Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Purchasing Power Parity and the Taylor Rule

Contents:

Author Info

  • Masao Ogaki

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Ohio State University)

  • Hyeongwoo Kim

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Auburn University)

Abstract

In the Kehoe and Midrigan (2007) model, the persistence parameter of the real exchange rate is closely related to the measure of price stickiness in the Calvo-pricing model. When we employ this view, Rogo 's (1996) 3 to 5 year consensus half-life implies that rms update their prices every 18 to 30 quarters on average. This is at odds with most estimates from U.S. aggregate data when single equation methods are applied to the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC), or when system methods are applied to Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models that include the NKPC. It is well known, however, that there is a large degree of uncertainty around the consensus half-life of the real exchange rate. To obtain a more efficient estimator, this paper develops a system method that combines the Taylor rule and a standard exchange rate model to estimate half-lives. We use a median unbiased estimator for the system method with nonparametric bootstrap confidence intervals, and compare the results with those from the single equation method typically used in the literature. Applying the method to the real exchange rates of 18 developed countries against the U.S. dollar, we nd that most of the half-life estimates from the single equation method fall in the range of 3 to 5 years with wide confidence intervals that extend to positive infinity. In contrast, the system method yields median-unbiased estimates that are typically shorter than one year with much sharper 95% confidence intervals, most of which range from 3 quarters to 5 years. These median unbiased estimates and the lower bound of the confidence intervals for the half-lives of real exchange rates are consistent with most estimates of price stickiness using aggregate U.S. data for the NKPC and DSGE models.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.econ.ohio-state.edu/pdf/ogaki/wp09-03.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Ohio State University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 09-03.

as in new window
Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:osu:osuewp:09-03

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 410 Arps Hall 1945 North High Street Columbus, Ohio 43210-1172

