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Does Schooling Cause Growth or the Other Way Around?

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Author Info
Mark Bils
Peter J. Klenow

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Abstract

Barro (1991) and others find that growth and schooling are highly correlated across countries, with each additional year of 1960 enrollment associated with about .6% per year faster growth in per capita GDP from 1960 to 1990. In a model with finite-lived individuals who choose schooling, schooling can influence growth, but also faster technology-driven growth can induce more schooling by raising the effective rate of return on investment in schooling. We consider a variety of evidence to determine the strength of these channels, with two main findings. First, faster-growing countries have at most modestly flatter cross-sectional experience-earnings profiles, consistent with a minority role for the channel from schooling to growth. Second, we calibrate the model using evidence from the labor literature and employ UNESCO attainment data to construct schooling going back well before 1960. We find the channel from schooling to growth to be too weak to generate even half of Barro's coefficient under a range of plausible parameter values. The reverse channel from expected growth to schooling, in contrast, is capable of explaining the empirical relationship. We conclude that the evidence favors a dominant role for the reverse channel from growth to schooling.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6393.

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Date of creation: Feb 1998
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Publication status: published as Bils, M. and P. J. Klenow. "Does Schooling Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, 2000, v90(5,Dec), 1160-1183.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6393

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E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Esther Duflo, 2000. "Schooling and Labor Market Consequences of School Construction in Indonesia: Evidence from an Unusual Policy Experiment," NBER Working Papers 7860, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Alan B. Krueger & Mikael Lindahl, 1999. "Education for Growth in Sweden and the World," NBER Working Papers 7190, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Neri, F., 2001. "Schooling Quality and Economic Growth," Economics Working Papers wp01-06, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia. [Downloadable!]
  4. Teulings, Coen & van Rens, Thijs, 2002. "Education, Growth and Income Inequality," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Xavier Mateos-Planas, 2001. "Schooling and Distortions in a Vintage Capital Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(1), pages 127-158, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2000. "Does Schooling Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1160-1183, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Huw Lloyd-Ellis & Joanne Roberts, 2000. "Twin Engines of Growth," Working Papers jorob-00-02, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Samuel de Abreu Pessôa, 2001. "Um Modelo de Acumulação de Capital Físico e Humano: Um Diálogo Com a Economia do Trabalho," Anais do XXIX Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 29th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 035, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Pedro Cavalcanti Ferreira & Samuel deAbreu Pessoa & Joao Victor Issler, 2000. "On the Nature of Income Inequality Across Nations," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1487, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Is Trade Good or Bad for the Environment? Sorting Out the Causality," NBER Working Papers 9201, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Daniel Aaronson & Daniel Sullivan, 2001. "Growth in worker quality," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q IV, pages 53-74. [Downloadable!]
  12. Torge Midendorf, 2005. "Human Capital and Economic Growth in OECD Countries," RWI Discussion Papers 0030, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung. [Downloadable!]
  13. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross & Loayza, Norman, 1999. "Finance and the sources of growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2057, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Daron Acemoglu & Joshua Angrist, 1999. "How Large are the Social Returns to Education? Evidence from Compulsory Schooling Laws," NBER Working Papers 7444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Michael Kremer & Daniel Chen, 2000. "Income-distribution Dynamics with Endogenous Fertility," NBER Working Papers 7530, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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