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Mind the Break! Accounting for Changing Patterns of Growth during Transition

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Author Info
Ariane TICHIT MINISCLOUX () (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International)
Jan FIDRMUC

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Abstract

We argue that econometric analyses based on transition countries' data can be vulnerable to structural breaks across time and/or countries. We demonstrate this argument by identifying structural breaks in growth regressions estimated with data for 25 countries and 16 years. Our method allows identification of structural breaks at a-priori unknown points in space or time. The only prior assumption is that breaks occur in relation to progress in implementing market-oriented reforms. We find robust evidence that the pattern of growth in transition has changed at least two times, yielding thus three different models of growth associated with different stages of reform. The speed with which individual countries progress through these stages differs considerably.

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Paper provided by CERDI in its series Working Papers with number 200818.

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Length: 26
Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:cdi:wpaper:1012

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Related research
Keywords: Reform; growth; structural breaks; transition;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Jushan Bai, 1997. "Estimation Of A Change Point In Multiple Regression Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 551-563, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Bruno, Michael & Easterly, William, 1998. "Inflation crises and long-run growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 3-26, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Nauro F. Campos & Fabrizio Coricelli, 2002. "Growth in Transition: What We Know, What We Don't, and What We Should," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 470, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. de Melo, Martha & Denizer, Cevdet & Gelb, Alan, 1996. "Patterns of Transition from Plan to Market," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(3), pages 397-424, September.
  5. Krueger, Gary & Ciolko, Marek, 1998. "A Note on Initial Conditions and Liberalization during Transition," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 718-734, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Falcetti, Elisabetta & Raiser, Martin & Sanfey, Peter, 2002. "Defying the Odds: Initial Conditions, Reforms, and Growth in the First Decade of Transition," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 229-250, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Critical values for multiple structural change tests," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 72-78, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Wolf, H.C., 1999. "Transition Strategies: Choices and Outcomes," Princeton Studies in International Economics 85, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
  9. Roxana Radulescu & David Barlow, 2002. "The relationship between policies and growth in transition countries," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 10(3), pages 719-745, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Eduardo Borensztein & Ratna Sahay & Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Andrew Berg, 1999. "The Evolution of Output in Transition Economies - Explaining the Differences," IMF Working Papers 99/73, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Fidrmuc, Jan, 2003. "Economic reform, democracy and growth during post-communist transition," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 583-604, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Andrzej Rzońca & Piotr Ciżkowicz, 2003. "A comment on "The relationship between policies and growth in transition countries"," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 11(4), pages 743-748, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Selowsky, Marcelo & Martin, Ricardo, 1997. "Policy Performance and Output Growth in the Transition Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 349-53, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-63, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. de Melo, Martha & Denizer, Cevdet & Gelb, Alan & Tenev, Stoyan, 1997. "Circumstance and choice : the role of initial conditions and policies in transition economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1866, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  18. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
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  19. Easterly, William & Fischer, Stanley, 1995. "The Soviet Economic Decline," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 341-71, September.
  20. Campos, Nauro F., 2001. "Will the Future Be Better Tomorrow? The Growth Prospects of Transition Economies Revisited," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 663-676, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluis Carrion Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2005. "Unemployment dynamics and NAIRU estimates for CEECs : A univariate approach," Working Papers in Economics 131, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia. [Downloadable!]
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