Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Structural breaks and relative price convergence among US cities

Contents:

Author Info

  • Hegwood, Natalie D.
  • Nath, Hiranya K.

Abstract

This paper examines whether inclusion of structural breaks helps resolve the puzzling result of excessively slow speed of convergence in relative prices across US cities while using long time series data on CPI. With an endogenously determined single break in 1985 in annual CPI data for 17 major US cities between 1918 and 2010, the panel unit root test results provide overwhelming evidence of convergence of relative prices across cities, which is consistent with the existing literature. Most importantly, this study finds that the speed of convergence with structural break is faster than that reported by previous panel studies with no structural break that use similar long time series data. Furthermore, correcting for small-sample bias (the so-called “Nickell Bias”) and time aggregation bias generates a half-life of 3.9years, which is 64% shorter than the half-life estimate with no structural break and no bias correction. The breakpoint in 1985 coincides with the beginning of the period of Great Moderation during which inflation, along with other macro variables, has become more stable and its impact on relative prices across US cities seems to have waned.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0164070413000074
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 36 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 150-160

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:36:y:2013:i:c:p:150-160

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622617

Related research

Keywords: Relative price convergence; Structural break; Panel unit root test; Half-life; Nickell bias; Time aggregation bias; Great Moderation; Relative price variability;

Other versions of this item:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Campbell, John & Perron, Pierre, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," Scholarly Articles 3374863, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  2. Parsley, David C & Wei, Shang-Jin, 1996. "Convergence to the Law of One Price without Trade Barriers or Currency Fluctuations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 111(4), pages 1211-36, November.
  3. Crucini, Mario J. & Shintani, Mototsugu, 2008. "Persistence in law of one price deviations: Evidence from micro-data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 629-644, April.
  4. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
  5. Hiranya K. Nath & Jayanta Sarkar, 2009. "Unbiased Estimation of the Half-Life to Price Index Convergence among U.S. Cities," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(5), pages 1041-1046, 08.
  6. Chen, L. L. & Devereux, J., 2003. "What can US city price data tell us about purchasing power parity?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 213-222, April.
  7. Prodan, Ruxandra, 2008. "Potential Pitfalls in Determining Multiple Structural Changes With an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 50-65, January.
  8. Hegwood, Natalie D & Papell, David H, 1998. "Quasi Purchasing Power Parity," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(4), pages 279-89, October.
  9. Engel, C. & Rogers, J.H., 1995. "How Wide is the Border?," Papers 4-95-16, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
  10. Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2008. "The purchasing power parity revisited: New evidence for 16 OECD countries from panel unit root tests with structural breaks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 137-146, April.
  11. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
  12. Chi-Young Choi, 2010. "Reconsidering the Relationship between Inflation and Relative Price Variability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(5), pages 769-798, 08.
  13. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morton O. Ravn & Helene Rey, 2002. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 9372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Natalie D. Hegwood & David H. Papell, 2002. "Purchasing Power Parity under the Gold Standard," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 72-91, July.
  15. Nath, Hiranya K., 2004. "Inflation and relative price variability: short-run vs. long-run," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 363-369, March.
  16. Guy Debelle & Owen Lamont, 1996. "Relative Price Variability and Inflation: Evidence from US Cities," NBER Working Papers 5627, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Zvi Hercowitz, 1980. "Money and the Dispersion of Relative Prices," NBER Working Papers 0431, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Culver, Sarah E. & Papell, David H., 1995. "Real exchange rates under the gold standard: can they be explained by the trend break model?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 539-548, August.
  19. Jörg Breitung & Bertrand Candelon, 2005. "Purchasing Power Parity during Currency Crises: A Panel Unit Root Test under Structural Breaks," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 141(1), pages 124-140, April.
  20. Parks, Richard W, 1978. "Inflation and Relative Price Variability," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(1), pages 79-95, February.
