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Политика Реформ, Начальные Условия И Трансформационный Спад

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  • Катышев П.К.
  • Полтерович В.М.

Abstract

Выдвигается и аргументируется гипотеза о том, что масштабы трансформационного спада в переходных экономиках в последнем десятилетии XX в. определялись не только предрефор-менными начальными условиями, но и политикой приватизации. Приведены результаты регрессионных расчетов, подтверждающие эту гипотезу. Показано, что потери ВВП за 9 лет после начала реформ были тем больше, чем радикальнее осуществлялась приватизация в начале реформ. Расчеты показывают также, что правительства выбирали начальные темпы либерализации цен и внешней торговли, учитывая начальные условия. Этим, возможно, объясняется тот факт, что в регрессиях темпы либерализации оказываются незначимыми.

Suggested Citation

  • Катышев П.К. & Полтерович В.М., 2006. "Политика Реформ, Начальные Условия И Трансформационный Спад," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 42(4), октябрь.
    • Handle: RePEc:scn:cememm:42-4-5
    Note: Москва
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    JEL classification:

    • P2 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies

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