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PPP May not Hold After all: A Further Investigation

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Author Info
Serena Ng
Pierre Perron

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Abstract

In a recent paper Engel (1999b) presents monte-carlo evidence to suggest that unit root tests can not detect a non-stationary component in the real exchange rate even when this component accounts for almost half of its long-horizon forecast error variance This hidden non-stationary component led to the conclusion that long run purchasing power parity might not hold after all In this note we first point out some conceptual difficulties with the statistic being used to measure the size of the non-stationary component and then argue that it bears no systematic relationship with rejection rates in unit root tests The problems stem from near observational equivalence of the simulated model in not one but two dimensions We then discuss the steps a practitioner can take to minimize Type I error in cases when the non-stationary component is hard to detect Real exchange rate data for 19 countries are examined and estimates are obtained for the duration of the real exchange rate shocks

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Paper provided by The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics in its series Economics Working Paper Archive with number 466.

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Date of creation: Feb 2001
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Handle: RePEc:jhu:papers:466

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Robert R Tchaidze, 2001. "Estimating Taylor Rules in a Real Time Setting," Economics Working Paper Archive 457, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Gordon, Robert J, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Robert J. Gordon, 1998. "Foundations of the Goldilocks Economy: Supply Shocks and the Time-Varying NAIRU," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1998-2), pages 297-346. [Downloadable!]
  4. Laurence Ball & Robert Moffitt, 2001. "Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve," Economics Working Paper Archive 450, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
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  5. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Staiger, Douglas & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. John B. Taylor, 1999. "A Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 319-348 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1996. "How Precise are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Working Papers 5477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Maican, Florin G. & Sweeney, Richard J., 2006. "Real Exchange Rate Adjustment In European Transition Countries," Working Papers in Economics 202, Göteborg University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Seung Hyun Hong & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2005. "Testing Linearity in Cointegrating Relations with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1541, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  3. César Calderón & Roberto Duncan, 2003. "Purchasing Power Parity in an Emerging Market Economy: A Long-Span Study for Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 215, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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  4. J.J.J. Groen, 2000. "New multi-country evidence on purchasing power parity," Econometric Institute Report 188, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
  5. Gawon Yoon, 2003. "The time series behaviour of Brazilian inflation rate: new evidence from unit root tests with good size and power," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(10), pages 627-631, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Fischer, Christoph & Porath, Daniel, 2006. "A reappraisal of the evidence on PPP: a systematic investigation into MA roots in panel unit root tests and their implications," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,23, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  7. P.H. Franses & D.J. van Dijk, 2002. "A simple test for PPP among traded goods," Econometric Institute Report 255, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Alan M. Taylor, 2000. "A Century of Purchasing-Power Parity," NBER Working Papers 8012, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Sofiane H. Sekioua, 2004. "Real interest parity (RIP) over the 20th century: New evidence based on confidence intervals for the dominant root and half-lives of shocks," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 91, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
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