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Reform reversals and output growth in transition economies

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Author Info
Bruno Merlevede

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Abstract

This paper tests whether reform reversals during transition carry an economic cost. Reform is measured by an average reform index, while reform reversals are characterized by a drop in the average reform index. In the standard empirical framework the current level of reform affects growth negatively, while the lagged level affects growth positively. This non-linear effect implies a counterintuitive, short-lived positive effect of a reversal. In a simultaneous equation system with growth and the level of reform as dependent variables we explicitly introduce a reversal parameter. Empirical results suggest that reversals have an immediate negative impact on real output growth. Controlling for the level of reform shows that reversals are more costly at higher levels of reform. Copyright (c) The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, 2003..

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Article provided by The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in its journal The Economics of Transition.

Volume (Year): 11 (2003)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 649-669
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Handle: RePEc:bla:etrans:v:11:y:2003:i:4:p:649-669

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Eduardo Borensztein & Ratna Sahay & Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Andrew Berg, 1999. "The Evolution of Output in Transition Economies - Explaining the Differences," IMF Working Papers 99/73, International Monetary Fund.
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  1. Alejandro Simone & Alex Segura-Ubiergo & Sanjeev Gupta, 2006. "New Evidence on Fiscal Adjustment and Growth in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 06/244, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Campos, Nauro F & Horváth, Roman, 2006. "Reform Redux: Measurement, Determinants and Reversals," CEPR Discussion Papers 5673, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Yelena Kalyuzhnova & Michael Kaser, 2006. "Prudential Management of Hydrocarbon Revenues in Resource-rich Transition Economies," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 167-187, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Garbis Iradian, 2007. "Rapid Growth in Transition Economies: Panel Regression Approach," IMF Working Papers 07/170, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Vadlamannati, Krishna Chaitanya, 2008. "Do Choice & Speed Of Reforms Matter For Human Rights During Transition?," MPRA Paper 10141, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  6. Christopher Gerry & Tomasz Mickiewicz, 2006. "Inequality, Fiscal Capacity and the Political Regime: Lessons from the Post-Communist Transition," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp831, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
  7. Theo Eicher & Till Schreiber, 2006. "Structural Policies and Growth: Time Series Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Working Papers 48, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary. [Downloadable!]
  8. D. Van Den Poel, 2003. "Predicting Mail-Order Repeat Buying: Which Variables Matter?," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 03/191, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
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