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Cost of Misspecification in Break-Model Unit-Root Tests

Author

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  • Maican, Florin G.

    (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)

  • Sweeney, Richard J.

    (McDonough School of Business, Georgetown University)

Abstract

This paper examines power issues for the ADF and four break models (Perron 1989, Zivot and Andrews 1992) when the DGP corresponds to one of the break models. Choosing to test an incorrect break model can but need not greatly reduce the probability of rejecting the null. Break points that are relatively early in the sample period have substantial effects of increasing power. For modest shifts in time trends, simply including a time trend without shift in the model preserves power, but not for large time-trend shifts.

Suggested Citation

  • Maican, Florin G. & Sweeney, Richard J., 2012. "Cost of Misspecification in Break-Model Unit-Root Tests," Working Papers in Economics 536, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0536
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/2077/30147
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    2. Hecq, Alain & Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 1993. "Misspecification tests, unit roots and level shifts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 129-135.
    3. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    4. Montanes, Antonio & Olloqui, Irene & Calvo, Elena, 2005. "Selection of the break in the Perron-type tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 41-64.
    5. Maican, Florin G. & Sweeney, Richard J., 2013. "Real exchange rate adjustment in European transition countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 907-926.
    6. Kim, Tae-Hwan & Leybourne, Stephen J & Newbold, Paul, 2000. "Spurious Rejections by Perron Tests in the Presence of a Break," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(3), pages 433-444, July.
    7. Kim, Dukpa & Perron, Pierre, 2009. "Unit root tests allowing for a break in the trend function at an unknown time under both the null and alternative hypotheses," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 148(1), pages 1-13, January.
    8. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
    9. Ulrich K. M¸ller & Graham Elliott, 2003. "Tests for Unit Roots and the Initial Condition," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(4), pages 1269-1286, July.
    10. Tae‐Hwan Kim & Stephen J. Leybourne & Paul Newbold, 2000. "Spurious Rejections by Perron Tests in the Presence of a Break," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(3), pages 433-444, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Maican, Florin G. & Sweeney, Richard J., 2013. "Rejection Probabilities for a Battery of Unit-Root Tests," Working Papers in Economics 568, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unit root; Monte Carlo; Break models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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