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Central bank independence, inflation and growth in transition economies

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Author Info
Prakash Loungani
Nathan Sheets

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Abstract

In this paper, we document two empirical relationships that have emerged as the former communist countries have taken steps to transform their economies from command systems to market-based systems. First, increased central bank independence has tended to improve inflation performance. Second, high inflation has adversely affected real activity. More specifically, in the first section of this paper, we develop indices of central bank independence (CBI) for twelve transition economies and examine the relationship between CBI and inflation performance across these countries. Statistical evidence suggests that the transition economies with more independent central banks have achieved lower inflation than their counterparts. The second section of this paper studies the relationship between inflation and growth in twenty-six transition economies. We present econometric evidence indicating that reducing inflation helps stabilize economic activity, following the sharp output declines that occur during the initial stages of transition. The paper conc1udes that establishing an independent central bank is a concrete institutional reform that may reduce inflation and thus facilitate economic growth.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 519.

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Date of creation: 1995
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:519

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Keywords: Banks and banking; Central ; Economic development;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Stanley Fischer, 1995. "The Unending Search for Monetary Salvation," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995, Volume 10, pages 275-298 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  3. Cukierman, Alex & Kalaitzidakis, Pantelis & Summers, Lawrence H. & Webb, Steven B., 1993. "Central bank independence, growth, investment, and real rates," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 95-140, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-89, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Ramon Moreno, 1994. "Explaining Asia's low inflation," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov 4. [Downloadable!]
  8. Steven Phillips & Vincent Koen, 1992. "Price Liberalization in Russia: The Early Record," IMF Working Papers 92/92, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Robert J. Barro, 1995. "Inflation and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 5326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Gregory W. Huffman, 1997. "An Equilibrium Analysis of Central Bank Independence and Inflation," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(4), pages 943-58, November.
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  11. Stanley Fischer & Franco Modigliani, 1978. "Towards an understanding of the real effects and costs of inflation," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 114(4), pages 810-833, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Guy Debelle & Stanley Fischer, 1994. "How independent should a central bank be?," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 94-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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  13. Vincent Koen & Michael Marrese, 1995. "Stabilization and Structural Change in Russia, 1992-94," IMF Working Papers 95/13, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Alesina, Alberto & Summers, Lawrence H, 1993. "Central Bank Independence and Macroeconomic Performance: Some Comparative Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(2), pages 151-62, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Fischer, Stanley, 1995. "Central-Bank Independence Revisited," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(2), pages 201-06, May.
  16. Adam Posen, 1995. "Central bank independence and disinflationary credibility: a missing link?," Staff Reports 1, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Adam S. Posen, 1995. "Declarations Are Not Enough: Financial Sector Sources of Central Bank Independence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995, Volume 10, pages 253-274 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  19. Guy Debelle, 1996. "Central Bank Independence: A Free Lunch?," IMF Working Papers 96/1, International Monetary Fund.
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Luis Jácome & Francisco Vázquez, 2005. "Any Link Between Legal Central Bank Independence and Inflation? Evidence from Latin America and the Caribbean," Macroeconomics 0508011, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Jacob De Haan & Helge Berger & Erik Van Fraassen, 2001. "How to Reduce Inflation: An Independent Central Bank or A Currency Board? The Experience of the Baltic Countries," LICOS Discussion Papers 9601, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, K.U.Leuven. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. de Melo, Martha & Denizer, Cevdet & Gelb, Alan & Tenev, Stoyan, 1997. "Circumstance and choice : the role of initial conditions and policies in transition economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1866, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Marcus Miller & Lei Zhang, 1995. "Hyperinflation and stabilization: Cagan revisited," International Finance Discussion Papers 529, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Hasan , Iftekhar & Mester, Loretta, 2008. "Central bank institutional structure and effective central banking: cross-country empirical evidence," Research Discussion Papers 29/2008, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Aleksandra Maslowska, 2007. "Discussion on the Inconsistency of Central Bank Independence Measures," Discussion Papers 21, Aboa Centre for Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Gillman, Max & Nakov, Anton, 2005. "Granger Causality of the Inflation-Growth Mirror in Accession Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 4845, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Alejandro Simone & Alex Segura-Ubiergo & Sanjeev Gupta, 2006. "New Evidence on Fiscal Adjustment and Growth in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 06/244, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  9. Agustin Carstens & Luis I. Jacome H., 2005. "Latin American Central Bank Reform: Progress and Challenges," Macroeconomics 0509022, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Eva Gutiérrez, 2004. "Inflation Performance and Constitutional Central Bank Independence. Evidence from Latin America and the Caribbean," Economia Mexicana NUEVA EPOCA, , vol. 0(2), pages 255-287, July-Dece. [Downloadable!]
  11. Lucio Vinhas de Souza, 2002. "Integrated monetary and exchange rate frameworks: are there empirical differences?," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2002-2, Bank of Estonia, revised 12 Oct 2002. [Downloadable!]
  12. Cukierman, A. & Miller, G.P. & Neyapti, B., 2000. "Central bank reform, liberalization and inflation in transition economies : an international perspective," Discussion Paper 106, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Korhonen, Iikka, 1999. "Currency Boards in the Baltic Countries: What Have We Learned?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/1999, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Self, Sharmistha & Grabowski, Richard, 2006. "The Asian Financial Crisis: Impact on Human Development," Review of Applied Economics, Review of Applied Economics, vol. 2(2). [Downloadable!]
  15. Stefan Krause & Felix Rioja, 2006. "Financial Development and Monetary Policy Efficiency," Emory Economics 0613, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta). [Downloadable!]
  16. Eva Gutierrez, 2003. "Inflation Performance and Constitutional Central Bank Independence: Evidence From Latin America and the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 03/53, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  17. Roberto A. De Santis & Michele Ca'Zorzi, 2003. "The admission of accession countries to an enlarged monetary union: a tentative assessment," Working Paper Series 216, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  18. Dvorsky, Sandra, 2000. "Measuring Central Bank Independence in Selected Transition Countries and the Disinflation Process," BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2000, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
  19. Agustín Carstens, & Luis I. Jácome, 2005. "The 1990s Institutional Reform of Monetary Policy in Latin America," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 343, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  20. Lúcio Vinhas de Souza, 2002. "Integrated Monetary and Exchange Rate Frameworks," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-054/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  21. Aleksandra Maslowska, 2008. "Quest for the best: How to measure central bank independence and show its relation with inflation?," Discussion Papers 37, Aboa Centre for Economics. [Downloadable!]
  22. Joan Costa Font & Joan Batalla Bejerano, 1998. "Eastern European Countries and the EMU: departure situation and transition strategies," ERSA conference papers ersa98p192, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
  23. Athanasios Papadopoulos & Giuseppe Diana & Moise Sidiropoulos, 2005. "Central Bank Reform and Inflation Dynamics in the Transition Economies theory and some evidence," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 58, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  24. Stefan Krause & Fabio Mendez, 2005. "Institutions, Arrangements, and Preferences for Inflation Stability: Evidence and Lessons from a Panel Data Analysis," Emory Economics 0501, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta). [Downloadable!]
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