IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/recsxx/v25y2022i1p1314-1337.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exports and long-run growth: The case of Spain, 1850-2020

Author

Listed:
  • Oscar Bajo-Rubio

Abstract

We analyse in this paper the relationship between international trade and economic growth from the point of view of one of the most traditional hypotheses within this field, namely, the export-led growth hypothesis, for the case of Spain in a long-term perspective of 170 years. Exports seem to have played a positive, though modest, role in promoting economic growth in the Spanish economy over the whole period, mostly due to the higher productivity associated with the export sector. The contribution of exports to growth, however, seems to have been stronger in the final years of the 19th century, unlike the rest of the period, where it proved to be negligible.

Suggested Citation

  • Oscar Bajo-Rubio, 2022. "Exports and long-run growth: The case of Spain, 1850-2020," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 1314-1337, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:recsxx:v:25:y:2022:i:1:p:1314-1337
    DOI: 10.1080/15140326.2022.2152562
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/15140326.2022.2152562
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/15140326.2022.2152562?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Markus Lampe & Paul Sharp, 2013. "Tariffs and income: a time series analysis for 24 countries," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 7(3), pages 207-235, September.
    2. N/A, 2004. "The World Economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 190(1), pages 8-32, October.
    3. Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 429-438.
    4. Romain Wacziarg & Karen Horn Welch, 2008. "Trade Liberalization and Growth: New Evidence," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 22(2), pages 187-231, June.
    5. Jacks, David S., 2006. "New results on the tariff–growth paradox," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 205-230, August.
    6. Dani Rodrik, 2018. "Populism and the economics of globalization," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 1(1), pages 12-33, June.
    7. Marin, Dalia, 1992. "Is the Export-Led.Growth Hypothesis Valid for Industrialized Countries?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(4), pages 678-688, November.
    8. Chenery, Hollis B., 1984. "Economic Structure and Performance," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780126800609 edited by Syrquin, Moshe & Taylor, Lance & Westphal, Larry E..
    9. David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
    10. Sibylle H. Lehmann & Kevin H. O'Rourke, 2011. "The Structure of Protection and Growth in the Late Nineteenth Century," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(2), pages 606-616, May.
    11. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Carmen D�az-Roldán, 2012. "Do exports cause growth? Some evidence for the new EU members," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 125-131, August.
    12. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar, 2012. "The balance-of-payments constraint on economic growth in a long-term perspective: Spain, 1850–2000," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 105-117.
    13. Michael A. Clemens & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2004. "Why did the Tariff--Growth Correlation Change after 1950?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 5-46, March.
    14. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    15. Jacint Balaguer & Tatiana Florica & Jordi Ripollés, 2015. "Foreign trade and economic growth in Spain (1900–2012): the role of energy imports," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 32(3), pages 359-375, December.
    16. Vamvakidis, Athanasios, 2002. "How Robust Is the Growth-Openness Connection? Historical Evidence," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 57-80, March.
    17. Tarlok Singh, 2010. "Does International Trade Cause Economic Growth? A Survey," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(11), pages 1517-1564, November.
    18. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Critical values for multiple structural change tests," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 72-78, June.
    19. Edwards, Sebastian, 1998. "Openness, Productivity and Growth: What Do We Really Know?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(447), pages 383-398, March.
    20. Panos C. Afxentiou & Apostolos Serletis, 1991. "Exports and GNP Causality in the Industrial Countries: 1950–1985," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 167-179, May.
    21. Oxley, Les, 1993. "Cointegration, causality and export-led growth in Portugal, 1865-1985," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 163-166.
    22. Feder, Gershon, 1983. "On exports and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-2), pages 59-73.
    23. Peter Kugler, 1991. "Growth, exports and cointegration: An empirical investigation," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 127(1), pages 73-82, March.
    24. Claude Diebolt & Michael Haupert (ed.), 2016. "Handbook of Cliometrics," Springer Books, Springer, edition 1, number 978-3-642-40406-1, December.
    25. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 1-118.
    26. Bairoch, Paul, 1972. "Free trade and European economic development in the 19th century," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 211-245, November.
    27. de la Escosura, Leandro Prados, 2007. "Growth and structural change in Spain, 1850–2000: a european perspective+," Revista de Historia Económica / Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 147-181, January.
    28. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    29. Giovanni Federico & Paul Sharp & Antonio Tena-Junguito, 2017. "Openness and growth in a historical perspective: a VECM approach," Working Papers 0118, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    30. Jacint Balaguer & Manuel Cantavella-Jorda, 2001. "Examining the export-led growth hypothesis for Spain in the last century," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(10), pages 681-685.
    31. Hildegart Ahumada & Pablo Sanguinetti, 1995. "The export-led growth hypothesis revisited: theory and evidence," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 22(2 Year 19), pages 327-355, December.
    32. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    33. Edwards, Sebastian, 1993. "Openness, Trade Liberalization, and Growth in Developing Countries," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 1358-1393, September.
    34. Tena-Junguito, Antonio, 2010. "Bairoch revisited: tariff structure and growth in the late nineteenth century," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(1), pages 111-143, April.
