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Политика Реформ, Начальные Условия И Трансформационный Спад
[Reform policies, initial conditions, and transformational recession]

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  • Polterovich, Victor
  • Katyshev, Pavel

Abstract

In this paper we formulate and substantiate a hypothesis that the magnitude of the transformational recession in transition economies in the last decade of 20th centaury was determined not only by initial pre-reformed conditions but also by privatization policies. Results of regression analysis that confirm this hypothesis are presented. It is shown that GDP decline during the first 9 years of reforms was the greater the more radical was privatization at the start of reforms. Our calculations also demonstrate that governments selected the starting speed of price and foreign trade liberalization taking into account initial conditions. This observation may explain the non-significance of the speed of liberalization in the regressions.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 21551.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:21551

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Keywords: rate of privatization; liberalization indices; insignificance of the liberalization rate; shadow economy;

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  1. Derek C Jones, 1998. "The Economic Effects of Privatization: Evidence from a Russian Panel," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(2), pages 75-102, July.
  2. Berta Heybey & Peter Murrell, 1999. "The relationship between economic growth and the speed of liberalization during transition," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 121-137.
  3. Ratna Sahay & Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Eduardo Borensztein & Andrew Berg, 1999. "The Evolution of Output in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund 99/73, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Vegh, 1996. "Stabilization and Growth in Transition Economies: The Early Experience," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 45-66, Spring.
  5. Falcetti, Elisabetta & Raiser, Martin & Sanfey, Peter, 2002. "Defying the Odds: Initial Conditions, Reforms, and Growth in the First Decade of Transition," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 229-250, June.
  6. Bruno Merlevede, 2003. "Reform reversals and output growth in transition economies," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 11(4), pages 649-669, December.
  7. Peter Doyle & Peter F. Christoffersen, 1998. "From Inflation to Growth," IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund 98/100, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-83, May.
  9. Murrell Peter & Wang Yijiang, 1993. "When Privatization Should Be Delayed: The Effect of Communist Legacies on Organizational and Institutional Reforms," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 385-406, June.
  10. Michael Alexeev & William Pyle, 2002. "A Note on Measuring the Unofficial Economy in the Former Soviet Republics," Middlebury College Working Paper Series, Middlebury College, Department of Economics 0230, Middlebury College, Department of Economics.
  11. Andrei Shleifer, 1996. "Government in Transition," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research 1783, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  12. Krueger, Gary & Ciolko, Marek, 1998. "A Note on Initial Conditions and Liberalization during Transition," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 718-734, December.
  13. Anders Åslund & Peter Boone & Simon Johnson, 1996. "How to Stabilize: Lessons from Post -communist Countries," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 217-314.
  14. Stanley Fischer & Carlos A. Végh Gramont & Ratna Sahay, 1996. "Stabilization and Growth in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund 96/31, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Simon Johnson & Daniel Kaufman & Andrei Shleifer, 1997. "The Unofficial Economy in Transition," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(2), pages 159-240.
  16. Selowsky, Marcelo & Martin, Ricardo, 1997. "Policy Performance and Output Growth in the Transition Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 349-53, May.
  17. Micael Castanheira De Moura & Gérard Roland, 2000. "The optimal speed of transition: a general equilibrium analysis," ULB Institutional Repository, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles 2013/10011, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  18. Sergio Godoy & Joseph Stiglitz, 2006. "Growth, Initial Conditions, Law and Speed of Privatization in Transition Countries: 11 Years Later," NBER Working Papers 11992, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Sachs, Jeffrey D, 1996. "The Transition at Mid Decade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 128-33, May.
  20. Polterovich, Victor, 2000. "Civic Culture and Economic Transition in Russia," MPRA Paper 20068, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  21. Gérard Roland & Thierry Verdier, 1999. "Transition and the output fall," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 7(1), pages 1-28, March.
  22. Kornai Janos, 1994. "Transformational Recession: The Main Causes," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 39-63, August.
  23. Vladimir Popov, 2000. "Shock Therapy Versus Gradualism: The End Of The Debate (Explaining The Magnitude Of Transformational Recession)," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 1-57, April.
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