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Pegging Out: Lessons from the Czech Exchange Rate Crisis

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Author Info
Begg, David

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Abstract

In May 1997 the Czech Republic abandoned its exchange rate peg, the centrepiece of macroeconomic strategy since 1991. I examine the usefulness of theories of speculative attack in interpreting the crisis. Significantly, after the crisis subsided, competitiveness returned to its earlier level. One intepretation is that the koruna was the innocent victim of turmoil in Asia. This neglects the trend deterioration of competitiveness prior to the crisis. I therefore conclude that the crisis provoked a much-needed adjustment in fiscal policy, which altered the monetary-fiscal mix and consequent equilibrium exchange rate. Sterilization during 1994-6 unhelpfully delayed adjustment. Earlier abandonment of the parity would have helped only if it had also induced the required fiscal adjustment.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 1956.

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Date of creation: Sep 1998
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1956

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Related research
Keywords: Capital Inflows; Exchange Rate Bands; Monetary Policy; Speculative Attacks;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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  1. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesýs & Slacik, Tomas, 2007. "An "almost-too-late" warning mechanism for currency crises," BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2007, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
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  2. David Barlow, 2003. "Purchasing Power Parity in Three Transition Economies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 201-221, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Jenny Corbett & David Vines, 1998. "The Asian Crisis: Competing Explanations," SCEPA Working Papers 1998-12, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School. [Downloadable!]
  4. Yu Hsing, 2004. "Impacts Of Macroeconomic Policies On Output In The Czech Republic: An Application Of Romer'S Is-Mp-Ia Model," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2004(4), pages 339-345. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. J. Fidrmuc & J. Fidrmuc, 2000. "Macroeconomic Developments in the Czech Republic and the EU Accession Process," Working Papers ir00008, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  6. R. Golinelli & R. Rovelli, 2001. "Interest Rate Rules and Inflation Targeting in Three Transition Countries," Working Papers 429, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna. [Downloadable!]
  7. Frömmel, Michael, 2006. "Volatility Regimes in Central and Eastern European Countries' Exchange Rates," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-333, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Julius Horvath, 1999. "The May 1997 Currency Crisis in the Czech Republic," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 277-298, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. David M. Kemme & Saktinil Roy, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignment: Prelude to Crisis?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp797, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
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  10. J. Fidrmuc & J. Fidrmuc, 2000. "Macroeconomic Developments in Slovakia and the EU Accession Process," Working Papers ir00007, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  11. Inci Ötker & Zbigniew Polanski & Barry Topf & David Vávra, 2007. "Coping with Capital Inflows: Experiences of Selected European Countries," IMF Working Papers 07/190, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  12. Roberto Golinelli & Riccardo Rovelli, 2002. "Monetary Policy Transmission, Interest Rate Rules and Inflation Targeting in Three Transition Countries," Eastward Enlargement of the Euro-zone Working Papers wp10, Free University Berlin, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, revised 01 Aug 2002. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Jesús Rodríguez López & José Luis Torres Chacón, 2006. "Following the yellow brick road? The Euro, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2006/02, Centro de Estudios Andaluces. [Downloadable!]
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  14. David Barlow, 2004. "Purchasing Power Parity in Three Transition Economies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 201-221, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Ali M. Kutan & Selahattin Dibooglu, 1998. "Sources of real and nominal exchange rate fluctuations in transition economies," Working Papers 1998-022, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  16. David Barlow & Roxana Radulescu, 2002. "Purchasing Power Parity in the Transition: the Case of the Romanian Leu Against the Dollar," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 123-135, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Jiri Jonas & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in Transition Countries: Experience and Prospects," NBER Working Papers 9667, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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