Reform reversals and output growth in transition economies
AbstractThis paper tests whether reform reversals during transition carry an economic cost. Reform is measured by an average reform index, while reform reversals are characterized by a drop in the average reform index. In the standard empirical framework the current level of reform affects growth negatively, while the lagged level affects growth positively. This non-linear effect implies a counterintuitive, short-lived positive effect of a reversal. In a simultaneous equation system with growth and the level of reform as dependent variables we explicitly introduce a reversal parameter. Empirical results suggest that reversals have an immediate negative impact on real output growth. Controlling for the level of reform shows that reversals are more costly at higher levels of reform. Copyright (c) The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, 2003..
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in its journal The Economics of Transition.
Volume (Year): 11 (2003)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
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Postal: One Exchange Square, London EC2A 2JN
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0967-0750
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Other versions of this item:
- Merlevede Bruno, 2003. "Reform reversals and output growth in transition economies," Working Papers 2003013, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
- B. Merlevede, 2003. "Reform Reversals and Output Growth in Transition Economies," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 03/183, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
- O57 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries
- P21 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - Planning, Coordination, and Reform
- P26 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - Political Economy
- P27 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - Performance and Prospects
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ratna Sahay & Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Eduardo Borensztein & Andrew Berg, 1999. "The Evolution of Output in Transition Economies - Explaining the Differences," IMF Working Papers 99/73, International Monetary Fund.
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