IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/obuest/v66y2004i2p147-164.html

Endogenous Growth: Estimating the Romer Model for the US and Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Gang Gong
  • Alfred Greiner
  • Willi Semmler

Abstract

By contrasting endogenous growth models with facts, one is frequently confronted with the prediction that levels of economic variables, such as R&D expenditures, imply lasting effects on the growth rate of an economy. As stylized facts show, the research intensity in most advanced countries has dramatically increased, mostly more than the GDP. Yet, the growth rates have roughly remained constant or even declined. In this paper we modify the Romer endogenous growth model and test our variant of the model using time series data. We estimate the market version both for the US and Germany for the time period January 1962 to April 1996. Our results demonstrate that the model is compatible with the time series for aggregate data in those countries. All parameters fall into a reasonable range.

Suggested Citation

  • Gang Gong & Alfred Greiner & Willi Semmler, 2004. "Endogenous Growth: Estimating the Romer Model for the US and Germany," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(2), pages 147-164, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:66:y:2004:i:2:p:147-164
    DOI: 10.1046/j.0305-9049.2003.00082.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1046/j.0305-9049.2003.00082.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1046/j.0305-9049.2003.00082.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Whitney Newey & Kenneth West, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    2. Charles I. Jones, "undated". "The Upcoming Slowdown in U.S. Economic Growth," Working Papers 97015, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
    3. Turnovsky, Stephen J, 2004. "The Transitional Dynamics of Fiscal Policy: Long-Run Capital Accumulation and Growth," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(5), pages 883-910, October.
    4. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    5. Goffe, William L. & Ferrier, Gary D. & Rogers, John, 1994. "Global optimization of statistical functions with simulated annealing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 65-99.
    6. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 323-351, March.
    7. Durlauf, Steven N. & Quah, Danny T., 1999. "The new empirics of economic growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 235-308, Elsevier.
    8. Charles I. Jones, 1995. "Time Series Tests of Endogenous Growth Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(2), pages 495-525.
    9. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    10. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 71-102, October.
    11. Benhabib, Jess & Perli, Roberto & Xie, Danyang, 1994. "Monopolistic competition, indeterminacy and growth," MPRA Paper 37411, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 1994.
    12. Segerstrom, Paul S, 1998. "Endogenous Growth without Scale Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(5), pages 1290-1310, December.
    13. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    14. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 103-126, October.
    15. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-1286, September.
    16. Bernard, Andrew B & Durlauf, Steven N, 1995. "Convergence in International Output," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 97-108, April-Jun.
    17. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jerome Creel & Paola Monperrus-Veroni & Francesco Saraceno, 2007. "Has the Golden Rule of Public Finance Made a Difference in the UK ?," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2007-13, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    2. Bettina Büttner, 2006. "Effectiveness versus Efficiency: Growth‐Accelerating Policies in a Model of Growth without Scale Effects," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7(3), pages 297-316, August.
    3. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1181 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Kong Weng Ho & Hian Teck Hoon, 2006. "Growth Accounting for a Follower-Economy in a World of Ideas : The Example of Singapore," Development Economics Working Papers 22435, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    5. Ho, Kong Weng & Hoon, Hian Teck, 2009. "Growth accounting for a technology follower in a world of ideas: The case of Singapore," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 156-173, March.
    6. Tom-Reiel Heggedal, 2008. "On R&D and the undersupply of emerging versus mature technologies," Discussion Papers 571, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    7. Creina Day, 2016. "Non-Scale Endogenous Growth with R&D and Human Capital," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 63(5), pages 443-467, November.
    8. Tamay Besiroglu & Nicholas Emery-Xu & Neil Thompson, 2022. "Economic impacts of AI-augmented R&D," Papers 2212.08198, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2023.
    9. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2500 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2500 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Jean-Paul Fitoussi & Hélène Baudchon & Jérôme Creel & Jean-Luc Gaffard & Eloi Laurent & Jacques Le Cacheux & Patrick Musso & Michel Aglietta & Vladimir Borgy & Jean Chateau & Michel Juillard & Gilles , 2005. "Potential Growth in the EU : Prospects from Technical Progress and Eastern Enlargment," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-03458887, HAL.
    12. Constantin Bürgi & Nisan Gorgulu, 2022. "The Impact of the Spatial Population Distribution on Economic Growth: Evidence from the United States," CESifo Working Paper Series 10008, CESifo.
