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Политика Реформ, Начальные Условия И Трансформационный Спад

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  • Катышев П.К.
  • Полтерович В.М.

Abstract

Выдвигается и аргументируется гипотеза о том, что масштабы трансформационного спада в переходных экономиках в последнем десятилетии XX в. определялись не только предрефор-менными начальными условиями, но и политикой приватизации. Приведены результаты регрессионных расчетов, подтверждающие эту гипотезу. Показано, что потери ВВП за 9 лет после начала реформ были тем больше, чем радикальнее осуществлялась приватизация в начале реформ. Расчеты показывают также, что правительства выбирали начальные темпы либерализации цен и внешней торговли, учитывая начальные условия. Этим, возможно, объясняется тот факт, что в регрессиях темпы либерализации оказываются незначимыми.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ) in its journal Экономика и математические методы.

Volume (Year): 42 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 (октябрь)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:scn:cememm:42-4-5

Note: Москва
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Web page: http://www.cemi.rssi.ru/emm/home.htm

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  1. Sergio Godoy & Joseph Stiglitz, 2006. "Growth, Initial Conditions, Law and Speed of Privatization in Transition Countries: 11 Years Later," NBER Working Papers 11992, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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