IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/1568.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Structural Change and International Trade

Author

Listed:
  • Ben-David, Dan
  • Papell, David

Abstract

This paper examines trends in trade behaviour of 48 countries since the Second World War. In light of the substantial movement towards removal of trade impediments world-wide during the post-war period, this paper attempts to determine if, and when, countries experienced significant changes in the paths of their export-GDP and import-GDP ratios. We find that: (1) the time-paths of the trade ratios in most countries exhibit a structural break during the post-war period; (2) the extent of trade following the breaks exceeded the pre-break trade levels for the majority of countries; (3) the relationship between the timing of the break for imports and the timing of the break for exports is not particularly strong; and (4) there is little relation between the extent of the post-break to pre-break changes in imports and the post-break to pre-break changes in exports for most countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Ben-David, Dan & Papell, David, 1997. "Structural Change and International Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 1568, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1568
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=1568
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    2. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1995. "Estimating & Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Working papers 95-17, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    4. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 1-118.
    5. Paul Krugman, 1995. "Growing World Trade: Causes and Consequences," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 327-377.
    6. Dan Ben-David, 1993. "Equalizing Exchange: Trade Liberalization and Income Convergence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(3), pages 653-679.
    7. Ben-David, Dan & Papell, David H., 1995. "The great wars, the great crash, and steady state growth: Some new evidence about an old stylized fact," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 453-475, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Suleiman Abu-Bader & Aamer S. Abu-Qarn, 2006. "Trade Liberalization Or Oil Shocks: Which Explains Structural Breaks In International Trade Ratios?," Working Papers 0613, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    2. Marta Arespa & Diego Gruber, 2021. "Product Quality and International Price Dynamics over the Business Cycle," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(352), pages 1054-1074, October.
    3. Marcela Sabaté, 2009. "Vertical Specialization and Nonstationarities in International Trade Series," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp309, IIIS.
    4. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Pierre Perron, 2010. "A sequential procedure to determine the number of breaks in trend with an integrated or stationary noise component," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 305-328, September.
    5. Suleiman ABU-BADER & Aamer S. ABU-QARN, 2008. "The Impact Of Gatt On International Trade: Evidence From Structural Break Analysis," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 8(2), pages 23-36.
    6. Kocenda, Evzen, 2005. "Beware of breaks in exchange rates: Evidence from European transition countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 307-324, September.
    7. Holmes Mark J. & Panagiotidis Theodore, 2009. "Cointegration and Asymmetric Adjustment: Some New Evidence Concerning the Behavior of the U.S. Current Account," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-25, June.
    8. Alvaro Pereira & João Jalles & Martin Andresen, 2012. "Structural change and foreign direct investment: globalization and regional economic integration," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 11(1), pages 35-82, April.
    9. Beckmann, Elisabeth & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 2009. "Oil Price Shock and Structural Changes in CMEA Trade," Discussion Papers in Economics 10963, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    10. Michael W. Robbins & Colin M. Gallagher & Robert B. Lund, 2016. "A General Regression Changepoint Test for Time Series Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 111(514), pages 670-683, April.
    11. Saygılı, Hülya & Saygılı, Mesut, 2011. "Structural changes in exports of an emerging economy: Case of Turkey," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 342-360.
    12. Ben-David, Dan & Loewy, Michael B, 1998. "Free Trade, Growth, and Convergence," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 143-170, June.
    13. Robinson Kruse & Sanne Hiller, 2010. "Milestones of European Integration: Which matters most for Export Openness?," CREATES Research Papers 2010-27, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    14. Nuno Ferreira & Rui Menezes & Sónia Bentes, 2014. "Cointegration and Structural Breaks in the EU Sovereign Debt Crisis," International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, vol. 4(1), pages 680-680.
    15. Enrica De Cian, 2006. "International Technology Spillovers in Climate-Economy Models: Two Possible Approaches," Working Papers 2006.141, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    16. Kiyota, Kozo, 2022. "The COVID-19 pandemic and the world trade network," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    17. Fiteni, Inmaculada, 2004. "[tau]-estimators of regression models with structural change of unknown location," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 19-44, March.