    13. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/1181 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. repec:bla:germec:v:7:y:2006:i::p:297-316 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Burgi, Constantin & Gorgulu, Nisan, 2021. "The Impact of the Spatial Population Distribution on Economic Growth," Working Papers 17-2021, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics.
    16. Rao, B. Bhaskara & Singh, Rup & Nisha, Fozia, 2006. "An extension to the neoclassical growth modelto Estimate Growth and Level Effects," MPRA Paper 2186, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Bayraktar-Sağlam, Bahar & Yetkiner, Hakan, 2014. "A Romerian contribution to the empirics of economic growth," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 257-272.
    18. Bye, Brita & Fæhn, Taran & Heggedal, Tom-Reiel, 2009. "Welfare and growth impacts of innovation policies in a small, open economy; an applied general equilibrium analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1075-1088, September.
    19. Hulya Ulku, 2007. "R&D, innovation, and growth: evidence from four manufacturing sectors in OECD countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 59(3), pages 513-535, July.
    20. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2681 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Hulya Ulku, 2007. "R&D, innovation and output: evidence from OECD and nonOECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 291-307.
    22. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2681 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Altar, Moisa & Necula, Ciprian & Bobeica, Gabriel, 2008. "Modeling The Economic Growth In Romania. The Role Of Human Capital," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(3), pages 115-128, September.
    24. Edwin Garces & Tugrul Daim, 2012. "Impact of Renewable Energy Technology on the Economic Growth of the USA," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 3(3), pages 233-249, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Capolupo, Rosa, 2009. "The New Growth Theories and Their Empirics after Twenty Years," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 3, pages 1-72.
    2. Gong, Gang & Greiner, Alfred & Semmler, Willi, 2004. "The Uzawa-Lucas model without scale effects: theory and empirical evidence," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 401-420, December.
    3. Stephen J. Turnovsky, 2000. "Growth in an open economy: some recent developments," Working Paper Research 05, National Bank of Belgium.
    4. Nazrul Islam, 2003. "What have We Learnt from the Convergence Debate?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 309-362, July.
    5. Diana Dimitrova, 2018. "The 2018 Nobel Prize in Economics," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 6, pages 98-152.
    6. Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2002. "15 Years of New Growth Economics : What Have we Learnt?," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 5(2), pages 5-15, August.
    7. Diego Romero-Ávila, 2013. "Is Physical Investment The Key To China'S Growth Miracle?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(4), pages 1948-1971, October.
    8. Magrini, Stefano, 2004. "Regional (di)convergence," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 62, pages 2741-2796, Elsevier.
    9. Simon Wiederhold, 2012. "The Role of Public Procurement in Innovation: Theory and Empirical Evidence," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 43, October.
    10. Navarrete José Luis & Descalzi Ricardo Luis & Barone Sergio Víctor & Acedo Colli Luis Abel, 2025. "Inversión Privada como Motor del Crecimiento: Evidencia con un Panel Dinámico Heterogéneo," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4823, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    11. Boikos, Spyridon & Bucci, Alberto & Stengos, Thanasis, 2013. "Non-monotonicity of fertility in human capital accumulation and economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 44-59.
    12. Krüger Jens J. & Cantner Uwe & Hanusch Horst, 2003. "Explaining International Productivity Differences / Erklärung internationaler Produktivitätsunterschiede," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 223(6), pages 659-679, December.
    13. Long, N.V. & Wong, K.Y., 1996. "Endogenous Growth and International Trade: A Survey," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 96-07, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
    14. Patrizia Margani & Roberto Ricciuti, 2001. "Further Evidence on Convergence across Italian Regions," ERSA conference papers ersa01p104, European Regional Science Association.
    15. van de Klundert, T.C.M.J. & Smulders, J.A., 1991. "Reconstructing growth theory : A survey," Other publications TiSEM 19355c51-17eb-4d5d-aa66-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    16. Guo, Lu & Li, Fangfang, 2015. "Industrial structure and productivities in a two-sector growth model," MPRA Paper 63447, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. David, Oladipo Olalekan, 2019. "Nexus between telecommunication infrastructures, economic growth and development in Africa: Panel vector autoregression (P-VAR) analysis," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(8), pages 1-1.
    18. Kwack, Sung Yeung & Lee, Young Sun, 2006. "Analyzing the Korea's growth experience: The application of R&D and human capital based growth models with demography," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 818-831, November.
    19. Edgar Morgenroth, 2003. "What should Policy Makers Learn from Recent Advances in Growth Theory and New Economic Geography?," Papers WP150, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    20. Ejike Udeogu & Shampa Roy-Mukherjee & Uzochukwu Amakom, 2021. "Does Increasing Product Complexity and Diversity Cause Economic Growth in the Long-Run? A GMM Panel VAR Evidence," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(3), pages 21582440211, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:66:y:2004:i:2:p:147-164. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sfeixuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.