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The Upcoming Slowdown in U.S. Economic Growth

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  • Charles I. Jones

Abstract

At least since 1950, the United States has been stimulated by increases in educational attainment, increases in research intensity, and the increased openness and development of the world economy. Such changes suggest, contrary to the conventional view, that the U.S. economy is far from its steady state balanced growth path. The theoretical framework analyzed here provides a coherent interpretation of this evidence and indicates that when these increases cease and the U.S. economy reaches its steady state, U.S. per capita growth can be expected to fall to a rate of approximately 1/4 its post-war average.

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Paper provided by Stanford University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 97015.

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Handle: RePEc:wop:stanec:97015

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  1. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S71-102, October.
  2. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 323-51, March.
  3. Jeffrey Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Progress of Global Integration," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1733, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  4. Paul Krugman, 1995. "Growing World Trade: Causes and Consequences," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 327-377.
  5. Stokey, Nancy L, 1995. "R&D and Economic Growth," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(3), pages 469-89, July.
  6. Griliches, Zvi, 1988. "Productivity Puzzles and R&D: Another Nonexplanation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 9-21, Fall.
  7. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction," Scholarly Articles 12490578, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  8. Eaton, Jonathan & Kortum, Samuel, 1996. "Trade in ideas Patenting and productivity in the OECD," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-4), pages 251-278, May.
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  10. Peter J. Klenow & Mark Bils, 2000. "Does Schooling Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1160-1183, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Davis, Lewis & Owen, Ann L. & Videras, Julio, 2007. "Do all countries follow the same growth process?," MPRA Paper 11589, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2008.
  2. Gilles Duranton & Diego Puga, 2002. "From Sectoral to Functional Urban Specialization," NBER Working Papers 9112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 1998. "Does Schooling Cause Growth or the Other Way Around?," NBER Working Papers 6393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Gong, Gang & Greiner, Alfred & Semmler, Willi, 2004. "The Uzawa-Lucas model without scale effects: theory and empirical evidence," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 401-420, December.
  5. Diego Puga, 2008. "Agglomeration and cross-border infrastructure," Working Papers 2008-06, Instituto Madrileño de Estudios Avanzados (IMDEA) Ciencias Sociales.
  6. Phillip Bryson, 2001. "Economy and “New Economy” in the United States and Germany," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 180-190, July.
  7. Simon Wiederhold, 2012. "The Role of Public Procurement in Innovation: Theory and Empirical Evidence," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 43.
  8. John D. Stiver, 2003. "Technology Creation, Diffusion, and Growth Cycles," Working papers 2003-35, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  9. Simon Wiederhold, 2009. "Government Spending Composition in a Simple Model of Schumpeterian Growth," Jena Economic Research Papers 2009-101, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena, Max-Planck-Institute of Economics.
  10. Alison Butler & Michael R. Pakko, 1998. "R&D spending and cyclical fluctuations: putting the "technology" in technology shocks," Working Papers 1998-020, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

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