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International Trade and Structural Change

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  • Dan Ben-David
  • David H. Papell

Abstract

In light of the substantial movement towards trade liberalization during the postwar period, this paper attempts to determine if, and when, countries experienced statistically significant changes in the paths of their export-GDP and import-GDP ratios. We find that: (1) most trade ratios exhibited a" structural break in their time paths; (2) postbreak trade exceeded prebreak trade for the majority of countries; (3) the coincidence in timing between the import and export breaks does not appear to be particularly strong, and; (4) there is little relation between the extent of changes in imports and the extent of changes in exports for most countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6096.

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Date of creation: Jul 1997
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Publication status: published as Journal of International Economics, vol. 43, December 1997, pp. 513-23.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6096

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  1. Ben-David, Dan & Papell, David, 1995. "Slowdowns and Meltdowns: Post-war Growth Evidence from 74 Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 1111, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Andrew K. Rose, 1991. "Why Has Trade Grown Faster than Income?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 24(2), pages 417-27, May.
  3. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques 9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  4. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Paul Krugman, 1995. "Growing World Trade: Causes and Consequences," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 327-377.
  6. Vogelsang, Timothy J., 1997. "Wald-Type Tests for Detecting Breaks in the Trend Function of a Dynamic Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(06), pages 818-848, December.
  7. Ng, S. & Perron, P., 1994. "Unit Root Tests ARMA Models with Data Dependent Methods for the Selection of the Truncation Lag," Cahiers de recherche, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques 9423, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  8. Jeffrey Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Progress of Global Integration," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research 1733, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  9. Ben-David, Dan & Papell, David H., 1995. "The great wars, the great crash, and steady state growth: Some new evidence about an old stylized fact," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 453-475, December.
  10. Ben-David, Dan, 1993. "Equalizing Exchange: Trade Liberalization and Income Convergence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 108(3), pages 653-79, August.
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