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Confidence Intervals for Half-life Deviations from Purchasing Power Parity

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Rossi, Barbara

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Abstract

According to the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) theory, real exchange rate fluctuations are mainly caused by transitory shocks. The theory fits well one empirical feature of the data, namely the short-run volatility of real exchange rates, but also implies that shocks should die away in one to two years (the time interval compatible with price and wage stickiness). Existing point estimates of half-life deviations from PPP are in the order of 3 to 5 years, too big to be reconciled with the PPP. The scope of this paper is to assess how much uncertainty there is around these point estimates. We construct confidence intervals that are robust to high persistence in the presence of small sample sizes. The empirical evidence suggests that the lower bound of the confidence interval is around 4 to 6 quarters for most currencies. With a few exceptions, the results show that the data are not inconsistent with the PPP theory, although we cannot provide conclusive evidence in favor of PPP either.

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Paper provided by Duke University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 02-08.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:duk:dukeec:02-08

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F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General

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  2. Georgios Chortareas & George Kapetanios, 2005. "How Puzzling is the PPP Puzzle? An Alternative Half-Life Measure of convergence to PPP," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 36, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Elena Pesavento, 2006. "Near-Optimal Unit Root Tests with Stationary Covariates with Better Finite Sample Size," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/18, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Jae Kim & Param Silvapulle & Rob J. Hyndman, 2006. "Half-Life Estimation based on the Bias-Corrected Bootstrap: A Highest Density Region Approach," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 11/06, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Dimitrios Malliaropulos & Ekaterini Panopoulou & Nikitas Pittis & Theologos Pantelidis, 2006. "The Contribution of Growth and Interest Rate Differentials to the Persistence of Real Exchange Rates," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp135, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Roman Frydman & Michael D. Goldberg & Søren Johansen & Katarina Juselius, 2009. "A Resolution of the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle: Imperfect Knowledge and Long Swings," CREATES Research Papers 2009-01, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morton O. Ravn & Helene Rey, 2002. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 9372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Claude Lopez & Christian J. Murray & David H. Papell, 2003. "Median-Unbiased Estimation in DF-GLS Regressions and the PPP Puzzle," University of Cincinnati, Economics Working Papers Series 2003-07, University of Cincinnati, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Fanelli, Luca & Paruolo, Paolo, 2007. "Speed of Adjustment in Cointegrated Systems," MPRA Paper 9174, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  10. Christian Dreger, 2008. "Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Affect the Real Interest Parity Condition?," Working Paper / FINESS 1.1c, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Jayasuriya, Sisira & Kim, Jae & Kumar, Parmod, 2007. "International and Internal Market Integration in Indian agriculture: A study of the Indian Rice Market," 106th Seminar, October 25-27, 2007, Montpellier, France 7935, European Association of Agricultural Economists. [Downloadable!]
  12. Mototsugu Shintani, 2002. "A Nonparametric Measure of Convergence Toward Purchasing Power Parity," Working Papers 0219, Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University, revised Jul 2004. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Claude Lopez & Christian J. Murray & David H. Papell, 2003. "State of the Art Unit Root Tests and the PPP Puzzle," Macroeconomics 0310009, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  14. Chan, Tze-Haw, 2008. "International Parities among China and Her Major Trading Partners in Asia Pacific," MPRA Paper 15504, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Apr 2009. [Downloadable!]
  15. Sofiane H. Sekioua, 2004. "Real interest parity (RIP) over the 20th century: New evidence based on confidence intervals for the dominant root and half-lives of shocks," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 91, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
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