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Output and inflation in the long run

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Author Info
Neil R. Ericsson
John S. Irons
Ralph W. Tryon

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Abstract

Cross-country regressions explaining output growth often obtain a negative effect from inflation. However, that result is not robust, due to the selection of countries in sample, temporal aggregation, and omission of consequential variables in levels. This paper demonstrates some implications of these mis-specifications, both analytically and empirically. In particular, for most G-7 countries, annual time series of inflation and the log-level of output are cointegrated, thus rejecting the existence of a long-run relation between output growth and inflation. Typically, output and inflation are positively related in these cointegrating relationships: a price markup model helps interpret this surprising feature.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 687.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Keywords: Inflation (Finance) ; Economic development;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Rajaguru GULASEKARAN & Tilak ABEYSINGHE, 2002. "The Distortionary Effects Of Temporal Aggregation On Granger Causality," Departmental Working Papers wp0204, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Ordóñez, Javier & Jusélius, Katarina, 2009. "Balassa-Samuelson and Wage, Price and Unemployment Dynamics in the Spanish Transition to EMU Membership," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 3(4), pages 1-30. [Downloadable!]
  3. Dierk Herzer, 2005. "Does Trade Increase Total Factor Productivity: Cointegration Evidence for Chile," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 115, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  4. D. Sornette & W. -X. Zhou, 2004. "Non-parametric Determination of Real-Time Lag Structure between Two Time Series: the "Optimal Thermal Causal Path" Method," Quantitative Finance Papers cond-mat/0408166, arXiv.org. [Downloadable!]
  5. Dierk Herzer & Stephan Klasen & Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann D., 2006. "In search of FDI-led growth in developing countries," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 150, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Daniel L. Thornton, 1996. "The costs and benefits of price stability: an assessment of Howitt's rule," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 23-38. [Downloadable!]
  7. John S. Irons, . "Potential Output as a Common Cause for Inflation and Output Growth: A Cautionary Note to the Empirical Growth Literature," Home Pages _002, Massachussets Institute of Technology, Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Tilak Abeysinghe & Gulasekaran Rajaguru, 2003. "Temporal Aggregation, Causality Distortions, and a Sign Rule," Departmental Working Papers wp0406, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. John S. Irons, . "Assessing the Stability of Aggregate Productivity Growth in the United States: 1889-1989," Home Pages _001, Massachussets Institute of Technology, Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. James B. Ang, 2007. "A Survey Of Recent Developments In The Literature Of Finance And Growth," Monash Economics Working Papers 03/07, Monash University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Joseph H. Haslag, 1997. "Output, growth, welfare, and inflation: a survey," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q II, pages 11-21. [Downloadable!]
  12. repec:bep:mactop:v:6:y:2006:i:1:p:1336-1336 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann D. & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso & Dierk Herzer & Stephan Klasen & Axel Dreher, 2009. "In Search for a Long-run Relationship between Aid and Growth: Pitfalls and Findings," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 196, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Ardeshir Sepehri & Saeed Moshiri, 2004. "Inflation-Growth Profiles Across Countries: Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 191-207, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  17. George T. McCandless, Jr. & Warren E. Weber, 1995. "Some monetary facts," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum, pages 2-11. [Downloadable!]
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