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Expectation traps in a New Keynesian open economy model

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David M. Arseneau

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Abstract

This paper illustrates that the introduction of a money demand distortion into an otherwise standard New Keynesian Open Economy model generates multiple discretionary equilibria. These equilibria arise in the form of expectations traps whereby the monetary authority is trapped into validating expectations of the private sector because failing to do so is costly. One implication of the model is that provided initial inflation expectations are sufficiently anchored the global Friedman rule emerges as an equilibrium under discretion. It is therefore a time-consistent outcome and hence fully sustainable even in absence of a commitment device or reputational considerations.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2004-45.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2004-45

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Related research
Keywords: Keynesian economics ; Monetary policy;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Lawrence J. Christiano & Christopher Gust, 2000. "The expectations trap hypothesis," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q II, pages 21-39. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti, 2001. "Welfare And Macroeconomic Interdependence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 116(2), pages 421-445, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Stefania Albanesi & V. V. Chari & Lawrence J. Christiano, 2002. "Expectation Traps and Monetary Policy," Macroeconomics 0201004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff., 2001. "Global Implications of Self-Oriented National Monetary Rules," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C01-120, University of California at Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2003. "Anticipated Ramsey Reforms and the Uniform Taxation Principle: the Role of International Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 9862, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," CEPR Discussion Papers 1131, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Uhlig, Harald, 2000. "Should We be Afraid of Friedman's Rule?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2548, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Aubhik Khan & Robert King & Alexander L. Wolman, 2002. "Optimal monetary policy," Working Papers 02-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Lane, Philip R., 2001. "The new open economy macroeconomics: a survey," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 235-266, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Gianluca Benigno & Pierpaolo Benigno, 2003. "Price Stability in Open Economies," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 70(4), pages 743-764, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Chari, V. V. & Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1998. "Expectation Traps and Discretion," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 462-492, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Ireland, Peter N., 1997. "Sustainable monetary policies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 87-108, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo, 2002. "International Dimensions of Optimal Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 3349, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Robert G. King & Alexander L. Wolman, 1996. "Inflation Targeting in a St. Louis Model of the 21st Century," NBER Working Papers 5507, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Robert G. King & Alexander L. Wolman, 2003. "Monetary Discretion, Pricing Complementarity and Dynamic Multiple Equilibria," NBER Working Papers 9929, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. David M. Arseneau, 2004. "Optimal Inflation in an Open Economy," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 279, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  18. Aubhik Khan & Robert G. King & Alexander L. Wolman, 2001. "The pitfalls of discretionary monetary policy," Working Papers 01-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
  19. Stefania Albanesi & V.V. Chari & Lawrence J. Christiano, 2001. "How Severe is the Time Inconsistency Problem in Monetary Policy?," NBER Working Papers 8139, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Bennett T. McCallum, 2000. "Theoretical analysis regarding a zero lower bound on nominal interest rates," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 870-935.
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  21. Robert King & Alexander L. Wolman, 1999. "What Should the Monetary Authority Do When Prices Are Sticky?," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 349-404 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  22. Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2002. "A simple approach to international monetary policy coordination," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 177-196, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. David Bowman & Brian M. Doyle, 2003. "New Keynesian, open-economy models and their implications for monetary policy," International Finance Discussion Papers 762, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  24. Wolman, Alexander L, 2005. "Real Implications of the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 273-96, April.
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  25. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Tille, Cedric, 2001. "The role of consumption substitutability in the international transmission of monetary shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 421-444, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Neiss, Katharine S, 1999. "Discretionary Inflation in a General Equilibrium Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(3), pages 357-74, August.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Dudley Cooke, 2006. "Openness and Inflation," Economics Discussion Papers 621, University of Essex, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. David Arseneau, 2007. "The Inflation Tax in an Open Economy with Imperfect Competition," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(1), pages 126-147, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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