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Mind the Break! Accounting for Changing Patterns of Growth during Transition

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  • Ariane TICHIT MINISCLOUX

    ()
    (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International)

  • Jan FIDRMUC

Abstract

We argue that econometric analyses based on transition countries’ data can be vulnerable to structural breaks across time and/or countries. We demonstrate this argument by identifying structural breaks in growth regressions estimated with data for 25 countries and 16 years. Our method allows identification of structural breaks at a-priori unknown points in space or time. The only prior assumption is that breaks occur in relation to progress in implementing market-oriented reforms. We find robust evidence that the pattern of growth in transition has changed at least two times, yielding thus three different models of growth associated with different stages of reform. The speed with which individual countries progress through these stages differs considerably.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CERDI in its series Working Papers with number 200721.

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Length: 27
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in , 2008, pages
Handle: RePEc:cdi:wpaper:918

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Keywords: growth; Reform; structural breaks; transition;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Evzen Kocenda & Ali M. Kutan & Taner M. Yigit, 2005. "Pilgrims to the Eurozone: How Far, How Fast?," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp279, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
  2. Jan HANOUSEK & Evžen KOČENDA, 2010. "Public investment and fiscal performance in new EU member states," Departmental Working Papers 2010-07, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
  3. Doris Hanzl-Weiss & Mario Holzner & Roman Stöllinger, 2013. "Monthly Report No. 4/2013," wiiw Monthly Reports 2013-04, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
  4. Ayala, Astrid & Blazsek, Szabolcs, 2013. "Structural breaks in public finances in Central and Eastern European countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 45-60.
  5. Neil Foster-McGregor & Robert Stehrer, 2005. "Modelling GDP in CEECs Using Smooth Transitions," wiiw Working Papers 36, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
  6. Elisabetta Falcetti & Tatiana Lysenko & Peter Sanfey, 2005. "Reforms and growth in transition: re-examining the evidence," Working Papers 90, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Office of the Chief Economist.
  7. Jindra, Björn & Giroud, Axèle & Scott-Kennel, Joanna, 2009. "Subsidiary roles, vertical linkages and economic development: Lessons from transition economies," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 167-179, April.
  8. Alexander Salhi & Andreas Kern & Martin Rößler, 2010. "Growth Patterns in the CIS-8: A Political Economy Approach," Transition Studies Review, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 686-708, December.
  9. Kocenda, Evzen, 2005. "Beware of breaks in exchange rates: Evidence from European transition countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 307-324, September.
  10. Jan Babecky & Tomas Havranek, 2013. "Structural Reforms and Growth in Transition: A Meta-Analysis," Working Papers IES 2013/14, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Oct 2013.
  11. Pääkkönen, Jenni, 2009. "Economic Freedom as a Driver for Growth in Transition," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2009, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  12. Pääkkönen, Jenni, 2010. "Economic freedom as driver of growth in transition," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 469-479, December.
  13. DELL'ANNO, Roberto & VILLA, Stefania, 2012. "Growth in Transition Countries: Big Bang versus Gradualism," CELPE Discussion Papers 122, CELPE - Centre of Labour Economics and Economic Policy, University of Salerno, Italy.
  14. Jan Babecky & Tomas Havranek, 2013. "Structural Reforms and Economic Growth: A Meta-Analysis," Working Papers 2013/08, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  15. Jan Babecky & Tomas Havranek, 2014. "Structural reforms and growth in transition," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 22(1), pages 13-42, 01.
  16. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluis Carrion Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2005. "Unemployment dynamics and NAIRU estimates for CEECs : A univariate approach," Working Papers in Economics 131, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
  17. Evzen Kocenda & Ali M. Kutan & M. Taner Yigit, 2005. "Pilgrims to Eurozone: How Far, How Fast," Departmental Working Papers 0501, Bilkent University, Department of Economics.
  18. Camarero, Mariam & Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluis & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2005. "Unemployment dynamics and NAIRU estimates for accession countries: A univariate approach," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 584-603, September.
  19. Foster, Neil & Stehrer, Robert, 2007. "Modeling transformation in CEECs using smooth transitions," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 57-86, March.
  20. Jan Hanousek & Evžen Kočenda, 2011. "Corruption and Economic Freedom Links to Public Finance and Investment in New EU Members," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2011(3), pages 310-328.
  21. Jan Hanousek & Evžen Kočenda, 2011. "Public Investment and Fiscal Performance in the New EU Member States," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 32(1), pages 43-71, 03.

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