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Modelling GDP in CEECs Using Smooth Transitions

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  • Neil Foster-McGregor

    ()
    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Robert Stehrer

    ()
    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

Abstract

This paper employs smooth transition models to investigate the GDP series of ten CEECs. Allowing for a transition in both trend and intercept we examine the response of GDP to reforms in CEECs. Our results indicate that in only a small of number of countries is there evidence to suggest that the impact of the reforms on long-run growth has been positive. In most cases there has been no significant impact of the transition on the trend growth rate. There also appears to be little difference in terms of the depth of recession, speed of adjustment and the impact of reforms on GDP growth depending upon whether a country adopted a gradual or a fast approach to reforms.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw in its series wiiw Working Papers with number 36.

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Date of creation: Dec 2005
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Publication status: Published as wiiw Working Paper
Handle: RePEc:wii:wpaper:36

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Keywords: CEECs; GDP growth; smooth transitions; time series analysis;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Georgescu, George, 2006. "Comerţul exterior scufundă barca economiei româneşti
    [Foreign Trade is Sinking the Romanian Economy Boat]
    ," MPRA Paper 24012, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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