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Macroeconomic sources of foreign exchange risk in new EU members

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  • Kocenda, Evzen
  • Poghosyan, Tigran

Abstract

We address the issue of foreign exchange risk and its macroeconomic determinants in several new EU members. We derive the observable macroeconomic factors--consumption and inflation--using the stochastic discount factor (SDF) approach. The joint distribution of excess returns in the foreign exchange market and the factors are modeled using a multivariate GARCH-in-mean specification. Our findings show that both real and nominal factors play important roles in explaining the variability of the foreign exchange risk premium. Both types of factors should be included in monetary general equilibrium models employed to study excess returns. To contribute to the further stability of domestic currencies, the new EU members should strive to implement stabilization policies aimed at achieving nominal as well as real convergence with the core EU members.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

Volume (Year): 33 (2009)
Issue (Month): 11 (November)
Pages: 2164-2173

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:33:y:2009:i:11:p:2164-2173

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Keywords: Foreign exchange risk Time-varying risk premium Stochastic discount factor Multivariate GARCH-in-mean New EU member countries;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Evžen Kočenda & Mathilde Maurel & Gunther Schnabl, 2012. "Short- and long-term growth effects of exchange rate adjustment," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00748599, HAL.
  2. Ligon, James A. & Liu, Hao-Chen, 2013. "The relation of trade size and price contribution in a traditional foreign exchange brokered market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1024-1045.
  3. Evžen Kocenda & Mathilde Maurel & Gunther Schnabl, 2012. "Short-Term and Long-Term Growth Effects of Exchange Rate Adjustment," CESifo Working Paper Series 4018, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Evžen Koèenda & Tigran Poghosyan, 2010. "Exchange Rate Risk in Central European Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(1), pages 22-39, February.
  5. Kodongo, Odongo & Ojah, Kalu, 2011. "Foreign exchange risk pricing and equity market segmentation in Africa," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 2295-2310, September.
  6. Nagayasu, Jun, 2012. "The Forward Premium Puzzle And Risk Premiums," MPRA Paper 42472, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Evzen Kocenda & Vit Bubak & Filip Zikes, 2011. "Volatility Transmission in Emerging European Foreign Exchange Markets," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1020, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  8. Richard Frensch & Jan Hanousek & Evzen Kocenda, 2013. "Specialization, gravity, and European trade in final goods," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1054, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  9. Hubert Gabrisch & Lucjan T Orlowski, 2011. "Extreme Risks in Financial Markets and Monetary Policies of the Euro-Candidates," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(4), pages 511-534, December.
  10. Balazs Egert & Evžen Kocenda, 2013. "The Impact of Macro News and Central Bank Communication on Emerging European Forex Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 4288, CESifo Group Munich.
  11. Herbert S. Buscher & Hubert Gabrisch, 2011. "What Might Central Banks Lose or Gain in Case of Euro Adoption – A GARCH-Analysis of Money Market Rates for Sweden, Denmark and the UK," IWH Discussion Papers 9, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
  12. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús & Fidrmuc, Jarko & Hake, Mariya, 2014. "Demand and supply drivers of foreign currency loans in CEECs: A meta-analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 26-42.
  13. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2012. "Financial crisis and extreme market risks: Evidence from Europe," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 120-130.
  14. Hubert Gabrisch & Lucjan T. Orlowski, 2010. "Interest Rate Convergence in Euro-Candidate Countries: Volatility Dynamics of Sovereign Bond Yields," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 46(6), pages 69-85, November.
  15. Robert Kelm, 2010. "The Exchange Rate and Two Price Inflations in Poland in the Period 1999-2009. Do Globalization and Balassa-Samuelson Effect Matter?," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, vol. 2(4), pages 315-349, September.

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