Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Real Exchange Rate Adjustment In European Transition Countries

Contents:

Author Info

  • Maican, Florin G.

    ()
    (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)

  • Sweeney, Richard J.

    ()
    (McDonough School of Business, Georgetown University)

Abstract

This paper presents unit-root test results for real exchange rates in ten Central and Eastern European transition countries during 1993:01-2003:12. Because of the shift from controlled to market economies and the accompanying crises, failed policy regimes and changes in exchange rate regimes, appropriate tests in transition countries require allowing for both structural changes and outliers. In both single-equation tests and panel tests with SUR techniques, the data reject the unit-root null for the CEE countries. Accounting for structural breaks and outliers gives much faster mean-reversion speeds than otherwise.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/2077/2715
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 202.

as in new window
Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 14 Feb 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0202

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, University of Gothenburg, Box 640, SE 405 30 GÖTEBORG, Sweden
Phone: 031-773 10 00
Web page: http://www.handels.gu.se/econ/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Purchasing power parity; real exchange rate; Monte Carlo; unit root; transition countries; panel data;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Peel, David & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Towards a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," CEPR Discussion Papers 2658, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  3. Josip Tica & Ivo Družić, 2006. "The Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Effect: A Survey of Empirical Evidence," EFZG Working Papers Series 0607, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb.
  4. Renato Flôres & Philippe Jorion & Pierre-Yves Preumont & Ariane Szafarz, 1999. "Multivariate Unit root Tests of the PPP Hypothesis," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/711, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  5. Engel, C., 1996. "Long-Run PPP May Not Hold After All," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 96-05, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  6. Kaddour Hadri, 1999. "Testing For Stationarity In Heterogeneous Panel Data," Research Papers 1999_04, University of Liverpool Management School.
  7. Jorion, Philippe & Sweeney, Richard J., 1996. "Mean reversion in real exchange rates: evidence and implications for forecasting," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 535-550, August.
  8. Søren Johansen & Rocco Mosconi & Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 216-249.
  9. Saikkonen, Pentti & Lutkepohl, Helmut, 2000. "Testing for the Cointegrating Rank of a VAR Process with Structural Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(4), pages 451-64, October.
  10. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Bostjan, 2004. "Real exchange rate dynamics in transition economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 83-100, March.
  11. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1985. "Purchasing Power Parity," NBER Working Papers 1591, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 1997. "The Behaviour of Real Exchange Rates During the Post-Bretton Woods Period," CEPR Discussion Papers 1730, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2007. "Purchasing Power Parity In Central And Eastern European Countries: An Analysis Of Unit Roots And Nonlinearities," Working Papers. Serie AD 2007-22, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  14. O'Connell, Paul G. J., 1998. "The overvaluation of purchasing power parity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 1-19, February.
  15. Eric Zivot & Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 944, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  16. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-20, July.
  17. Dibooglu, Selahattin & Kutan, Ali M., 2001. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Transition Economies: The Case of Poland and Hungary," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 257-275, June.
  18. Maurice Obstfeld., 1993. "Model Trending Real Exchange Rates," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-011, University of California at Berkeley.
  19. Ivan Paya & Ioannis A. Venetis & David A. Peel, 2003. "Further Evidence on PPP Adjustment Speeds: the Case of Effective Real Exchange Rates and the EMS," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(4), pages 421-437, 09.
  20. Graham Elliott & Michael Jansson, . "Testing for Unit Roots with Stationary Covariates," Economics Working Papers 2000-6, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  21. Masao Ogaki & Bruce E. Hansen & Ippei Fujiwara & Hyeongwoo Kim, 2013. "Purchasing power parity and the Taylor rule," AJRC Working Papers 05, Australia-Japan Research Centre, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  22. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ali M. Kutan & Su Zhou, 2008. "Do Real Exchange Rates Follow a Nonlinear Mean Reverting Process in Developing Countries," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 74(4), pages 1049-1062, April.
  23. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
  24. Liew, Venus Khim-sen & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Chong, Terence Tai-leung, 2004. "Are Asian real exchange rates stationary?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 313-316, June.
