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Detecting Structural Breaks: Exchange Rates in Transition Economies

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  • Evzen Kocenda

    (CERGE-EI ; W.Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Business School ; CEPR)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to provide evidence about the existence or non- existence of structural breaks in exchange rates of European transition economies. We used the testing procedure of Vogelsang (1997) that allows for detecting a break at an unknown date in the trend function of a dynamic univariate time series. The procedure does not impose restrictions on the nature of data since it allows trending and unit- root regressors. The results depend in a striking way on the economic climate of a particular country. In Balkan countries, which belong to less stable economies, the measures adopted by monetary authorities indeed brought about a structural break in exchange rate behavior. In more stable transition economies, such as those in Central Europe, the monetary steps tended to stabilize the exchange rate behavior. Finally, the exchange rates of the Baltic countries offer mixed results.

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File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/dev/papers/0012/0012009.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Development and Comp Systems with number 0012009.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: 16 Feb 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpdc:0012009

Note: Type of Document - Acrobat PDF; pages: 21 ; figures: included
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

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Keywords: Exchange rate; Transition; Structural change; Monetary policy;

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References

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  1. Ng, S. & Perron, P., 1994. "Unit Root Tests ARMA Models with Data Dependent Methods for the Selection of the Truncation Lag," Cahiers de recherche 9423, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  2. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1996. "Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 11-30, January.
  3. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
  4. Eric Zivot & Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 944, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  5. Vogelsang, Timothy J., 1997. "Wald-Type Tests for Detecting Breaks in the Trend Function of a Dynamic Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(06), pages 818-848, December.
  6. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  7. Alston Flynn, N. & Boucher, Janice L., 1993. "Tests of long-run Purchasing Power Parity using alternative methodologies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 109-122.
  8. Campbell, John & Perron, Pierre, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," Scholarly Articles 3374863, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  9. Yangru Wu, 1997. "The trend behavior of real exchange rates: Evidence from OECD countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 133(2), pages 282-296, 06.
  10. Dan Ben-David & David H. Papell, 1997. "International Trade and Structural Change," NBER Working Papers 6096, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Vogelsang, T.I. & Perron, P., 1991. "Nonstationary and Level Shifts With An Application To Purchasing Power Parity," Papers 359, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  12. Peter J. Quirk, 1994. "Fixed or Floating Exchange Regimes," IMF Working Papers 94/134, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Bai, Jushan, 1997. "Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(03), pages 315-352, June.
  14. repec:cup:etheor:v:13:y:1997:i:3:p:315-52 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Sachs, Jeffrey D, 1996. "Economic Transition and the Exchange-Rate Regime," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 147-52, May.
  16. Culver, Sarah E. & Papell, David H., 1995. "Real exchange rates under the gold standard: can they be explained by the trend break model?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 539-548, August.
  17. repec:cup:etheor:v:13:y:1997:i:6:p:818-49 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Hegwood, Natalie D & Papell, David H, 1998. "Quasi Purchasing Power Parity," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(4), pages 279-89, October.
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Cited by:
  1. Jörg Rahn, 2004. "Bilaterial equilibrium exchange rates of EU accession countries against the euro," Macroeconomics 0401010, EconWPA.
  2. Rahn, Jörg, 2003. "Bilaterial equilibrium exchange rates of EU accession countries against the euro," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2003, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  3. Jayanthakumaran, Kankesu & Pahlavani, Mosayeb, 2006. "Australia and New Zealand CER Agreement and Breakpoints in Bilateral Trade: An Application of the Wald-type Test," Economics Working Papers wp06-06, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.

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