Tariffs and income : a time series analysis for 24 countries
AbstractWe argue for a new approach to examining the relationship between tariffs and growth. We demonstrate that more can be learned from time series analyses of the experience of individual countries rather than the usual panel data approach, which imposes a causal relation and presents an average coefficient for all countries. Tentative initial results using simple two variable cointegrated VAR models suggest considerable heterogeneity in the experiences of the countries we look at. For most, however, there was a negative relationship between tariffs and levels of income for both the preand post-Second World War periods. However, in the second half of the twentieth century, the causality ran from income to tariffs: i.e. countries simply liberalized as they got richer. Policy decisions based on the usual panel approach might thus be very inappropriate for individual countries
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Historia Económica e Instituciones in its series Working Papers in Economic History with number wp12-08.
Date of creation: Oct 2012
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Tariff/growth relationship; Protectionism; Trade liberalization; Cointegrated VAR;
Other versions of this item:
- Markus Lampe & Paul Sharp, 2013. "Tariffs and income: a time series analysis for 24 countries," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 7(3), pages 207-235, September.
- Lampe, Markus & Sharp, Paul, 2012. "Tariffs and income: A time series analysis for 24 countries," Discussion Papers of Business and Economics, Department of Business and Economics, University of Southern Denmark 17/2012, Department of Business and Economics, University of Southern Denmark.
- F1 - International Economics - - Trade
- F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
- N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations
- N7 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services
- O2 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-11-17 (All new papers)
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