the NAIRU and its Implications," IZA Discussion Papers 6079, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Huh, Hyeon-seung & Jang, Inwon, 2007. "Nonlinear Phillips curve, sacrifice ratio, and the natural rate of unemployment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 797-813, September.
  3. Oreste Napolitano & Alberto Montagnoli, 2010. "The European Unemployment Gap and the Role of Monetary Policy," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(2), pages 1346-1358.
  4. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector & Salvador, Pablo F., 2006. "The (Ir)relevance of the NRU for Policy Making: The Case of Denmark," IZA Discussion Papers 2397, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  5. Hjelm, Göran & Jönsson, Kristian, 2010. "In Search of a Method for Measuring the Output Gap of the Swedish Economy," Working Paper 115, National Institute of Economic Research.
  6. Valerija Botric, 2012. "NAIRU estimates for Croatia," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics, vol. 30(1), pages 163-180.
  7. Eva Köberl & Sarah M. Lein, 2008. "The NAICU and the Phillips curve – An Approach Based on Micro Data," KOF Working papers 08-211, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  8. Wolfgang Pollan, . "Incomes Policies, Expectations and the NAIRU," WIFO Working Papers 433, WIFO.
  9. Wolfgang Pollan, 2013. "Inflation Persistence or the Protracted Effects of Commodity Price Changes?," WIFO Working Papers 451, WIFO.

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