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Aggregation is not the solution: the PPP puzzle strikes back

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  • M. Dolores Gadea

    (University of Zaragoza, Spain)

  • Laura Mayoral

    (Institute for Economic Analysis (CSIC), Barcelona, Spain)

Abstract

Recently, Imbs, Mumtaz, Ravn and Rey (2005, hereinafter IMRR) have argued that much of the purchasing power parity (PPP) puzzle is due to upwardly biased estimates of persistence. According to them, the source of the bias is the existence of heterogeneous price adjustment dynamics at the sectoral level that established time series or panel data methods fail to control for. This paper re-examines this claim in two steps. Firstly, we demonstrate that IMRR's measures of sectoral persistence are systematically downwardly biased because they are based on an inaccurate definition of the 'average' impulse response function (IRF). We then show that standard estimates of shock persistence are recovered after this bias is corrected. Secondly, building on the results in Mayoral (2008), which prove that aggregate and micro models induce the same shock persistence behavior, we show that estimates based on aggregate and sectoral exchange rates are, in fact, highly consistent. Thus, aggregation is not the solution to the PPP puzzle. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 24 (2009)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
Pages: 875-894

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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:24:y:2009:i:6:p:875-894

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  1. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, 07.
  2. Michael, Panos & Nobay, A Robert & Peel, David A, 1997. "Transactions Costs and Nonlinear Adjustment in Real Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 862-79, August.
  3. Gadea, Maria-Dolores & Montanes, Antonio & Reyes, Marcelo, 2004. "The European Union currencies and the US dollar: from post-Bretton-Woods to the Euro," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(7-8), pages 1109-1136.
  4. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie & Fujii, Eiji, 2001. "Market Structure and the Persistence of Sectoral Real Exchange Rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(2), pages 95-114, April.
  5. Claude Lopez & Christian J. Murray & David H. Papell, 2013. "Median-unbiased estimation in DF-GLS regressions and the PPP puzzle," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(4), pages 455-464, February.
  6. Christian J. Murray & David H. Papell, 2000. "The Purchasing Power Parity Persistence Paradigm," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0017, Econometric Society.
  7. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2000. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt0sx02651, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  8. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2004. "Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(5), pages 947-985, October.
  9. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morten Ravn & Hélène Rey, 2005. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 120(1), pages 1-43, January.
  10. Chowdhury, Ibrahim & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2002. "Non-Linear Dynamics in Deviations from the Law of One Price: A Broad-Based Empirical Study," CEPR Discussion Papers 3377, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
  12. Lopez, Claude & Murray, Christian J & Papell, David H, 2005. "State of the Art Unit Root Tests and Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 361-69, April.
  13. Andrews, Donald W K & Chen, Hong-Yuan, 1994. "Approximately Median-Unbiased Estimation of Autoregressive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 187-204, April.
  14. Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2004. "Contemporaneous aggregation of linear dynamic models in large economies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 75-102, May.
  15. Gary Koop, 1995. "Bayesian Analysis of Long Memory and Persistence using ARFIMA Models," Working Papers gkoop-95-01, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  16. Rossi, Barbara, 2002. "Confidence Intervals for Half-life Deviations from Purchasing Power Parity," Working Papers 02-08, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  17. Shiu-Sheng Chen & Charles Engel, 2005. "Does 'Aggregation Bias' Explain The Ppp Puzzle?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 49-72, 02.
  18. Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1992. "Estimating Long-Run Relationships From Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9215, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  19. Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 218-230, May.
  20. Christian Murray & David Papell, 2005. "The purchasing power parity puzzle is worse than you think," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 783-790, October.
  21. Lewbel, Arthur, 1994. "Aggregation and Simple Dynamics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 905-18, September.
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  23. Imbs, Jean & Mumtaz, Haroon & Ravn, Morten O. & Rey, Hélène, 2005. "'Aggregation Bias' DOES Explain the PPP Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 5237, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  24. Hegwood, Natalie D & Papell, David H, 1998. "Quasi Purchasing Power Parity," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(4), pages 279-89, October.
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Cited by:
  1. Laura Mayoral & Maria Dolores Gadea, 2009. "Analyzing aggregate real exchange rate persistence through the lens of sectoral data," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 787.09, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
  2. Chang, Ming Jen & Lin, Chang Ching & Yin, Shou-Yung, 2011. "The behavior of real exchange rates: the case of Japan," MPRA Paper 35447, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Mayoral, Laura & Dolores Gadea, María, 2011. "Aggregate real exchange rate persistence through the lens of sectoral data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 290-304.

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