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The Upcoming Slowdown in U.S. Economic Growth

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Charles I. Jones

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Abstract

At least since 1950, the United States has been stimulated by increases in educational attainment, increases in research intensity, and the increased openness and development of the world economy. Such changes suggest, contrary to the conventional view, that the U.S. economy is far from its steady state balanced growth path. The theoretical framework analyzed here provides a coherent interpretation of this evidence and indicates that when these increases cease and the U.S. economy reaches its steady state, U.S. per capita growth can be expected to fall to a rate of approximately 1/4 its post-war average.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6284.

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Date of creation: Nov 1997
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6284

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
O30 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change - - - General

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Stokey, Nancy L, 1995. "R&D and Economic Growth," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 62(3), pages 469-89, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Samuel S. Kortum & Jonathan Eaton, 1995. "Trade in ideas: patenting and productivity in the OECD," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-9, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Other versions:
  3. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2000. "Does Schooling Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1160-1183, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Elias Dinopoulos & Paul Segerstrom, 1999. "A Schumpeterian Model of Protection and Relative Wages," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 450-472, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Griliches, Zvi, 1988. "Productivity Puzzles and R&D: Another Nonexplanation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 9-21, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S71-102, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1995-1), pages 1-118. [Downloadable!]
  8. Paul Krugman, 1995. "Growing World Trade: Causes and Consequences," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1995-1), pages 327-377. [Downloadable!]
  9. Ben-David, Dan, 1993. "Equalizing Exchange: Trade Liberalization and Income Convergence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(3), pages 653-79, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 323-51, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Jeffrey Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Progress of Global Integration," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1733, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Gilles Duranton & Diego Puga, 2002. "From Sectoral to Functional Urban Specialization," NBER Working Papers 9112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Phillip Bryson, 2001. "Economy and “New Economy” in the United States and Germany," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 180-190, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 1998. "Does Schooling Cause Growth or the Other Way Around?," NBER Working Papers 6393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. John D. Stiver, 2003. "Technology Creation, Diffusion, and Growth Cycles," Working papers 2003-35, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Alison Butler & Michael R. Pakko, 1998. "R&D spending and cyclical fluctuations: putting the "technology" in technology shocks," Working Papers 1998-020, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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