Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Aggregation and the PPP puzzle in a sticky-price model

Contents:

Author Info

  • Carlos Carvalho
  • Fernanda Nechio

Abstract

We study the purchasing power parity (PPP) puzzle in a multi-sector, two-country, sticky- price model. Across sectors, firms differ in the extent of price stickiness, in accordance with recent microeconomic evidence on price setting in various countries. Combined with local currency pricing, this leads sectoral real exchange rates to have heterogeneous dynamics. We show analytically that in this economy, deviations of the real exchange rate from PPP are more volatile and persistent than in a counterfactual one-sector world economy that features the same average frequency of price changes, and is otherwise identical to the multi-sector world economy. When simulated with a sectoral distribution of price stickiness that matches the microeconomic evidence for the U.S. economy, the model produces a half-life of deviations from PPP of 39 months. In contrast, the half-life of such deviations in the counterfactual one-sector economy is only slightly above one year. As a by-product, our model provides a decomposition of this difference in persistence that allows a structural interpretation of the different approaches found in the empirical literature on aggregation and the real exchange rate. In particular, we reconcile the apparently conflicting findings that gave rise to the "PPP Strikes Back debate" (Imbs et al. 2005a,b and Chen and Engel 2005).

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/papers/2010/wp10-06bk.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Working Paper Series with number 2010-06.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2010-06

Contact details of provider:
Postal: P.O. Box 7702, San Francisco, CA 94120-7702
Phone: (415) 974-2000
Fax: (415) 974-3333
Email:
Web page: http://www.frbsf.org/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Email:

