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The Upcoming Slowdown in U.S. Economic Growth

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  • Charles I. Jones

Abstract

At least since 1950, the United States has been stimulated by increases in educational attainment, increases in research intensity, and the increased openness and development of the world economy. Such changes suggest, contrary to the conventional view, that the U.S. economy is far from its steady state balanced growth path. The theoretical framework analyzed here provides a coherent interpretation of this evidence and indicates that when these increases cease and the U.S. economy reaches its steady state, U.S. per capita growth can be expected to fall to a rate of approximately 1/4 its post-war average.
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Suggested Citation

  • Charles I. Jones, "undated". "The Upcoming Slowdown in U.S. Economic Growth," Working Papers 97015, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:wop:stanec:97015
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 323-351, March.
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    7. Nancy L. Stokey, 1995. "R&D and Economic Growth," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 62(3), pages 469-489.
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    11. Dan Ben-David, 1993. "Equalizing Exchange: Trade Liberalization and Income Convergence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(3), pages 653-679.
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    Cited by:

    1. Duranton, Gilles & Puga, Diego, 2005. "From sectoral to functional urban specialisation," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 343-370, March.
    2. John D. Stiver, 2003. "Technology Creation, Diffusion, and Growth Cycles," Working papers 2003-35, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    3. Alison Butler & Michael R. Pakko, 1998. "R&D spending and cyclical fluctuations: putting the "technology" in technology shocks," Working Papers 1998-020, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    4. Ann Owen & Julio Videras & Lewis Davis, 2009. "Do all countries follow the same growth process?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 265-286, December.
    5. Puga, Diego, 2008. "Agglomeration and cross-border infrastructure," EIB Papers 9/2008, European Investment Bank, Economics Department.
    6. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 1998. "Does Schooling Cause Growth or the Other Way Around?," NBER Working Papers 6393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Simon Wiederhold, 2012. "The Role of Public Procurement in Innovation: Theory and Empirical Evidence," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 43.
    8. Simon Wiederhold, 2009. "Government Spending Composition in a Simple Model of Schumpeterian Growth," Jena Economic Research Papers 2009-101, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    9. Phillip Bryson, 2001. "Economy and “New Economy” in the United States and Germany," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;German National Library of Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 36(4), pages 180-190, July.
    10. Gong, Gang & Greiner, Alfred & Semmler, Willi, 2004. "The Uzawa-Lucas model without scale effects: theory and empirical evidence," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 401-420, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General

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