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International Trade and Structural Change

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Author Info
Dan Ben-David
David H. Papell

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Abstract

In light of the substantial movement towards trade liberalization during the postwar period, this paper attempts to determine if, and when, countries experienced statistically significant changes in the paths of their export-GDP and import-GDP ratios. We find that: (1) most trade ratios exhibited a" structural break in their time paths; (2) postbreak trade exceeded prebreak trade for the majority of countries; (3) the coincidence in timing between the import and export breaks does not appear to be particularly strong, and; (4) there is little relation between the extent of changes in imports and the extent of changes in exports for most countries.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6096.

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Date of creation: Jul 1997
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6096

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
F1 - International Economics - - Trade

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    Other versions:
  2. Ng, S. & Perron, P., 1994. "Unit Root Tests ARMA Models with Data Dependent Methods for the Selection of the Truncation Lag," Cahiers de recherche 9423, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    Other versions:
  3. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Technical Working Papers 0100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Dan Ben-David & David H. Papell, 1997. "Slowdowns and Meltdowns: Postwar Growth Evidence from 74 Countries," NBER Working Papers 6266, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1995-1), pages 1-118. [Downloadable!]
  6. Ben-David, Dan, 1993. "Equalizing Exchange: Trade Liberalization and Income Convergence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(3), pages 653-79, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Andrew K. Rose, 1991. "Why Has Trade Grown Faster than Income?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 24(2), pages 417-27, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Vogelsang, Timothy J., 1997. "Wald-Type Tests for Detecting Breaks in the Trend Function of a Dynamic Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(06), pages 818-848, December. [Downloadable!]
  9. Jeffrey Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Progress of Global Integration," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1733, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  10. Ben-David, Dan & Papell, David H., 1995. "The great wars, the great crash, and steady state growth: Some new evidence about an old stylized fact," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 453-475, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Mark J. Holmes & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2009. "Cointegration and asymmetric adjustment: Some new evidence concerning the behaviour of the US current account," Discussion Paper Series 2009_11, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised May 2009. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Roberto Álvarez, 2007. "Export Transitions," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 418, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  3. Dan Ben-David & Michael B. Loewy, 1997. "Free Trade, Growth, and Convergence," NBER Working Papers 6095, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Pierre Perron, 2009. "A Sequential Procedure to Determine the Number of Breaks in Trend with an Integrated or Stationary Noise Component," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2009-005, Boston University - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Kocenda, Evzen, 2000. "Detecting Structural Breaks in Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 2546, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Antonio Yunez-Naude & Fernando Barceinas Paredes, 2004. "The Agriculture of Mexico After Ten Years of Nafta Implementation," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 277, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  7. Suleiman ABU-BADER & Aamer S. ABU-QARN, 2008. "The Impact Of Gatt On International Trade: Evidence From Structural Break Analysis," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 8(2), pages 23-36. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Suleiman Abu-Bader & Aamer Abu-Qarn, 2006. "Trade Liberalization or Oil Shocks: Which Explains Structural Breaks in International Trade Ratios?," Working Papers 227, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Evzen Kocenda, 2001. "Detecting Structural Breaks: Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," Development and Comp Systems 0012009, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  10. Enrica De Cian, 2006. "International Technology Spillovers in Climate-Economy Models: Two Possible Approaches," Working Papers 2006.141, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
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