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Productivity and the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate Puzzle

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  • Ron Alquist
  • Menzie D. Chinn

Abstract

This paper documents the evidence for a productivity based model of the dollar/euro real exchange rate over the 1985-2001 period. We estimate cointegrating relationships between the real exchange rate, productivity, and the real price of oil using the Johansen (1988) and Stock-Watson (1993) procedures. We find that each percentage point in the US-Euro area productivity differential results in a five percentage point real appreciation of the dollar. This finding is robust to the estimation methodology, the variables included in the regression, and the sample period. We conjecture that productivity-based models cannot explain the observed patterns with the standard set of assumptions, and describe a case in which the model can be reconciled with the observed data.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8824.

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Date of creation: Mar 2002
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8824

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  1. Cedric Tille & Nicolas Stoffels & Olga Gorbachev, 2001. "To what extent does productivity drive the dollar?," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Aug.
  2. Susana Garcia Cervero & J. Humberto Lopez & Enrique Alberola Ila & Angel J. Ubide, 1999. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates - Euro, Dollar, 'Ins,' 'Outs,' and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework," IMF Working Papers 99/175, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Cohen, Daniel & Loisel, Olivier, 2001. "Why was the euro weak? Markets and policies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 988-994, May.
  4. Alan C. Stockman, 1978. "A Theory of Exchange Rate Determination," UCLA Economics Working Papers 122, UCLA Department of Economics.
  5. Christopher Gust & Jaime Marquez, 2000. "Productivity developments abroad," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Oct, pages 665-681.
  6. Clostermann, Jörg & Schnatz, Bernd, 2000. "The determinants of the euro-dollar exchange rate: synthetic fundamentals and a non-existing currency," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,02, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  7. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  8. Robin Brooks & Torsten Sløk & Manmohan S. Kumar & Hali J. Edison, 2001. "Exchange Rates and Capital Flows," IMF Working Papers 01/190, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Stefano Scarpetta & Andrea Bassanini & Dirk Pilat & Paul Schreyer, 2000. "Economic Growth in the OECD Area: Recent Trends at the Aggregate and Sectoral Level," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 248, OECD Publishing.
  10. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  11. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  12. Vincent Koen & Laurence Boone & Alain de Serres & Nicola Fuchs, 2001. "Tracking the Euro," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 298, OECD Publishing.
  13. Kenneth Rogoff, 1992. "Traded Goods Consumption Smoothing and the Random Walk Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 4119, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1985. "The Dazzling Dollar," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 16(1), pages 199-217.
  15. Chinn, Menzie D & Alquist, Ron, 2000. "Tracking the Euro's Progress," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(3), pages 357-73, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Koedijk, Kees G. & Tims, Ben & van Dijk, Mathijs A., 2004. "Purchasing power parity and the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(7-8), pages 1081-1107.
  2. Celine Gauthier & David Tessier, 2002. "Supply Shocks and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics: Canadian Evidence," Working Papers 02-31, Bank of Canada.
  3. Xiaoshan Chen & Ronald MacDonald, 2010. "Revisiting the Dollar-Euro Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate: Evidence from Multivariate Unobserved Components Models," Working Papers 2010_16, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  4. Shams, Rasul, 2005. "Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate 1999-2004 : Dollar and Euro as International Currencies," HWWA Discussion Papers 321, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
  5. Cynthia A. Lengnick-Hall & Robert J. Griffith, . "Knowledge Resources, Exploration, and Exploitation: A New Perspective on the Interplay Between Innovation and Application," Working Papers 0027, College of Business, University of Texas at San Antonio.
  6. Gadea, Maria-Dolores & Montanes, Antonio & Reyes, Marcelo, 2004. "The European Union currencies and the US dollar: from post-Bretton-Woods to the Euro," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(7-8), pages 1109-1136.
  7. Lambrias, Kyriacos, 2011. "World Technology Shocks and the Real Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate," TSE Working Papers 11-261, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
  8. Mariam Camarero & Javier Ordóñez & Cecilio Tamarit, 2002. "The Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate: Is it Fundamental?," CESifo Working Paper Series 798, CESifo Group Munich.
  9. Catherine L. Mann & Ellen E. Meade, 2002. "Home Bias, Transaction Costs, and Prospects for the Euro: A More Detailed Analysis," Working Paper Series WP02-3, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  10. Heimonen, Kari, 2009. "The euro-dollar exchange rate and equity flows," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 202-209, October.
  11. Pham Van Ha & Tom Kompas, 2008. "Productivity and Exchange Rate Dynamics: Supporting the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis through an ‘Errors in Variables’ Analysis," International and Development Economics Working Papers idec08-03, International and Development Economics.
  12. Andre Varella Mollick & Margot Quijano, 2004. "The Mexican Peso And The Korean Won Real Exchange Rates: Evidence From Productivity Models," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 189-208, June.
  13. Bernd Schnatz & Focco Vijsellaar & Chiara Osbat, 2004. "Productivity and the Euro-Dollar exchange rate," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 140(1), pages 1-30, March.
  14. Catherine L. Mann, 2002. "Perspectives on the U.S. Current Account Deficit and Sustainability," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 131-152, Summer.
  15. Vivien J. Lewis, 2007. "Productivity and the Euro-Dollar Real Exchange Rate," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 143(2), pages 324-348, July.

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