    18. Balandina, M. S., 2017. "International trade as a channel of influence of globalization on economic development of the countries-parties of OBOR initiative," R-Economy, Ural Federal University, Graduate School of Economics and Management, vol. 3(4), pages 231-242.
    19. González-Val, Rafael & Marcén, Miriam, 2012. "Breaks in the breaks: An analysis of divorce rates in Europe," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 242-255.
    20. González-Val, Rafael & Marcén, Miriam, 2010. "Unilateral Divorce vs. Child Custody and Child Support in the U.S," MPRA Paper 24695, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Nuno Ferreira & Rui Menezes & Manuela M. Oliveira, 2013. "Structural Breaks and Cointegration Analysis in the EU Developed Markets," International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, vol. 3(4), pages 652-652.
    22. González-Val, Rafael & Marcén, Miriam, 2012. "Unilateral divorce versus child custody and child support in the U.S," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 613-643.
    23. Rafael González-Val, 2022. "A Time Series Analysis of Judicial Foreclosures in Spain," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-22, October.
    24. Elisabeth Beckmann & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2012. "Oil Price Shock and Structural Changes in CMEA Trade: Pouring Oil on Troubled Waters?," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 9(1), pages 31-49, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ben-David, Dan & Papell, David H., 1997. "International trade and structural change," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 513-523, November.
    2. Duranton, Gilles, 1998. "Globalisation, productive systems, and inequalities," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20252, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Kocenda, Evzen, 2005. "Beware of breaks in exchange rates: Evidence from European transition countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 307-324, September.
    4. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Ramos-Herrera, María del Carmen, 2023. "Does international trade promote economic growth? Europe, 19th and 20th centuries," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1358, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    5. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Claude Lopez, 2013. "Unit Roots, Level Shifts, and Trend Breaks in Per Capita Output: A Robust Evaluation," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(8), pages 892-927, November.
    6. Ben-David, Dan & Loewy, Michael B, 2000. "Knowledge Dissemination, Capital Accumulation, Trade, and Endogenous Growth," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(4), pages 637-650, October.
    7. Charles I. Jones, "undated". "The Upcoming Slowdown in U.S. Economic Growth," Working Papers 97015, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
    8. Suleiman Abu‐Bader & Aamer S. Abu‐Qarn, 2010. "Trade Liberalization or Oil Shocks: Which Better Explains Structural Breaks in International Trade Ratios?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(2), pages 250-264, May.
    9. Ben-David, Dan & Loewy, Michael B, 1998. "Free Trade, Growth, and Convergence," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 143-170, June.
    10. Richard Bluhm & Denis de Crombrugghe & Adam Szirmai, 0. "Do Weak Institutions Prolong Crises? On the Identification, Characteristics, and Duration of Declines during Economic Slumps," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 34(3), pages 810-832.
    11. Oscar Bajo-Rubio, 2022. "Exports and long-run growth: The case of Spain, 1850-2020," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 1314-1337, December.
    12. Romain Wacziarg, 2001. "Measuring the Dynamic Gains from Trade," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 15(3), pages 393-39-429.
    13. Miguel Lebre de Freitas, 2006. "Portugal–EU Convergence Revisited: Evidence for the Period 1960–2003," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 12(3), pages 408-418, August.
    14. Matteo Mogliani, 2010. "Residual-based tests for cointegration and multiple deterministic structural breaks: A Monte Carlo study," Working Papers halshs-00564897, HAL.
    15. Maria-Dolores, Ramon & Martínez Carrion, José Miguel, 2012. "The comovement between height and some economic development indicators in Spain," UMUFAE Economics Working Papers 26464, DIGITUM. Universidad de Murcia.
    16. Cigno, Alessandro & Rosati, Furio C. & Guarcello, Lorenzo, 2002. "Does Globalization Increase Child Labor?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(9), pages 1579-1589, September.
    17. Joseph E. Gagnon, 2008. "Inflation regimes and inflation expectations," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(May), pages 229-243.
    18. Samargandi, Nahla & Fidrmuc, Jan & Ghosh, Sugata, 2015. "Is the Relationship Between Financial Development and Economic Growth Monotonic? Evidence from a Sample of Middle-Income Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 66-81.
    19. Nasfi Fkili Wahiba, 2015. "Convergence and Divergence among Countries," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(3), pages 510-520, March.
    20. Francisco Rodríguez, 2006. "Openness and Growth: What Have We Learned?," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2006-011, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Trade; Structural Breaks;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1568. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.