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Measuring The UK Short-Run NAIRU

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Author Info
Nicoletta Batini
Jennifer Greenslade

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Abstract

This paper derives alternative measures of the short-run NAIRU (SRN) for the UK, the rate for unemployment at which inflation will neither increase nor decrease in the short-run. We estimate the NAIRU jointly with price equations by using the Kalman filter. Our work suggests that both structural changes in the labour market and favourable supply shocks may have had a beneficial impact on RPIX inflation over the last few years. We show that deviations of unemployment from the short-run NAIRU measures prove helpful in predicting inflation and we demonstrate their usefulness in Taylor-type policy rules for the interest rate.

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Paper provided by Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England in its series Discussion Papers with number 12.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:mpc:wpaper:12

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Arturo Estrella, 1997. "Aggregate supply and demand shocks: a natural rate approach," Research Paper 9739, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  2. Pete Richardson & Laurence Boone & Claude Giorno & Mara Meacci & David Rae & David Turner, 2000. "The Concept, Policy Use and Measurement of Structural Unemployment: Estimating a Time Varying NAIRU Across 21 OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 250, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  3. Laurence Boone, 2000. "Comparing Semi-Structural Methods to Estimate Unobserved Variables: The HPMV and Kalman Filters Approaches," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 240, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  4. Nickell, Stephen & Layard, Richard, 1999. "Labor market institutions and economic performance," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 46, pages 3029-3084 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Gordon, Robert J, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Layard, Richard & Bean, Charles, 1989. " Why Does Unemployment Persist?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 91(2), pages 371-96.
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  7. Ricardo Mestre & Silvia Fabiani, 2000. "Alternative measures of the NAIRU in the Euro area: estimates and assessment," Working Paper Series 17, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. Robert J. Gordon, 1998. "Foundations of the Goldilocks Economy: Supply Shocks and the Time-Varying NAIRU," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1998-2), pages 297-346. [Downloadable!]
  9. Katharine Neiss & Edward Nelson, 2002. "Inflation dynamics, marginal cost, and the output gap: evidence from three countries," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
  10. Laurence Ball & Robert Moffitt, 2001. "Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve," Economics Working Paper Archive 450, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
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  11. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1999. "Rethinking the Role of NAIRU in Monetary Policy: Implications of Model Formulation and Uncertainty," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 405-436 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 678. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Jennifer V Greenslade & Richard G Pierse & Jumana Saleheen, . "A Kalman filter approach to estimating the UK NAIRU," Bank of England working papers 179, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  15. Staiger, Douglas & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Attfield, Clifford L. F. & Silverstone, Brian, 1998. "Okun's Law, Cointegration and Gap Variables," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 625-637, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1996. "How Precise are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Working Papers 5477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Layard, R. & Nickell, S., . "Layard-Nickell," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics layardnickell, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  19. Mark S Astley & Tony Yates, . "Inflation and real disequilibria," Bank of England working papers 103, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  20. Steven Braun, 1984. "Productivity and the NIIRU (and other Phillips curve issues)," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 34, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  21. John B. Taylor, 1998. "An Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Working Papers 6768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Pablo F. Salvador, 2006. "The (Ir)relevance of the NRU for Policy Making: The Case of Denmark," IZA Discussion Papers 2397, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Eva Köberl & Sarah M. Lein, 2008. "The NAICU and the Phillips curve – An Approach Based on Micro Data," Working papers 08-211, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
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