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The Upcoming Slowdown in U.S. Economic Growth

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  • Charles I. Jones

Abstract

At least since 1950, the United States has been stimulated by increases in educational attainment, increases in research intensity, and the increased openness and development of the world economy. Such changes suggest, contrary to the conventional view, that the U.S. economy is far from its steady state balanced growth path. The theoretical framework analyzed here provides a coherent interpretation of this evidence and indicates that when these increases cease and the U.S. economy reaches its steady state, U.S. per capita growth can be expected to fall to a rate of approximately 1/4 its post-war average.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6284.

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Date of creation: Nov 1997
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6284

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  1. Robert Evenson, 1984. "International Invention: Implications for Technology Market Analysis," NBER Chapters, in: R & D, Patents, and Productivity, pages 89-126 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Eaton, Jonathan & Kortum, Samuel, 1996. "Trade in ideas Patenting and productivity in the OECD," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-4), pages 251-278, May.
  3. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 1-118.
  4. Paul Romer, 1989. "Endogenous Technological Change," NBER Working Papers 3210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Dinopoulos, Elias & Segerstrom, Paul, 1996. "A Schumpeterian Model of Protection and Relative Wages," Working Paper Series 471, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
  6. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 323-51, March.
  7. Griliches, Zvi, 1988. "Productivity Puzzles and R&D: Another Nonexplanation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 9-21, Fall.
  8. Stokey, Nancy L, 1995. "R&D and Economic Growth," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(3), pages 469-89, July.
  9. Peter J. Klenow & Mark Bils, 2000. "Does Schooling Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1160-1183, December.
  10. Paul Krugman, 1995. "Growing World Trade: Causes and Consequences," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 327-377.
  11. Ben-David, Dan, 1993. "Equalizing Exchange: Trade Liberalization and Income Convergence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(3), pages 653-79, August.
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Cited by:
  1. Gilles Duranton & Diego Puga, 2002. "From Sectoral to Functional Urban Specialization," NBER Working Papers 9112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Simon Wiederhold, 2009. "Government Spending Composition in a Simple Model of Schumpeterian Growth," Jena Economic Research Papers 2009-101, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena, Max-Planck-Institute of Economics.
  3. Puga, Diego, 2008. "Agglomeration and cross-border infrastructure," EIB Papers 9/2008, European Investment Bank, Economics Department.
  4. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 1998. "Does Schooling Cause Growth or the Other Way Around?," NBER Working Papers 6393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Phillip Bryson, 2001. "Economy and “New Economy” in the United States and Germany," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 180-190, July.
  6. John D. Stiver, 2003. "Technology Creation, Diffusion, and Growth Cycles," Working papers 2003-35, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  7. Davis, Lewis & Owen, Ann L. & Videras, Julio, 2007. "Do all countries follow the same growth process?," MPRA Paper 11589, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2008.
  8. Alison Butler & Michael R. Pakko, 1998. "R&D spending and cyclical fluctuations: putting the "technology" in technology shocks," Working Papers 1998-020, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  9. Simon Wiederhold, 2012. "The Role of Public Procurement in Innovation: Theory and Empirical Evidence," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 43.
  10. Gong, Gang & Greiner, Alfred & Semmler, Willi, 2004. "The Uzawa-Lucas model without scale effects: theory and empirical evidence," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 401-420, December.

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