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Mind the break! Accounting for changing patterns of growth during transition

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  • Fidrmuc, Jan
  • Tichit, Ariane

Abstract

We argue that econometric analyses of post-communist countries are vulnerable to structural breaks across time and/or countries. We demonstrate this by identifying structural breaks in growth regressions estimated for 25 countries over 18 years. The method we use allows identification of structural breaks at a priori unknown points in space or time. The only prior assumption is that breaks occur in relation to progress in implementing market-oriented reforms. We find that the pattern of growth in transition has changed at least three times, yielding four different models of growth. The speed with which individual countries progress through these stages differs considerably.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Systems.

Volume (Year): 33 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 138-154

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:33:y:2009:i:2:p:138-154

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Keywords: Growth Reform Structural breaks Transition;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jindra, Björn & Giroud, Axèle & Scott-Kennel, Joanna, 2009. "Subsidiary roles, vertical linkages and economic development: Lessons from transition economies," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 167-179, April.
  2. Ayala, Astrid & Blazsek, Szabolcs, 2013. "Structural breaks in public finances in Central and Eastern European countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 45-60.
  3. Pääkkönen, Jenni, 2009. "Economic Freedom as a Driver for Growth in Transition," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2009, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  4. Jan HANOUSEK & Evžen KOČENDA, 2010. "Public investment and fiscal performance in new EU member states," Departmental Working Papers 2010-07, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
  5. Falcetti, Elisabetta & Lysenko, Tatiana & Sanfey, Peter, 2006. "Reforms and growth in transition: Re-examining the evidence," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 421-445, September.
  6. Alexander Salhi & Andreas Kern & Martin Rößler, 2010. "Growth Patterns in the CIS-8: A Political Economy Approach," Transition Studies Review, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 686-708, December.
  7. Jan Hanousek & Evžen Kočenda, 2011. "Corruption and Economic Freedom Links to Public Finance and Investment in New EU Members," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2011(3), pages 310-328.
  8. Jan Babecky & Tomas Havranek, 2014. "Structural reforms and growth in transition," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 22(1), pages 13-42, 01.
  9. Pääkkönen, Jenni, 2010. "Economic freedom as driver of growth in transition," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 469-479, December.
  10. Kocenda, Evzen, 2005. "Beware of breaks in exchange rates: Evidence from European transition countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 307-324, September.
  11. Jan Hanousek & Evžen Kočenda, 2011. "Public Investment and Fiscal Performance in the New EU Member States," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 32(1), pages 43-71, 03.
  12. DELL'ANNO, Roberto & VILLA, Stefania, 2012. "Growth in Transition Countries: Big Bang versus Gradualism," CELPE Discussion Papers 122, CELPE - Centre of Labour Economics and Economic Policy, University of Salerno, Italy.
  13. Jan Babecky & Tomas Havranek, 2013. "Structural Reforms and Growth in Transition: A Meta-Analysis," Working Papers IES 2013/14, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Oct 2013.
  14. Evzen Kocenda & Ali M. Kutan & M. Taner Yigit, 2005. "Pilgrims to Eurozone: How Far, How Fast," Departmental Working Papers 0501, Bilkent University, Department of Economics.
  15. Camarero, Mariam & Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluis & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2005. "Unemployment dynamics and NAIRU estimates for accession countries: A univariate approach," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 584-603, September.
  16. Foster, Neil & Stehrer, Robert, 2007. "Modeling transformation in CEECs using smooth transitions," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 57-86, March.
  17. Doris Hanzl-Weiss & Mario Holzner & Roman Stöllinger, 2013. "Monthly Report No. 4/2013," wiiw Monthly Reports 2013-04, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
  18. Jan Babecky & Tomas Havranek, 2013. "Structural Reforms and Economic Growth: A Meta-Analysis," Working Papers 2013/08, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  19. Evzen Kocenda & Ali M. Kutan & Taner M. Yigit, 2005. "Pilgrims to the Eurozone: How Far, How Fast?," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp279, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
  20. Neil Foster-McGregor & Robert Stehrer, 2005. "Modelling GDP in CEECs Using Smooth Transitions," wiiw Working Papers 36, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
  21. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluis Carrion Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2005. "Unemployment dynamics and NAIRU estimates for CEECs : A univariate approach," Working Papers in Economics 131, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.

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