Related research

Keywords: Purchasing Power Parity; Calvo Pricing; Taylor Rule; Half-Life of PPP Deviations; Median Unbiased Estimator; Grid-t Confidence Interval;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Svensson, Lars E O, 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 1989, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
  4. Michael Woodford, 2007. "How Important is Money in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?," NBER Working Papers 13325, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Nelson C. Mark, 2005. "Changing Monetary Policy Rules, Learning, and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 11061, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Bruce E. Hansen, 1999. "The Grid Bootstrap And The Autoregressive Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 594-607, November.
  7. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  8. Del Negro, Marco & Schorfheide, Frank, 2008. "Forming priors for DSGE models (and how it affects the assessment of nominal rigidities)," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1191-1208, October.
  9. Rossi, Barbara, 2005. "Confidence Intervals for Half-Life Deviations From Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 432-442, October.
  10. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
  11. Eichenbaum, Martin & Fisher, Jonas D.M., 2007. "Estimating the frequency of price re-optimization in Calvo-style models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 2032-2047, October.
  12. Carlos Carvalho & Fernanda Nechio, 2011. "Aggregation and the PPP Puzzle in a Sticky-Price Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2391-2424, October.
  13. Parsley, David & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2004. "A Prism into the PPP Puzzles: The Micro-Foundations of Big Mac Real Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 4486, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. West, Kenneth D., 1989. "Estimation of linear rational expectations models, in the presence of deterministic terms," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 437-442, November.
  15. Jaebeom Kim & Masao Ogaki & Minseok Yang, 2007. "Structural Error Correction Models: A System Method for Linear Rational Expectations Models and an Application to an Exchange Rate Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(8), pages 2057-2075, December.
  16. Kim, Jaebeom & Ogaki, Masao, 2004. "Purchasing Power Parity for Traded and Non-traded Goods: A Structural Error Correction Model Approach," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 22(1), pages 1-25, March.
  17. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 1981. "A note on Wiener-Kolmogorov prediction formulas for rational expectations models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 255-260.
  18. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  19. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2008. "Five Facts about Prices: A Reevaluation of Menu Cost Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 123(4), pages 1415-1464, November.
  20. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Economics Working Papers 341, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  21. Sbordone, A.M., 1998. "Prices and Unit Labor Costs: a New Test of Price Stickiness," Papers 653, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  22. West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Specification Test for Speculative Bubbles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(3), pages 553-80, August.
  23. Engel, Charles & West, Kenneth D., 2006. "Taylor Rules and the Deutschmark: Dollar Real Exchange Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1175-1194, August.
  24. Richard Clarida & Daniel Waldman, 2007. "Is Bad News About Inflation Good News for the Exchange Rate?," NBER Working Papers 13010, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Molodtsova, Tanya & Papell, David H., 2009. "Out-of-sample exchange rate predictability with Taylor rule fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 167-180, April.
  26. Murray, Christian J. & Papell, David H., 2002. "The purchasing power parity persistence paradigm," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 1-19, January.
  27. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morten Ravn & Hélène Rey, 2005. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 120(1), pages 1-43, January.
  28. Mario J. Crucini & Mototsugu Shintani, 2002. "Persistence in Law-Of-One-Price Deviations: Evidence from Micro-Data," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0222, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics, revised Jul 2004.
  29. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  30. Leandro M. Magnusson & Sophocles Mavroeidis, 2009. "Identification-Robust Minimum Distance Estimation of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Papers 0904, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
  31. Shiu-Sheng Chen & Charles Engel, 2005. "Does 'Aggregation Bias' Explain The Ppp Puzzle?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 49-72, 02.
  32. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 1979. "Formulating and estimating dynamic linear rational expectations models," Working Papers 127, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  33. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
  34. Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 485-517, June.
  35. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2008. "Understanding International Price Differences Using Barcode Data," NBER Working Papers 14017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  36. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 1982. "Instrumental variables procedures for estimating linear rational expectations models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 263-296.
  37. Lutz Kilian & Tao Zha, 2002. "Quantifying the uncertainty about the half-life of deviations from PPP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(2), pages 107-125.
  38. Jaebeom Kim, 2005. "Convergence Rates to Purchasing Power Parity for Traded and Nontraded Goods: A Structural Error-Correction Model Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 76-86, January.
  39. Molodtsova, Tanya & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H., 2008. "Taylor rules with real-time data: A tale of two countries and one exchange rate," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages S63-S79, October.
  40. Mussa, Michael, 1982. "A Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(1), pages 74-104, February.
  41. J�n Steinsson, 2008. "The Dynamic Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate in Sticky Price Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 519-33, March.
  42. Boivin, Jean, 2006. "Has U.S. Monetary Policy Changed? Evidence from Drifting Coefficients and Real-Time Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1149-1173, August.
  43. Andrews, Donald W K & Chen, Hong-Yuan, 1994. "Approximately Median-Unbiased Estimation of Autoregressive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 187-204, April.
  44. Patrick J. Kehoe & Virgiliu Midrigan, 2007. "Sticky prices and sectoral real exchange rates," Working Papers 656, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  45. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Exactly Median-Unbiased Estimation of First Order Autoregressive/Unit Root Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 139-65, January.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Arellano, Manuel & Hansen, Lars Peter & Sentana, Enrique, 2012. "Underidentification?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(2), pages 256-280.
  2. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Durmaz, Nazif, 2009. "Bias Correction and Out-of-Sample Forecast Accuracy," MPRA Paper 16780, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Adriana Z. Fernandez & Evan F. Koenig & Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, 2008. "The relative performance of alternative Taylor rule specifications," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Jun.
  4. Maican, Florin G. & Sweeney, Richard J., 2013. "Real exchange rate adjustment in European transition countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 907-926.
  5. Kim, Hyeongwoo, 2009. "On the usefulness of the contrarian strategy across national stock markets: A grid bootstrap analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 734-744, December.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:osu:osuewp:09-03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (John Slaughter).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.