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Политика Реформ, Начальные Условия И Трансформационный Спад
[Reform policies, initial conditions, and transformational recession]

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  • Polterovich, Victor
  • Katyshev, Pavel

Abstract

In this paper we formulate and substantiate a hypothesis that the magnitude of the transformational recession in transition economies in the last decade of 20th centaury was determined not only by initial pre-reformed conditions but also by privatization policies. Results of regression analysis that confirm this hypothesis are presented. It is shown that GDP decline during the first 9 years of reforms was the greater the more radical was privatization at the start of reforms. Our calculations also demonstrate that governments selected the starting speed of price and foreign trade liberalization taking into account initial conditions. This observation may explain the non-significance of the speed of liberalization in the regressions.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 21551.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:21551

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Keywords: rate of privatization; liberalization indices; insignificance of the liberalization rate; shadow economy;

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  1. Murrell Peter & Wang Yijiang, 1993. "When Privatization Should Be Delayed: The Effect of Communist Legacies on Organizational and Institutional Reforms," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 385-406, June.
  2. Simon Johnson & Daniel Kaufman & Andrei Shleifer, 1997. "The Unofficial Economy in Transition," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(2), pages 159-240.
  3. Polterovich, Victor, 2000. "Civic Culture and Economic Transition in Russia," MPRA Paper 20068, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Michael Alexeev & William Pyle, 2002. "A Note on Measuring the Unofficial Economy in the Former Soviet Republics," Middlebury College Working Paper Series 0230, Middlebury College, Department of Economics.
  5. Roland, Gérard & Verdier, Thierry, 1997. "Transition and the Output Fall," CEPR Discussion Papers 1636, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Ratna Sahay & Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Eduardo Borensztein & Andrew Berg, 1999. "The Evolution of Output in Transition Economies - Explaining the Differences," IMF Working Papers 99/73, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Fischer, Stanley & Sahay, Ratna & Vegh, Carlos, 1996. "Stabilization and growth in transition economies: The early experience," MPRA Paper 20631, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Berta Heybey & Peter Murrell, 1999. "The relationship between economic growth and the speed of liberalization during transition," Journal of Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 121-137.
  9. Derek C Jones, 1998. "The Economic Effects of Privatization: Evidence from a Russian Panel," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(2), pages 75-102, July.
  10. Sergio Godoy & Joseph Stiglitz, 2006. "Growth, Initial Conditions, Law and Speed of Privatization in Transition Countries: 11 Years Later," NBER Working Papers 11992, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Castanheira, Micael & Roland, Gérard, 1996. "The Optimal Speed of Transition: A General Equilibrium Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 1442, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Vladimir Popov, 2000. "Shock Therapy Versus Gradualism: The End Of The Debate (Explaining The Magnitude Of Transformational Recession)," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 1-57, April.
  13. Sachs, Jeffrey D, 1996. "The Transition at Mid Decade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 128-33, May.
  14. Kornai Janos, 1994. "Transformational Recession: The Main Causes," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 39-63, August.
  15. Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1997. "I just ran four million regressions," Economics Working Papers 201, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  16. Krueger, Gary & Ciolko, Marek, 1998. "A Note on Initial Conditions and Liberalization during Transition," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 718-734, December.
  17. Shleifer, Andrei, 1997. "Government in transition," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 385-410, April.
  18. Anders Åslund & Peter Boone & Simon Johnson, 1996. "How to Stabilize: Lessons from Post -communist Countries," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 217-314.
  19. Merlevede Bruno, 2003. "Reform reversals and output growth in transition economies," Working Papers 2003013, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
  20. Selowsky, Marcelo & Martin, Ricardo, 1997. "Policy Performance and Output Growth in the Transition Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 349-53, May.
  21. Peter Christoffersen & Peter Doyle, 2000. "From Inflation to Growth," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 8(2), pages 421-451, July.
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