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The Impact of Imperfect Credibility in a Transition to Price Stability

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Author Info
Anamaria Nicolae ()
Charles Nolan ()

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Abstract

In this paper we study the impact of a temporary lack of credibility in a transition to price stability. We quantify the effects of a period of disinflation on temporary output losses, and the impact of the lack of credibility on the optimal speed on disinflation. We demonstrate that the “disinflationary booms” found by Ball (1994) and Ireland (1997) may or may not disappear in an environment with imperfect credibility, depending on the speed of learning relative to the speed of disinflation. Finally we enquire whether the speed of the Volcker disinflation was excessive or not.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis in its series CDMA Working Paper Series with number 0402.

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Date of creation: Oct 2004
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Publication status: Forthcoming in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking
Handle: RePEc:san:cdmawp:0402

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Related research
Keywords: Price stability; imperfect credibility; optimal speed of disinflation.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Thomas J. Sargent, 1982. "The Ends of Four Big Inflations," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation: Causes and Effects, pages 41-98 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Peter N. Ireland, 1995. "Optimal disinflationary paths," Working Paper 95-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural-Rate Model," NBER Working Papers 0807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Erceg, Christopher J. & Levin, Andrew T., 2003. "Imperfect credibility and inflation persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 915-944, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Benabou, R. & Konieczny, J.D., 1993. "On Inflation and Output with Costly Price Changes: A Simple Unifying Result," Working Papers 93006, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics.
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  6. Robert King & Alexander L. Wolman, 1999. "What Should the Monetary Authority Do When Prices Are Sticky?," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 349-404 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  7. Ireland, Peter N, 1997. "Stopping Inflations, Big and Small," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 759-75, November.
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  8. Danziger, Leif, 1988. "Costs of Price Adjustment and the Welfare Economics of Inflation and Disinflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 633-46, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer, 1988. "The New Keynsesian Economics and the Output-Inflation Trade-off," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1988-1), pages 1-82. [Downloadable!]
  10. Lucas, Robert Jr. & Stokey, Nancy L., 1983. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 55-93. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Stefania Albanesi & V. V. Chari & Lawrence J. Christiano, 2003. "Expectation Traps and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 70(4), pages 715-741, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Aubhik Khan & Robert G. King & Alexander L. Wolman, 2003. "Optimal Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 70(4), pages 825-860, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Ball, Laurence, 1995. "Disinflation with imperfect credibility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 5-23, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Robert J. Gordon, 1982. "Why Stopping Inflation May Be Costly: Evidence from Fourteen Historical Episodes," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation: Causes and Effects, pages 11-40 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Tatiana Damjanovic & Charles Nolan, 2005. " Some Welfare Implications of Optimal Stabilization Policy in an Economy with Capital and Sticky Prices," CDMA Working Paper Series 0509, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Marco Bonomo & Carlos Carvalho, 2008. "Imperfectly credible disinflation under endogenous time-dependent pricing," Staff Reports 355, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Marco Bonomo & Carlos Viana de Carvalho, 2005. "Endogenous Time-Dependent Rules and the Costs of Disinflation with Imperfect Credibility," Macroeconomics 0509004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Benoît Mojon, 2005. "When did unsystematic monetary policy have an effect on inflation?," Working Paper Series 559, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Tatiana Damjanovic & Charles Nolan, 2006. " Relative Price Distortions and Inflation Persistence," CDMA Working Paper Series 0611, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  6. Julia Lendvai, 2006. "Inflation dynamics and regime shifts," Working Paper Series 684, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Guido Ascari & Tiziano Ropele, 2009. "Disinflation in a DSGE Perspective: Sacrifice Ratio or Welfare Gain Ratio?," Kiel Working Papers 1499, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  8. Lynne Evans & Anamaria Nicolae, 2008. "The Output Effect Of Stopping Inflation When Velocity Is Time Varying," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 3(2), pages 60-77, June. [Downloadable!]
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