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A reappraisal of the evidence on PPP: a systematic investigation into MA roots in panel unit root tests and their implications

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Author Info
Fischer, Christoph
Porath, Daniel

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Abstract

Panel unit root tests of real exchange rates ? as opposed to univariate tests ? usually reject non-stationarity. These tests, however, could be biased if the real exchange rate contained MA roots. Indeed, two independent arguments claim that the real exchange rate, being a sum of a stationary and a non-stationary component, is possibly an ARIMA (1, 1, 1) process. Monte Carlo simulations show, how systematic changes in the parameters of the components, of the test equation and of the correlation matrix affect the size of first and second generation panel unit root tests. Two components of the real exchange rate, the real exchange rate of a single good and a weighted sum of relative prices, are constructed from the data for a panel of countries. Computation of the relevant parameters reveals that panel unit root tests of the real exchange rate are severely oversized, usually much more so than simple ADF tests. Thus, the evidence for PPP from panel unit root tests may be merely due to extreme size biases. --

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Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies with number 2006,23.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:4721

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Related research
Keywords: panel unit root test; purchasing power parity; real exchange rate; Monte Carlo simulation;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data

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References listed on IDEAS
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    Other versions:
  2. O'Connell, Paul G. J., 1998. "The overvaluation of purchasing power parity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 1-19, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Clark, Peter K., 1988. "Nearly redundant parameters and measures of persistence in economic time series," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 447-461. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Kristian Jönsson, 2005. "Cross-sectional Dependency and Size Distortion in a Small-sample Homogeneous Panel Data Unit Root Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(3), pages 369-392, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Michael B. Devereux, 1997. "Real Exchange Rates and Macroeconomics: Evidence and Theory," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(4), pages 773-808, November.
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  17. Hsieh, David A., 1982. "The determination of the real exchange rate : The productivity approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3-4), pages 355-362, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Papell, David H & Theodoridis, Hristos, 2001. "The Choice of Numeraire Currency in Panel Tests of Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(3), pages 790-803, August.
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  26. Matthew Higgins & Egon Zakrajsek, 1999. "Purchasing power parity: three stakes through the heart of the unit root null," Staff Reports 80, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Fischer, Christoph, 2007. "An assessment of the trends in international price competitiveness among EMU countries," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,08, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  2. Bernd Schnatz, 2007. "Is reversion to PPP in euro exchange rates non-linear?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 281-297, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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