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Stabilization and growth in transition economies: The early experience

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  • Fischer, Stanley
  • Sahay, Ratna
  • Vegh, Carlos

Abstract

This paper analyzes the growth and stabilization experience in 26 transition economies in eastern Europe, the former Soviet Union, and Mongolia for the period 1989-1994. Inflation rates have declined significantly in most countries following an inflation stabilization program. Growth resumes after stabilization occurs, typically with a lag of about two years. Reducing inflation thus appears to be a precondition for growth. An econometric analysis of the short-run determinants of inflation and growth illustrates the key roles of fixed exchange rates, improved fiscal balances, and structural reforms in spurring growth and lowering inflation, and confirms that inflation stabilization programs have been beneficial for growth even after controlling for structural reforms.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 20631.

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Date of creation: Apr 1996
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:20631

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Keywords: Transition; Eastern Europe; growth; reforms; stabilization; inflation; fixed exchange rates;

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  1. Philippe Aghion & Olivier J. Blanchard, 1994. "On the Speed of Transition in Central Europe," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994, Volume 9, pages 283-330 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Alan Gelb & Gary Jefferson & Inderjit Singh, 1993. "Can Communist Economies Transform Incrementally? The Experience of China," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1993, Volume 8, pages 87-150 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. De Gregorio, Jose, 1993. "Inflation, taxation, and long-run growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 271-298, June.
  4. Kornai, J., 1993. "Transformational Recession; A General Phenomenon Examined Through the Example of Hangary's Development," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research 1648, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  5. Yavlinsky Grigory & Braguinsky Serguey, 1994. "The Inefficiency of Laissez-Faire in Russia: Hysteresis Effects and the Need for Policy-Led Transformation," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 88-116, August.
  6. Alan Gelb & Gary Jefferson & Inderjit Singh, 1993. "Can communist economies transform incrementally? The experience of China," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 1(4), pages 401-435, December.
  7. Cohen, Daniel, 1995. "The Transition in Russia: Successes (Privatization, Low Unemployment...) and Failures (Mafias, Liquidity Constraints...). A Theoretical Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 1224, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Micael Castanheira De Moura & Gérard Roland, 2000. "The optimal speed of transition: a general equilibrium analysis," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10011, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  9. Stanley Fischer, 1994. "Russia and the Soviet Union Then and Now," NBER Chapters, in: The Transition in Eastern Europe, Volume 1, pages 221-258 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. de Melo, Martha & Denizer, Cevdet & Gelb, Alan, 1996. "From plan to market : patterns of transition," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1564, The World Bank.
  11. Fischer, Stanley, 1993. "The role of macroeconomic factors in growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 485-512, December.
  12. Rebelo, Sérgio, 1995. "Real Effects of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 1220, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Sachs, J.D. & Woo, W.T., 1994. "Structural Factors in the Economic Reforms of China, Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union," Papers, California Davis - Institute of Governmental Affairs 94-01, California Davis - Institute of Governmental Affairs.
  14. Thomas J. Sargent, 1981. "The ends of four big inflations," Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis 158, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  15. Carlos A. Végh, 1992. "Stopping High Inflation: An Analytical Overview," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 626-695, September.
  16. Michael Bruno & William Easterly, 1995. "Inflation Crises and Long-Run Growth," NBER Working Papers 5209, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Stanley Fischer & Alan Gelb, 1991. "The Process of Socialist Economic Transformation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 91-105, Fall.
  18. Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Vegh, 1996. "Inflation and stabilization in transition economies: An analytical interpretation of the evidence," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 75-108.
  19. Philippe Aghion & Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1994. "On the Speed of Transition Central Europe," NBER Working Papers 4736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Kent Osband, 1991. "Index Number Biases During Price Liberalization," IMF Working Papers 91/76, International Monetary Fund.
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