  21. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  22. Syed Basher & Josep Carrion-i-Silvestre, 2011. "Measuring persistence of U.S. city prices: new evidence from robust tests," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 739-745, December.
  23. Chi-Young Choi & Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2004. "Bias Reduction by Recursive Mean Adjustment in Dynamic Panel Data Models," Econometrics 0409005, EconWPA.
  24. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Nelson C. Mark & Robert J. Sonora, 2002. "Price Index Convergence Among United States Cities," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 43(4), pages 1081-1099, November.
  25. Mick Silver & Christos Ioannidis, 2001. "Intercountry Differences in the Relationship between Relative Price Variability and Average Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(2), pages 355-374, April.
  26. Reinsdorf, Marshall, 1994. "New Evidence on the Relation between Inflation and Price Dispersion," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 720-31, June.
  27. Choi, Chi-Young & Mark, Nelson C. & Sul, Donggyu, 2006. "Unbiased Estimation of the Half-Life to PPP Convergence in Panel Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 921-938, June.
  28. Basher Syed A. & Carrion-i-Silvestre Josep Lluís, 2009. "Price Level Convergence, Purchasing Power Parity and Multiple Structural Breaks in Panel Data Analysis: An Application to U.S. Cities," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-38, April.
  29. Konieczny, Jerzy D. & Skrzypacz, Andrzej, 2005. "Inflation and price setting in a natural experiment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 621-632, April.
  30. Papell, David H. & Prodan, Ruxandra, 2006. "Additional Evidence of Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity with Restricted Structural Change," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1329-1349, August.
  31. Maurice Obstfeld., 1993. "Model Trending Real Exchange Rates," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-011, University of California at Berkeley.
  32. Josep LluIs Carrion-I-Silvestre & Tomas Del Barrio & Enrique Lopez-Bazo, 2004. "Evidence on the purchasing power parity in a panel of cities," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(9), pages 961-966.
  33. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
  34. Robert Sonora, 2009. "City relative price convergence in the USA with structural break(s)," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(9), pages 939-944.
  35. Vogelsang, T.I. & Perron, P., 1991. "Nonstationary and Level Shifts With An Application To Purchasing Power Parity," Papers 359, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  36. Chmelarova, Viera & Nath, Hiranya K., 2010. "Relative price convergence among US cities: Does the choice of numeraire city matter?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 405-414, March.
  37. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-26, November.
  38. David Papell, 1998. "The Great Appreciation, the Great Depreciation, and the Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis," Working Papers 30, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  39. Robert J. Sonora, 2005. "City CPI Convergence in Mexico," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 359-367, 08.
  40. Vining, Daniel R, Jr & Elwertowski, Thomas C, 1976. "The Relationship between Relative Prices and the General Price Level," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(4), pages 699-708, September.
  41. BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998. "Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models," Cahiers de recherche 9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  42. Lach, Saul & Tsiddon, Daniel, 1992. "The Behavior of Prices and Inflation: An Empirical Analysis of Disaggregated Price Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 349-89, April.
  43. André Sapir & Jaime de Melo, 1991. "Trade theory and economic reform: North, South and East," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/8084, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  44. Kyung-So Im & Junsoo Lee & Margie Tieslau, 2005. "Panel LM Unit-root Tests with Level Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(3), pages 393-419, 06.
  45. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
  46. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  47. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
  48. Stanley Fischer, 1981. "Relative Shocks, Relative Price Variability, and Inflation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(2), pages 381-442.
  49. Yao, Yi-Ching, 1988. "Estimating the number of change-points via Schwarz' criterion," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 181-189, February.
  50. Van Hoomissen, Theresa, 1988. "Price Dispersion and Inflation: Evidence from Israel," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(6), pages 1303-14, December.
  51. Domberger, Simon, 1987. "Relative Price Variability and Inflation: A Disaggregated Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(3), pages 547-66, June.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Jayanta Sarkar & Hiranya K. Nath, 2013. "City Relative Price Dynamics in Australia: Are Structural Breaks Important?," Working Papers 1301, Sam Houston State University, Department of Economics and International Business.
  2. repec:qut:auncer:2013_01 is not listed on IDEAS

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:36:y:2013:i:c:p:150-160. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.