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Imperfectly credible disinflation under endogenous time-dependent pricing

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  • Marco Bonomo
  • Carlos Carvalho

Abstract

The real effects of an imperfectly credible disinflation depend critically on the extent of price rigidity. Therefore, the study of how policymakers' credibility affects the outcome of an announced disinflation should include an analysis of the determinants of the frequency of price adjustments. In this paper, we examine how credibility affects the outcome of a disinflation in a model with endogenous time-dependent pricing rules. Both the initial degree of price rigidity, calculated optimally, and, more notably, changes in the duration of price spells during disinflation play an important role in explaining the effects of imperfect credibility. We initially consider the costs of disinflation when the degree of credibility is fixed, and then allow agents to use Bayes' rule to update beliefs about the "type" of monetary authority that they face. In both cases, the interaction between the endogeneity of time-dependent rules and imperfect credibility increases the output costs of disinflation. The pattern of the output response is more realistic in the case with learning.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 355.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:355

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Keywords: Inflation (Finance) ; Pricing ; Monetary policy ; Price levels;

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Cited by:
  1. Renato G. Fl�res & Maria Paula Fontoura & Rog�rio Guerra Santos, 2007. "Foreign Direct Investment Spillovers in Portugal: Additional Lessons from a Country Study," European Journal of Development Research, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 372-390.
  2. Torres-Martínez, Juan Pablo & Araújo, Aloísio Pessoa de & Páscoa, Mario Rui, 2006. "Bubbles, Collateral and Monetary Equilibrium," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 614, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  3. Demery, David, 2012. "State-dependent pricing and the non-neutrality of money," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 933-944.
  4. Hofstetter, Marc, 2010. "Sticky prices and moderate inflation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 535-546, March.
  5. Marco Bonomo & Marcelo Medeiros & Arnildo Correa, 2011. "Estimating Strategic Complementarity in a State-Dependent Pricing Model," 2011 Meeting Papers 691, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Lynne Evans & Anamaria Nicolae, 2010. "Imperfectly-Credible Disinflation of Small Inflations," Working Papers 2010_01, Durham University Business School.
  7. James Yetman, 2007. "Explaining hump-shaped inflation responses to monetary policy shocks," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(6), pages 605-617.
  8. Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão & Watanuki, Masakazu, 2006. "Integration Options for Mercosul - An Investigation Using the AMIDA Model," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 610, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  9. Rivano, Ricardo de Oliveira & Wallace, Neil, 2006. "New models of old(?) payment questions," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 619, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  10. Carlos Carvalho & Fernanda Nechio, 2010. "Aggregation and the PPP puzzle in a sticky-price model," Working Paper Series 2010-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  11. Cysne, Rubens Penha, 2006. "Income Inequality in a Job-Search Model With Heterogeneous Discount Factors (Revised Version, Forthcoming 2006, Revista Economia)," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 611, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  12. Monteiro, Paulo Klinger, 2006. "First-Price Auction Symmetric Equilibria with a General Distribution," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 616, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  13. Cysne, Rubens Penha, 2006. "An Intra-Household Approach to the Welfare Costs of Inflation (Revised Version, Forthcoming 2006, Estudos Econômicos)," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 612, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  14. Bonomo, Marco Antônio Cesar & Terra, Maria Cristina T., 2005. "Special Interests and Political Business Cycles," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 597, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  15. Carvalho Carlos, 2006. "Heterogeneity in Price Stickiness and the Real Effects of Monetary Shocks," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 1-58, December.
  16. Iana Ferrão de Almeida, 2011. "DesinflaçõesMonetárias sob Heterogeneidade e Regras EndógenasDependentes do Tempo," Anais do XXXVII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 37th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 51, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].

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