Market Timing and Return Prediction under Model Instability

This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data

Market Timing and Return Prediction under Model Instability

Author Info

Allan Timmermann ()
M. Hashem Pesaran

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

Despite mounting empirical evidence to the contrary, the literature on predictability of stock returns almost uniformly assumes a time-invariant relationship between state variables and returns. In this paper we propose a two-stage approach for forecasting of financial return series that are subject to breaks. The first stage adopts a reversed ordered Cusum (ROC) procedure to determine in real time when the most recent break has occurred. In the second stage, post-break data is used to estimate the parameters of the forecasting model. We compare this approach to existing alternatives for dealing with parameter instability such as the Bai-Perron method and the time-varying parameter model. An out-of-sample forecasting experiment demonstrates considerable gains in market timing precision from adopting the proposed two-stage forecasting method.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Financial Markets Group in its series FMG Discussion Papers with number dp412.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: Mar 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fmg:fmgdps:dp412

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://fmg.lse.ac.uk/

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (The FMG Administration).

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Article
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2002. "Market timing and return prediction under model instability," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(5), pages 495-510, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Patrick McGlenchy & Paul Kofman, 2004. "Structurally Sound Dynamic Index Futures Hedging," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 80, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2004. "Improving forecast accuracy by combining recursive and rolling forecasts," Research Working Paper RWP 04-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
Anne Vila Wetherilt & Simon Wells, . "Long-horizon equity return predictability: some new evidence for the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 244, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
Stanislav Anatolyev, 2006. "Nonparametric retrospection and monitoring of predictability of financial returns," Working Papers w0071, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR). [Downloadable!]
Pedro N. Rodríguez, & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2006. "Forecasting Stock Price Changes: Is it Possible?," Working Papers 2006-22, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
M. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Learning, structural instability and present value calculations," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 529, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Pesaran, M.H. & Pettenuzzo, D. & Timmermann, A., 2006. "Learning, Structural Instability and Present Value Calculations," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0602, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
- Pesaran, Hashem & Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Learning, structural instability and present value calculations," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,27, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
- Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Learning, Structural Instability and Present Value Calculations," IEPR Working Papers 06.42, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR). [Downloadable!]
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Learning, Structural Instability and Present Value Calculations," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
- Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2007. "Learning, Structural Instability, and Present Value Calculations," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 253-288. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2002. "Forecast-based model selection in the presence of structural breaks," Research Working Paper RWP 02-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
Pesaran, M.H. & Pettenuzzo, D. & Timmermann, A., 2004. "‘Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks’," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0433, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan, 2004. "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," IZA Discussion Papers 1196, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
- Pesaran, M Hashem & Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan G, 2004. "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," CEPR Discussion Papers 4636, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2004. "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
- Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 73(4), pages 1057-1084, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Aiolfi, Marco & Favero, Carlo A, 2003. "Model Uncertainty, Thick Modelling and the Predictability of Stock Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 3997, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Marco Aiolfi & Carlo Ambrogio Favero, . "Model Uncertainty, Thick Modelling and the predictability of Stock Returns," Working Papers 221, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
John M Maheu & Stephen Gordon, 2007. "Learning, Forecasting and Structural Breaks," Working Papers tecipa-284, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- John M. Maheu & Stephen Gordon, 2004. "Learning, Forecasting and Structural Breaks," Cahiers de recherche 0422, CIRPEE. [Downloadable!]
Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Combining forecasts from nested models," Research Working Paper RWP 06-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2007. "Combining forecasts from nested models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, A., 2004. "‘Real Time Econometrics’," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0432, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan G, 2004. "Real Time Econometrics," CEPR Discussion Papers 4402, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2004. "Real Time Econometrics," IZA Discussion Papers 1108, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Allan Timmermann, 2004. "Real Time Econometrics," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
- Pesaran, Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2005. "Real-Time Econometrics," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(01), pages 212-231, February. [Downloadable!]
Jaehun Chung & Yongmiao Hong, 2007. "Model-free evaluation of directional predictability in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(5), pages 855-889. [Downloadable!]
John M Maheu & Thomas H McCurdy, 2007. "How useful are historical data for forecasting the long-run equity return distribution?," Working Papers tecipa-293, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- John M. Maheu & Thomas H. McCurdy, 2007. "How useful are historical data for forecasting the long-run equity return distribution?," Working Paper Series 19-07, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jul 2007. [Downloadable!]
Yang Yang & Tae-Hwy Lee, 2004. "Bagging Binary Predictors for Time Series," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 512, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
Pesaran, H.M. & Timmermann, A., 2003. "How Costly is it to Ignore Breaks when Forecasting the Direction of a Time Series?," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0306, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Allan Timmermann & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2003. "How Costly is it to Ignore Breaks when Forecasting the Direction of a Time Series?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2004. "How costly is it to ignore breaks when forecasting the direction of a time series?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 411-425. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Did you know? You can import bibliographic info in various formats into you bibliographic tool, or just into your word processor. See under "publisher info" on each abstract page.

This page was last updated on 2008-9-2.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.