  25. International Monetary Fund, 2001. "Interpreting Real Exchange Rate Movements in Transition Countries," IMF Working Papers 01/56, International Monetary Fund.
  26. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Wu, Shaowen, 2001. "Is Purchasing Power Parity Overvalued?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(3), pages 804-12, August.
  27. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  28. Byung-Yeon Kim & Iikka Korhonen, 2002. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Countries: Evidence from Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel Models," Macroeconomics 0212014, EconWPA.
  29. Claude Lopez & Christian J. Murray & David H. Papell, 2003. "State of the Art Unit Root Tests and the PPP Puzzle," Macroeconomics 0310009, EconWPA.
  30. Jomana Amara & David Papell, 2006. "Testing for Purchasing Power Parity using stationary covariates," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1-2), pages 29-39.
  31. Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  32. Yin-Wong Cheung & Kon S. Lai, 1999. "On Cross-Country Differences in the Persistence of Real Exchange Rates," CESifo Working Paper Series 218, CESifo Group Munich.
  33. Christian J. Murray & David H. Papell, 2000. "The Purchasing Power Parity Persistence Paradigm," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0017, Econometric Society.
  34. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan M. Taylor, 1997. "Nonlinear Aspects of Goods-Market Arbitrage and Adjustment: Heckscher's Commodity Points Revisited," NBER Working Papers 6053, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  35. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  36. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
  37. Christev, Atanas & Noorbakhsh, Abbas, 2000. "Long-run purchasing power parity, prices and exchange rates in transition: The case of six Central and East European countries," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 87-108.
  38. Laszlo Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 2001. "Economic Transformation and Real Exchange Rates in the 2000s: The Balassa-Samuelson Connection," ECE Discussion Papers Series 2001_1, UNECE.
  39. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
  40. Mahdavi, Saeid & Zhou, Su, 1994. "Purchasing power parity in high-inflation countries: further evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 403-422.
  41. Meese, Richard A & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1988. " Was It Real? The Exchange Rate-Interest Differential Relation over the Modern Floating-Rate Period," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(4), pages 933-48, September.
  42. Helmut Lütkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen & Carsten Trenkler, 2004. "Testing for the Cointegrating Rank of a VAR Process with Level Shift at Unknown Time," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(2), pages 647-662, 03.
  43. Choi, Chi-Young & Mark, Nelson C. & Sul, Donggyu, 2006. "Unbiased Estimation of the Half-Life to PPP Convergence in Panel Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 921-938, June.
  44. Koedijk, Kees & Tims, Ben & Van Dijk, Mathijs A, 2004. "Purchasing Power Parity and the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 4510, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  45. Shin, Dong Wan & Sarkar, Sahadeb & Lee, Jong Hyup, 1996. "Unit root tests for time series with outliers," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 189-197, October.
  46. Matthew Higgins & Egon Zakrajsek, 1999. "Purchasing power parity: three stakes through the heart of the unit root null," Staff Reports 80, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  47. Pierre Perron & Gabriel RodrÌguez, 2003. "Searching For Additive Outliers In Nonstationary Time Series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 193-220, 03.
  48. Kocenda, Evzen, 2005. "Beware of breaks in exchange rates: Evidence from European transition countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 307-324, September.
  49. Mark Taylor, 2006. "Real exchange rates and Purchasing Power Parity: mean-reversion in economic thought," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1-2), pages 1-17.
  50. Peter C.B. Phillips & Hyungsik R. Moon, 1999. "Linear Regression Limit Theory for Nonstationary Panel Data," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1222, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  51. Claude Lopez & David H. Papell, 2007. "Convergence to Purchasing Power Parity at the Commencement of the Euro," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 1-16, 02.
  52. Lothian, James R. & Taylor, Mark P., 1997. "Real exchange rate behavior," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 945-954, December.
  53. Papell, David H & Theodoridis, Hristos, 2001. "The Choice of Numeraire Currency in Panel Tests of Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(3), pages 790-803, August.
  54. Choudhry, Taufiq, 1999. "Purchasing Power Parity in High-Inflation Eastern European Countries: Evidence from Fractional and Harris-Inder Cointegration Tests," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 293-308, April.
  55. Venetis, Ioannis A. & Paya, Ivan & Peel, David A., 2007. "Deterministic impulse response in a nonlinear model. An analytical expression," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 95(3), pages 315-319, June.
  56. Karlsson, Sune & Löthgren, Mickael, 1999. "On the power and interpretation of panel unit root tests," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 299, Stockholm School of Economics.
