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Testing for the Cointegrating Rank of a VAR Process with Level Shift at Unknown Time

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Author Info
Helmut Lütkepohl
Pentti Saikkonen
Carsten Trenkler

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Abstract

A systems cointegration rank test is proposed that is applicable for vector autoregressive (VAR) processes with a structural shift at unknown time. The structural shift is modeled as a simple shift in the level of the process. It is proposed to estimate the break date first on the basis of a full unrestricted VAR model. Two alternative estimators are considered and their asymptotic properties are derived. In the next step the deterministic part of the process including the shift size is estimated and the series are adjusted by subtracting the estimated deterministic part. A Johansen type test for the cointegrating rank is applied to the adjusted series. The test statistic is shown to have a well-known asymptotic null distribution that does not depend on the break date. The performance of the procedure in small samples is investigated by simulations. Copyright The Econometric Society 2004.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1468-0262.2004.00505.x
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Econometric Society in its journal Econometrica.

Volume (Year): 72 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 (03)
Pages: 647-662
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:72:y:2004:i:2:p:647-662

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Allan W. Gregory & Bruce E. Hansen, 1992. "Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," Working Papers 862, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
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  2. Golinelli, Roberto & Orsi, Renzo, 2000. " Testing for Structural Change in Cointegrated Relationships: Analysis of Price-Wages Models for Poland and Hungary," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 33(1-2), pages 19-51. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Toda, Hiro Y, 1994. "Finite Sample Properties of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegrating Ranks when Linear Trends are Present," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(1), pages 66-79, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
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  5. Christiano, Lawrence J, 1992. "Searching for a Break in GNP," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 237-50, July.
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  6. Kirstin Hubrich & Helmut Lütkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen, 2001. "A Review Of Systems Cointegration Tests," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 247-318. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. H. Lütkepohl & P. Saikkonen & C. Trenkler, . "Comparison of Tests for the Cointegrating Rank of a VAR Process with a Structural Shift," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 2000-10, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
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  8. Saikkonen, Pentti & L tkepohl, Helmut, 1999. "Local Power Of Likelihood Ratio Tests For The Cointegrating Rank Of A Var Process," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(01), pages 50-78, February. [Downloadable!]
  9. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-20, July.
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  10. Campos, Julia & Ericsson, Neil R. & Hendry, David F., 1996. "Cointegration tests in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 187-220, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Perron, Pierre, 1990. "Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 153-62, April.
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  12. Seo, Byeongseon, 1998. "Tests For Structural Change In Cointegrated Systems," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(02), pages 222-259, April. [Downloadable!]
  13. Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
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  14. Quintos, Carmela E., 1998. "Stability tests in error correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 289-315, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Søren Johansen & Rocco Mosconi & Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 216-249. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-87, July.
  17. Golinelli, Roberto & Orsi, Renzo, 1994. " Price-Wage Dynamics in a Transition Economy: The Case of Poland," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 293-313.
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  18. Bai, Jushan & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1998. "Testing for and Dating Common Breaks in Multivariate Time Series," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 65(3), pages 395-432, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Lutkepohl, Helmut & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2000. "Testing for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process with a time trend," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 177-198, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Saikkonen, Pentti & Lutkepohl, Helmut, 2000. "Testing for the Cointegrating Rank of a VAR Process with Structural Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(4), pages 451-64, October.
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Hjelm, Göran & Johansson, Martin W, 2002. "Structural Change in Fiscal Policy and The Permanence of Fiscal Contractions - The Case of Denmark and Ireland," Working Papers 2002:11, Lund University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Yoichi Arai & Eiji Kurozumi, 2005. "Testing for the Null Hypothesis of Cointegration with Structural Breaks," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-319, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo. [Downloadable!]
  3. Maican, Florin G. & Sweeney, Richard J., 2006. "Real Exchange Rate Adjustment In European Transition Countries," Working Papers in Economics 202, Göteborg University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Livanis, Grigorios & Moss, Charles B., 2005. "Price Transmission and Food Scares in the U.S. Beef Sector," Working Papers 15662, University of Florida, International Agricultural Trade and Policy Center. [Downloadable!]
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  5. J. Isaac Miller & Ronald Ratti, 2008. "Crude Oil and Stock Markets: Stability, Instability, and Bubbles," Working Papers 0810, Department of Economics, University of Missouri, revised 20 Jan 2009. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Carsten Trenkler & Pentti Saikkonen & Helmut Luetkepohl, 2006. "Testing for the Cointegrating Rank of a VAR Process with Level Shift and Trend Break," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/29, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Helmut LÜTKEPOHL, 2004. "Recent Advances in Cointegration Analysis," Economics Working Papers ECO2004/12, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
  8. Karel Mertens, 2006. "How the Removal of Deposit Rate Ceilings Has Changed Monetary Transmission in the US: Theory and Evidence," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/34, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
  9. Pentti SAIKKONEN & Helmut LUETKEPOHL & Carsten TRENKLER, 2004. "Break Date Estimation and Cointegration Testing in VAR Processes with Level Shift," Economics Working Papers ECO2004/21, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
  10. Juan F. Jimeno & Esther Moral & Lorena Saiz, 2006. "Structural breaks in labor productivity growth: the United States vs. the European Union," Banco de España Working Papers 0625, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  11. Håvard Hungnes, 2005. "Identifying Structural Breaks in Cointegrated VAR Models," Discussion Papers 422, Research Department of Statistics Norway. [Downloadable!]
  12. repec:bep:sndecm:11:2007:4:1342-1342 is not listed on IDEAS
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