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The Impact of Imperfect Credibility in a Transition to Price Stability

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Author Info
Nicolae, Anamaria
Nolan, Charles

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Abstract

In this paper we study the impact of a temporary lack of credibility in a transition to price stability. We quantify the effects of a period of disinflation on temporary output losses, and the impact of the lack of credibility on the optimal speed of disinflation. We demonstrate that the "disinflationary booms" found by Ball (1994) and Ireland (1997) may or may not disappear in an environment with imperfect credibility, depending on the speed of learning relative to the speed of disinflation. Finally, we enquire whether the speed of the Volcker disinflation was excessive or not.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/mcb.2006.0022
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 38 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 47-66
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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:38:y:2006:i:1:p:47-66

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Lucas, Robert Jr. & Stokey, Nancy L., 1983. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 55-93. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Peter N. Ireland, 1995. "Optimal disinflationary paths," Working Paper 95-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Peter N. Ireland, 1997. "Stopping inflations, big and small," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 759-782.
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  5. Erceg, Christopher J. & Levin, Andrew T., 2003. "Imperfect credibility and inflation persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 915-944, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Stefania Albanesi & V. V. Chari & Lawrence J. Christiano, 2003. "Expectation Traps and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 70(4), pages 715-741, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Aubhik Khan & Robert G. King & Alexander L. Wolman, 2003. "Optimal Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 70(4), pages 825-860, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Benabou, Roland & Konieczny, Jerzy D, 1994. "On Inflation and Output with Costly Price Changes: A Simple Unifying Result," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 290-97, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Ball, Laurence, 1995. "Disinflation with imperfect credibility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 5-23, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Danziger, Leif, 1988. "Costs of Price Adjustment and the Welfare Economics of Inflation and Disinflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 633-46, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Tatiana Damjanovic & Charles Nolan, 2005. " Some Welfare Implications of Optimal Stabilization Policy in an Economy with Capital and Sticky Prices," CDMA Working Paper Series 0509, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Marco Bonomo & Carlos Viana de Carvalho, 2005. "Endogenous Time-Dependent Rules and the Costs of Disinflation with Imperfect Credibility," Macroeconomics 0509004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Benoît Mojon, 2005. "When did unsystematic monetary policy have an effect on inflation?," Working Paper Series 559, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Marco Bonomo & Carlos Viana de Carvalho, 2005. "Imperfectly Credible Disinflation under Endogenous Time-Dependent Pricing," Macroeconomics 0509005, EconWPA, revised 09 Sep 2005. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Tatiana Damjanovic & Charles Nolan, 2006. " Relative Price Distortions and Inflation Persistence," CDMA Working Paper Series 0611, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  6. Julia Lendvai, 2006. "Inflation dynamics and regime shifts," Working Paper Series 684, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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