  57. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2002. "PPP May not Hold Afterall: A Further Investigation," CEMA Working Papers 83, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
  58. Chortareas, Georgios E. & Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol, 2002. "Nonlinear mean reversion in real exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 411-417, November.
  59. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
  60. Kyung-So Im & Junsoo Lee & Margie Tieslau, 2005. "Panel LM Unit-root Tests with Level Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(3), pages 393-419, 06.
  61. MacDonald, Ronald, 1996. "Panel unit root tests and real exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 7-11, January.
  62. Wu, Yangru, 1996. "Are Real Exchange Rates Nonstationary? Evidence from a Panel-Data Test," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 54-63, February.
  63. Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688 Elsevier.
  64. Dimitrios Sideris, 2006. "Purchasing Power Parity in economies in transition: evidence from Central and East European countries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1-2), pages 135-143.
  65. Franses, Philip Hans & Haldrup, Niels, 1994. "The Effects of Additive Outliers on Tests for Unit Roots and Cointegration," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 471-78, October.
  66. Ron Alquist & Menzie D. Chinn, 2002. "Productivity and the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 8824, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  67. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2006:i:7:p:1-14 is not listed on IDEAS
  68. Koedijk, C.G. & Tims, B. & van Dijk, M.A., 2005. "Purchasing Power Parity and Heterogeneous Mean Reversion," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2005-085-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni.
  69. Joon Y. Park & Mototsugu Shintani, 2006. "Testing for a Unit Root against Transitional Autoregressive Models," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000316, UCLA Department of Economics.
  70. Hegwood, Natalie D & Papell, David H, 1998. "Quasi Purchasing Power Parity," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(4), pages 279-89, October.
  71. Alan M. Taylor, 2000. "A Century of Purchasing-Power Parity," NBER Working Papers 8012, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  72. David Papell, 1998. "The Great Appreciation, the Great Depreciation, and the Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis," Working Papers 30, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  73. Papell, David H., 1997. "Searching for stationarity: Purchasing power parity under the current float," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 313-332, November.
  74. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
  75. Robert J. Sonora & Josip Tica, 2008. "Structural breaks and Purchasing Power Parity in the CEE and Post-War former Yugoslav States," EFZG Working Papers Series 0804, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb.
  76. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay, 2000. "The Transition Economies After Ten Years," NBER Working Papers 7664, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  77. Papell, David H. & Theodoridis, Hristos, 1998. "Increasing evidence of purchasing power parity over the current float," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 41-50, February.
  78. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
  79. Abuaf, Niso & Jorion, Philippe, 1990. " Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 157-74, March.
  80. Mario Cerrato & Nick Sarantis, 2006. "Nonlinear Mean Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Evidence from Developing and Emerging Market Economies," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(7), pages 1-14.
  81. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay, 2000. "The Transition Economies After Ten Years," IMF Working Papers 00/30, International Monetary Fund.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Soon, Siew-Voon & Boršič, Darja, 2013. "Real interest parity in Central and Eastern European countries: Evidence on integration into EU and the US markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 163-180.
  2. Maican, Florin G. & Sweeney, Richard J., 2012. "Cost of Misspecification in Break-Model Unit-Root Tests," Working Papers in Economics 536, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
  3. Ali Acaravci & Ilhan Ozturk, 2010. "Testing Purchasing Power Parity in Transition Countries: Evidence from Structural Breaks," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 12(27), pages 190-198, February.
  4. Slim Chaouachi & Zied Ftiti & Frederic Teulon, 2014. "Explaining the Tunisian Real Exchange: Long Memory versus Structural Breaks," Working Papers 2014-147, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  5. Václav Žďárek, 2012. "An Empirical Investigation of the Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis in European Transition Countries," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2012(3), pages 257-276.
  6. Hwa-Taek Lee & Gawon Yoon, 2013. "Does purchasing power parity hold sometimes? Regime switching in real exchange rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(16), pages 2279-2294, June.
  7. Maican, Florin G. & Sweeney, Richard J., 2013. "Rejection Probabilities for a Battery of Unit-Root Tests," Working Papers in Economics 568, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0202. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marie Andersson).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.