Mind the Break! Accounting for Changing Patterns of Growth during Transition

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Mind the Break! Accounting for Changing Patterns of Growth during Transition

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Jan Fidrmuc ()
Ariane Tichit ()

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Abstract

We argue that econometric analyses based on transition countries’ data can be vulnerable to structural breaks across time and/or countries. We demonstrate this argument by identifying structural breaks in growth regressions estimated with data for 25 countries and 12 years. Our method allows identification of structural breaks at a-priori unknown points in space or time. The only prior assumption is that breaks occur in relation to progress in implementing market-oriented reforms. We find robust evidence that the pattern of growth in transition has changed at least two times, yielding thus three different models of growth associated with different stages of reform. The speed with which individual countries progress through these stages differs dramatically, however.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School in its series William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series with number 2004-643.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 01 Jan 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2004-643

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Article
- Fidrmuc, Jan & Tichit, Ariane, 2009. "Mind the break! Accounting for changing patterns of growth during transition," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 138-154, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Paper
- Jan Fidrmuc & Ariane Tichit, 2007. "Mind the Break! Accounting for Changing Patterns of Growth during Transition," CEDI Discussion Paper Series 07-06, Centre for Economic Development and Institutions(CEDI), Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
- Ariane TICHIT MINISCLOUX & Jan FIDRMUC, 2007. "Mind the Break! Accounting for Changing Patterns of Growth during Transition," Working Papers 200721, CERDI.
- Fidrmuc, Jan & Tichit, Ariane, 2007. "Mind the Break! Accounting for Changing Patterns of Growth during Transition," CEPR Discussion Papers 6382, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Jan Fidrmuc & Ariane Tichit, 2009. "Mind the Break! Accounting for Changing Patterns of Growth during Transition," CEDI Discussion Paper Series 09-02, Centre for Economic Development and Institutions(CEDI), Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
- Ariane TICHIT MINISCLOUX & Jan FIDRMUC, 2008. "Mind the Break! Accounting for Changing Patterns of Growth during Transition," Working Papers 200818, CERDI. [Downloadable!]

Find related papers by JEL classification:
O47 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
P26 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - Political Economy
P27 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - Performance and Prospects

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2004-05-09 (All new papers)
NEP-DEV-2004-05-09 (Development)
NEP-MFD-2004-05-09 (Microfinance)
NEP-TRA-2004-05-09 (Transition Economics)

References listed on IDEAS
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Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluis Carrion Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2005. "Unemployment dynamics and NAIRU estimates for CEECs : A univariate approach," Working Papers in Economics 131, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia. [Downloadable!]

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