    35. Nicholas Crafts, 2004. "Globalisation and Economic Growth: A Historical Perspective," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 45-58, January.
    36. Edwards, Sebastian, 1992. "Trade orientation, distortions and growth in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 31-57, July.
    37. Driskill, Robert, 2012. "Deconstructing The Argument For Free Trade: A Case Study Of The Role Of Economists In Policy Debates," Economics and Philosophy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(1), pages 1-30, March.
    38. Balaguer, Jacint & Cantavella-Jorda, Manuel, 2004. "Export composition and Spanish economic growth: evidence from the 20th century," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 165-179, February.
    39. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    40. Jung, Woo S. & Marshall, Peyton J., 1985. "Exports, growth and causality in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-12.
    41. Ocampo, JoseAntonio, 1986. "New developments in trade theory and LDCs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 129-170, June.
    42. Kohli, Inderjit & Singh, Nirvikar, 1989. "Exports and growth : Critical minimum effort and diminishing returns," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 391-400, April.
    43. Pistoresi, Barbara & Rinaldi, Alberto, 2012. "Exports, imports and growth," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 241-254.
    44. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    45. Dollar, David, 1992. "Outward-Oriented Developing Economies Really Do Grow More Rapidly: Evidence from 95 LDCs, 1976-1985," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(3), pages 523-544, April.
    46. Dan Ben-David, 1993. "Equalizing Exchange: Trade Liberalization and Income Convergence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(3), pages 653-679.
    47. Noguer, Marta & Siscart, Marc, 2005. "Trade raises income: a precise and robust result," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 447-460, March.
    48. Thornton, John, 1996. "Cointegration, causality and export-led growth in Mexico, 1895-1992," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 413-416, March.
    49. Afxentiou, Panayiotis C & Serletis, Apostolos, 1991. "Exports and GNP Causality in the Industrial Countries: 1950-1985," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 167-179.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Ramos-Herrera, María del Carmen, 2023. "Does international trade promote economic growth? Europe, 19th and 20th centuries," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1358, Global Labor Organization (GLO).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Ramos-Herrera, María del Carmen, 2023. "Does international trade promote economic growth? Europe, 19th and 20th centuries," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1358, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    2. Tarlok Singh, 2010. "Does International Trade Cause Economic Growth? A Survey," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(11), pages 1517-1564, November.
    3. Giovanni Federico & Paul Sharp & Antonio Tena-Junguito, 2017. "Openness and growth in a historical perspective: a VECM approach," Working Papers 0118, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    4. Harrison, Ann & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2010. "Trade, Foreign Investment, and Industrial Policy for Developing Countries," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4039-4214, Elsevier.
    5. Harrison, Ann E. & Rodriguez-Clare, Andres, 2009. "Trade, Foreign Investment, and Industrial Policy," MPRA Paper 15561, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Stéphane BECUWE & Bertrand BLANCHETON, 2011. "Tariff growth paradox between 1850 and 1913: a critical survey (In French)," Cahiers du GREThA (2007-2019) 2011-24, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA).
    7. Abo-Zaid Salem M, 2011. "The Trade-Growth Relationship in Israel Revisited: Evidence from Annual Data, 1960-2004," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 63-93, February.
    8. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Carmen D�az-Roldán, 2012. "Do exports cause growth? Some evidence for the new EU members," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 125-131, August.
    9. Klaus Wälde & Christina Wood, 2004. "The empirics of trade and growth: where are the policy recommendations?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 275-292, January.
    10. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Romer, David & Cyrus, Teresa, 1995. "Trade and Growth in East Asian Countries: Cause and Effect?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233408, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    11. Jakob B. Madsen, 2009. "Trade Barriers, Openness, and Economic Growth," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 76(2), pages 397-418, October.
    12. Iyke Bernard Njindan, 2017. "Does Trade Openness Matter for Economic Growth in the CEE Countries?," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 17(1), pages 3-24, March.
    13. Eriṣ, Mehmet N. & Ulaṣan, Bülent, 2013. "Trade openness and economic growth: Bayesian model averaging estimate of cross-country growth regressions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 867-883.
    14. Asmawi Hashim & Norimah Rambeli & Norasibah Abdul Jalil & Normala Zulkifli & Emilda Hashim & Noor Al-Huda Abdul Karim, 2019. "Does Export Led Growth Hypothesis Hold Under World Crisis Recovery Regime in Malaysia?," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 10(5), pages 9-19, December.
    15. Ioanna Konstantakopoulou, 2017. "The aggregate exports-GDP relation under the prism of infrequent trend breaks and multi-horizon causality," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 661-689, October.
    16. Philipp Heimberger, 2022. "Does economic globalisation promote economic growth? A meta‐analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(6), pages 1690-1712, June.
    17. Utku Utkulu & Durmus Özdemir, 2005. "Does Trade Liberalization Cause a Long Run Economic Growth in Turkey," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 245-266, September.
    18. Tena Junguito, Antonio, 2008. "Bairoch revisited : tariff structure and growth in the late 19th century," IFCS - Working Papers in Economic History.WH wp08-04, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Instituto Figuerola.
    19. Stefanescu, Razvan & Dumitriu, Ramona, 2014. "Investigation on the relationship between Romanian foreign trade and industrial production," MPRA Paper 62547, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Capolupo, Rosa, 2009. "The New Growth Theories and Their Empirics after Twenty Years," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-72.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:recsxx:v:25:y:2022:i:1:p:1314-1337. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/recs .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.