Related research

Keywords: Purchasing power parity ; Prices ; Foreign exchange rates;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Fabio Ghironi & Marc J. Melitz, 2004. "International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Heterogeneous Firms," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 599, Boston College Department of Economics.
  2. Alok Johri & Amartya Lahiri, 2006. "Persistent Real Exchange Rates," 2006 Meeting Papers 281, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Justiniano, Alejandro & Primiceri, Giorgio E. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2010. "Investment shocks and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 132-145, March.
  4. V.V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2000. "Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 7869, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Ricardo Reis, 2005. "Inattentive Producers," 2005 Meeting Papers 290, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Elasticity Optimism," IMF Working Papers 09/279, International Monetary Fund.
  7. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal To Replace The New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328, November.
  8. David K. Backus & Gregor W. Smith, 1993. "Consumption and Real Exchange Rates in Dynamic Economies with Non-Traded Goods," Working Papers 1252, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  9. Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1993. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4271, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Carvalho, Carlos Viana de & Bonomo, Marco Antônio Cesar, 2005. "Imperfectly Credible Disinflation under Endogenous Time-Dependent Pricing," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 600, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  11. Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1992. "Estimating Long-Run Relationships From Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9215, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  12. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2004. "Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(5), pages 947-985, October.
  13. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2008. "Five Facts about Prices: A Reevaluation of Menu Cost Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 123(4), pages 1415-1464, November.
  14. Shiu-Sheng Chen & Charles Engel, 2005. "Does 'Aggregation Bias' Explain The Ppp Puzzle?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 49-72, 02.
  15. Etienne Gagnon, 2009. "Price Setting During Low and High Inflation: Evidence from Mexico," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 124(3), pages 1221-1263, August.
  16. Karim Abadir & Gabriel Talmain, 2001. "Aggregation, Persistence and Volatility in a Macromodel," Working Papers w200106, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  17. Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2004. "Contemporaneous aggregation of linear dynamic models in large economies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 75-102, May.
  18. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2002. "Estimating the Euler equation for output," Working Papers 02-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  19. Paul R. Bergin & Robert C. Feenstra, . "Pricing To Market, Staggered Contracts, And Real Exchange Rate Persistence," Department of Economics 99-01, California Davis - Department of Economics.
  20. Bonomo, Marco & Carvalho, Carlos, 2004. "Endogenous Time-Dependent Rules and Inflation Inertia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(6), pages 1015-41, December.
  21. Kollmann, Robert, 2001. "The exchange rate in a dynamic-optimizing business cycle model with nominal rigidities: a quantitative investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 243-262, December.
  22. Mario J. Crucini & Mototsugu Shintani & Takayuki Tsuruga, 2008. "Accounting for Persistence and Volatility of Good-Level Real Exchange Rates: The Role of Sticky Information," NBER Working Papers 14381, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Martinez-Garcia, Enrique & Sondergaard, Jens, 2009. "The real exchange rate in sticky-price models: does investment matter?," Bank of England working papers 368, Bank of England.
  24. Andrew Atkeson & Ariel Burstein, 2008. "Pricing-to-market, trade costs, and international relative prices," Staff Report 404, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  25. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morten Ravn & Hélène Rey, 2005. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 120(1), pages 1-43, January.
  26. Carlos Carvalho & Fernanda Nechio, 2010. "Aggregation and the PPP puzzle in a sticky-price model," Working Paper Series 2010-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  27. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2010. "Monetary Non-Neutrality in a Multisector Menu Cost Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 125(3), pages 961-1013, August.
  28. Carvalho Carlos, 2006. "Heterogeneity in Price Stickiness and the Real Effects of Monetary Shocks," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 1-58, December.
  29. Gita Gopinath & Roberto Rigobon, 2008. "Sticky Borders," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 123(2), pages 531-575, 05.
  30. Mario J. Crucini & Mototsugu Shintani, 2006. "Persistence in Law-of-One-Price Deviations: Evidence from Micro-data," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000311, UCLA Department of Economics.
  31. Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2008. "Endogenous information, menu costs and inflation persistence," NBER Working Papers 14184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  32. Imbs, Jean & Mumtaz, Haroon & Ravn, Morten O. & Rey, Hélène, 2005. "'Aggregation Bias' DOES Explain the PPP Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 5237, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  33. Gita Gopinath & Oleg Itskhoki & Roberto Rigobon, 2007. "Currency Choice and Exchange Rate Pass-through," NBER Working Papers 13432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  34. Barro, Robert J, 1972. "A Theory of Monopolistic Price Adjustment," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(1), pages 17-26, January.
  35. Jon Steinsson, 2005. "The Dynamic Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate in Sticky Price Models," Economics wp28_jonst, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
  36. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
  37. Laura Mayoral & Maria Dolores Gadea, 2009. "Analyzing aggregate real exchange rate persistence through the lens of sectoral data," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 787.09, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
  38. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
  39. Ball, Laurence & Romer, David, 1990. "Real Rigidities and the Non-neutrality of Money," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(2), pages 183-203, April.
  40. Marco Bonomo & Carlos Carvalho & René Garcia, 2010. "State-dependent pricing under infrequent information: a unified framework," Staff Reports 455, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  41. Andrews, Donald W K & Chen, Hong-Yuan, 1994. "Approximately Median-Unbiased Estimation of Autoregressive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 187-204, April.
  42. Felipe Schwartzman & Carlos Carvalho, 2008. "Heterogeneous Price Setting Behavior and Monetary Non-neutrality: Some General Results," 2008 Meeting Papers 1040, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  43. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  44. Emmanuel Dhyne & Luis J. Alvarez & Herve Le Bihan & Giovanni Veronese & Daniel Dias & Johannes Hoffmann & Nicole Jonker & Patrick Lunnemann & Fabio Rumler & Jouko Vilmunen, 2006. "Price Changes in the Euro Area and the United States: Some Facts from Individual Consumer Price Data," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 171-192, Spring.
  45. Carlos Carvalho, 2005. "Heterogeneity in Price Setting and the Real Effects of Monetary Shocks," Macroeconomics 0509017, EconWPA, revised 12 Sep 2005.
  46. Benigno, Gianluca, 2004. "Real exchange rate persistence and monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 473-502, April.
  47. Patrick J. Kehoe & Virgiliu Midrigan, 2007. "Sticky prices and sectoral real exchange rates," Working Papers 656, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

Lists

This item is featured on the following reading lists or Wikipedia pages:
  1. Aggregation and the PPP Puzzle in a Sticky-Price Model (AER 2011) in ReplicationWiki

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2010-06. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Diane Rosenberger).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.