Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Reform reversals and output growth in transition economies

Contents:

Author Info

  • Merlevede Bruno

Abstract

This paper tests whether there is a macroeconomic cost of a reform reversal during transition. A reform reversal is defined as a downgrading in the level of an average reform indicator. This is important both from an empirical and a theoretical point of view. In the standard empirical framework the current level of reform a.ects growth negatively, while the lagged level a.ects growth positively. This nonlinear e.ect is shown to imply a counterintuitive, short-lived, or at best an insignificant, positive e.ect of a reversal. From a theoretical point of view however, most models assume a reversal to be costly. The existence of reversal costs is even crucial for gradualist strategies to dominate big bang strategies in the presence of aggregate uncertainty. In a simultaneous equation system with growth and the level of reform as dependent variables we explicitly introduce a reversal parameter. Empirical results suggest that a reversal generates an immediate negative contribution to real output growth. Taking into account the level of reform a country achieved, a reversal is found to be more costly at higher levels of the reform indicator.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.ua.ac.be/download.aspx?c=*TEWHI&n=14362&ct=009828&e=21302
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2003013.

as in new window
Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ant:wpaper:2003013

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Prinsstraat 13, B-2000 Antwerpen
Web page: https://www.uantwerp.be/en/faculties/applied-economic-sciences/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Ratna Sahay & Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Eduardo Borensztein & Andrew Berg, 1999. "The Evolution of Output in Transition Economies - Explaining the Differences," IMF Working Papers 99/73, International Monetary Fund.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ant:wpaper:2003013. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joeri Nys).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.