Productivity and the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate Puzzle
AbstractThis paper documents the evidence for a productivity based model of the dollar/euro real exchange rate over the 1985-2001 period. We estimate cointegrating relationships between the real exchange rate, productivity, and the real price of oil using the Johansen (1988) and Stock-Watson (1993) procedures. We find that each percentage point in the US-Euro area productivity differential results in a five percentage point real appreciation of the dollar. This finding is robust to the estimation methodology, the variables included in the regression, and the sample period. We conjecture that productivity-based models cannot explain the observed patterns with the standard set of assumptions, and describe a case in which the model can be reconciled with the observed data.
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Date of creation: Mar 2002
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2002-04-15 (All new papers)
- NEP-EFF-2002-06-18 (Efficiency & Productivity)
- NEP-IFN-2002-04-15 (International Finance)
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