This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Inflation Persistence in New EU Member States: Is It Different Than in the Euro Area Members?

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Michal Franta
Branislav Saxa
Katerina Smidkova

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

Is inflation persistence in the new EU Member States (NMS) comparable to that in the euro area countries? We argue that persistence may not be as different between the two country groups as one might expect. We confirm that one should work carefully with the usual estimation methods when analyzing the NMS, given the scope of the convergence process they went through. We show that due to frequent breaks in inflation time series in the NMS, parametric statistical measures assuming a constant mean deliver substantially higher persistence estimates for the NMS than for the euro area countries. Employing a time-varying mean leads to the reversal of this result and suggests similar or lower inflation persistence for the NMS compared to euro area countries. Structural measures show that backward-looking behavior may be a more important component in explaining inflation dynamics in the NMS than in the euro area countries.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.cnb.cz/www.cnb.cz/en/research/research_publications/cnb_wp/download/cnbwp_2007_10.pdf
File Format:
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Czech National Bank, Research Department in its series Working Papers with number 2007/10.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: Dec 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2007/10

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Na Prikope 28, 115 03 Prague 1
Phone: 00420 2 2442 1111
Fax: 00420 2 2421 8522
Email:
Web page: http://www.cnb.cz/en/research/research_intro/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Jan Babecky).

Related research
Keywords: Inflation persistence; new hybrid Phillips curve; new member states; timevarying mean.;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Bayesian Analysis
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Christopher F Baum & Mark E. Schaffer & Steven Stillman, 2002. "Instrumental variables and GMM: Estimation and testing," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 545, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 14 Feb 2003. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Kocenda, Evzen, 2005. "Beware of breaks in exchange rates: Evidence from European transition countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 307-324, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Guy Debelle, 2006. "Has the inflation process changed?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 21(46), pages 311-352, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Balazs Egert & Doris Ritzberger-Gruenwald & Maria Antoinette Silgoner, 2004. "Inflation Differentials in Europe: Past Experience and Future Prospects," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 47-72, May. [Downloadable!]
  5. S. J. Koopman & J. Durbin, 2003. "Filtering and smoothing of state vector for diffuse state-space models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(1), pages 85-98, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Nicoletta Batini, 2002. "Euro area inflation persistence," Working Paper Series 201, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Christopher F Baum, 2000. "FRACIRF: Stata module to compute impulse response function for fractionally-integrated timeseries," Statistical Software Components S414004, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 11 Oct 2000. [Downloadable!]
  8. Rebecca L Driver & Peter F Westaway, . "Concepts of equilibrium exchange rates," Bank of England working papers 248, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  9. Júlia Lendvai, 2005. "Hungarian Inflation Dynamics," MNB Occasional Papers 2005/46, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (The Central Bank of Hungary). [Downloadable!]
  10. Ignazio Angeloni & Michael Ehrmann, 2004. "Euro area inflation differentials," Working Paper Series 388, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Laurent Bilke, 2005. "Break in the mean and persistence of inflation - a sectoral analysis of French CPI," Working Paper Series 463, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  12. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1997. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 557-586, May.
    Other versions:
  13. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Ian Babetskii & Fabrizio Coricelli & Roman Horváth, 2007. "Measuring and Explaining Inflation Persistence: Disaggregate Evidence on the Czech Republic," Working Papers IES 2007/22, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Aug 2007. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. M. Dossche & G. Everaert, 2005. "Measuring inflation persistence: a structural time series approach," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/340, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Bruce E. Hansen, 1999. "The Grid Bootstrap And The Autoregressive Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 594-607, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Gregory Gadzinski & Fabrice Orlandi, 2004. "Inflation persistence in the European Union, the euro area, and the United States," Working Paper Series 414, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  18. Roberto A. De Santis & Michele Ca'Zorzi, 2003. "The admission of accession countries to an enlarged monetary union: a tentative assessment," Working Paper Series 216, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  19. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  20. Andrew T. Levin & Jeremy M. Piger, 2004. "Is inflation persistence intrinsic in industrial economies?," Working Paper Series 334, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  21. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2001. "European inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1237-1270. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  22. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Horváth, Roman, 2006. "Price Setting Behaviour: Micro Evidence on Slovakia," CEPR Discussion Papers 5445, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Carlos Robalo Marques, 2004. "Inflation persistence - facts or artefacts?," Working Paper Series 371, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  24. Christopher F. Baum & John Barkoulas & Mustafa Caglayan, 1996. "Persistence in International Inflation Rates," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 333., Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  25. Konieczny, Jerzy D. & Skrzypacz, Andrzej, 2005. "Inflation and price setting in a natural experiment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 621-632, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  26. María Dolores Gadea & Laura Mayoral, 2006. "The Persistence of Inflation in OECD Countries: A Fractionally Integrated Approach," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(1), March. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  27. Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2006. "Observed Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0632, Economics, The University of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  28. Ratfai, A., 2000. "Linking Individual and Aggregate Price Changes," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0035, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    Other versions:
  29. Ignazio Angeloni & Luc Aucremanne & Michael Ehrmann & Jordi Galí & Andrew Levin & Frank Smets, 2006. "New Evidence on Inflation Persistence and Price Stickiness in the Euro Area: Implications for Macro Modeling," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 562-574, 04-05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  30. Bilke, L., 2005. "Break in the Mean and Persistence of Inflation: a Sectoral Analysis of French CPI," Documents de Travail 122, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
  31. Ma, Adrian, 2002. "GMM estimation of the new Phillips curve," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 411-417, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? Cannot find something on IDEAS? Encourage the publisher to index it! Instructions.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-24.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.