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Imperfectly Credible Disinflation under Endogenous Time-Dependent Pricing

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  • Carvalho, Carlos Viana de
  • Bonomo, Marco Antônio Cesar

Abstract

The real effects of an imperfectly credible disinflation depend critically on the extent of price rigidity. Therefore, the study of how policymakers' credibility affects the outcome of an announced disinflation should include an analysis of the determinants of the frequency of price adjustments. In this paper, we examine how credibility affects the outcome of a disinflation in a model with endogenous time-dependent pricing rules. Both the initial degree of price rigidity, calculated optimally, and, more notably, changes in the duration of price spells during disinflation play an important role in explaining the effects of imperfect credibility. We initially consider the costs of disinflation when the degree of credibility is fixed, and then allow agents to use Bayes' rule to update beliefs about the "type" of monetary authority that they face. In both cases, the interaction between the endogeneity of time-dependent rules and imperfect credibility increases the output costs of disinflation. The pattern of the output response is more realistic in the case with learning.

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Paper provided by FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil) in its series Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) with number 600.

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Date of creation: 01 Aug 2005
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Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgewp:600

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Iana Ferrão de Almeida, 2011. "DesinflaçõesMonetárias sob Heterogeneidade e Regras EndógenasDependentes do Tempo," Anais do XXXVII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 37th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 51, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  2. Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão & Fontoura, Maria Paula & Santos, Rogério Guerra, 2006. "Foreign direct investment spillovers in Portugal: additional lessons from a country study," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 618, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  3. Lynne Evans & Anamaria Nicolae, 2010. "Imperfectly-Credible Disinflation of Small Inflations," Working Papers 2010_01, Durham University Business School.
  4. Monteiro, Paulo Klinger, 2006. "First-Price Auction Symmetric Equilibria with a General Distribution," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 616, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  5. Cysne, Rubens Penha, 2006. "Income Inequality in a Job-Search Model With Heterogeneous Discount Factors (Revised Version, Forthcoming 2006, Revista Economia)," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 611, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  6. Hofstetter, Marc, 2010. "Sticky prices and moderate inflation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 535-546, March.
  7. Cysne, Rubens Penha, 2006. "An Intra-Household Approach to the Welfare Costs of Inflation (Revised Version, Forthcoming 2006, Estudos Econômicos)," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 612, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  8. Bonomo, Marco Antônio Cesar & Terra, Maria Cristina T., 2005. "Special Interests and Political Business Cycles," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 597, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  9. Marco Bonomo & Arnildo da Silva Correa & Marcelo Cunha Medeiros, 2013. "Estimating Strategic Complementarity in a State-Dependent Pricing Model," Working Papers Series 341, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  10. Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão & Watanuki, Masakazu, 2006. "Integration Options for Mercosul - An Investigation Using the AMIDA Model," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 610, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  11. James Yetman, 2007. "Explaining hump-shaped inflation responses to monetary policy shocks," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(6), pages 605-617.
  12. Aloisio Araujo & Mário R. Páscoa & Juan Pablo Torres-Martínez, 2006. "Bubbles, Collateral and Monetary Equilibrium," Levine's Working Paper Archive 122247000000001055, David K. Levine.
  13. Carvalho Carlos, 2006. "Heterogeneity in Price Stickiness and the Real Effects of Monetary Shocks," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 1-58, December.
  14. Rivano, Ricardo de Oliveira & Wallace, Neil, 2006. "New models of old(?) payment questions," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 619, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  15. Demery, David, 2012. "State-dependent pricing and the non-neutrality of money," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 933-944.

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