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The NAICU and the Phillips curve – An Approach Based on Micro Data

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Author Info
Eva Köberl () (KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, Switzerland)
Sarah M. Lein () (Swiss National Bank, Zurich, Switzerland)

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Abstract

In this paper we propose a straightforward method to derive a non-accelerating inflation capacity utilisation rate (NAICU) based on micro data. We condition the current capacity utilisation of firms on their current and planned price adjustments. The non-accelerating inflation capacity utilisation rate is then defined as the rate where a firm feels no price adjustment pressure. One of the main advantages is that this methodology uses structural aspects and does not make it necessary to operate with –often rather arbitrary– statistical filters. We show that our aggregate NAICU performs remarkably well as an indicator of inflationary pressure in a Phillips curve estimation.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich in its series KOF Working papers with number 08-211.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2008
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Handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:08-211

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Related research
Keywords: prices; capacity utilisation; NAICU; Phillips curve;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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References listed on IDEAS
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  2. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 2002. "The NAIRU in Theory and Practice," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1963, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Niek J. Nahuis, 2003. "An alternative demand indicator: the 'non-accelerating inflation rate of capacity utilization'," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 35(11), pages 1339-1344, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Sarah M. Rupprecht, 2007. "When Do Firms Adjust Prices? Evidence from Micro Panel Data," KOF Working papers 07-160, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
  5. Robert J. Gordon, 1998. "Foundations of the Goldilocks Economy: Supply Shocks and the Time-Varying NAIRU," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1998-2), pages 297-346. [Downloadable!]
  6. Katharine Neiss & Edward Nelson, 2002. "Inflation dynamics, marginal cost, and the output gap: evidence from three countries," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
  7. Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C., 2005. "The decline of activist stabilization policy: Natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1927-1950, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Corrado, Carol & Mattey, Joe, 1997. "Capacity Utilization," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 151-67, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Nicoletta Batini & Jennifer V. Greenslade, 2006. "Measuring the UK short-run NAIRU," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(1), pages 28-49, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2001. "European inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1237-1270. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Lein, Sarah M. & Köberl, Eva, 2009. "Capacity Utilisation, Constraintes and Price Adjustments under the Microscope," Working Papers 2009-6, Swiss National Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Galí, Jordi, 2002. "New Perspectives on Monetary Policy, Inflation and the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 3210, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Michael Woodford, 2001. "The Taylor Rule and Optimal Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 232-237, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Camarero, Mariam & Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluis & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2005. "Unemployment dynamics and NAIRU estimates for accession countries: A univariate approach," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 584-603, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Basistha, Arabinda & Nelson, Charles R., 2007. "New measures of the output gap based on the forward-looking new Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 498-511, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. King, Thomas B. & Morley, James, 2007. "In search of the natural rate of unemployment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 550-564, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy," NBER Working Papers 5735, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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