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The purchasing power parity revisited: New evidence for 16 OECD countries from panel unit root tests with structural breaks

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  • Narayan, Paresh Kumar

Abstract

In this paper, we apply a range of univariate unit root tests including the Lagrangian multiplier (LM) univariate and panel unit root tests to examine PPP for 16 OECD countries. In addition to incorporating structural breaks in the univariate exchange rate series, we also incorporate structural breaks in the panel exchange rate models. Our main finding from univariate tests, with and without structural breaks and panel LM test with one break, is that real exchange rates are not stationary, inconsistent with PPP hypothesis. However, when we incorporate two structural breaks in the univariate LM test, for most countries we find that real exchange rates are stationary. Moreover, we obtain overwhelming support for PPP when we apply panel LM unit root tests with two structural breaks.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money.

Volume (Year): 18 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 137-146

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Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:18:y:2008:i:2:p:137-146

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/intfin

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References

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  1. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
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  3. David Papell, 1998. "The Great Appreciation, the Great Depreciation, and the Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis," Working Papers 30, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  4. Kyung-So Im & Junsoo Lee & Margie Tieslau, 2005. "Panel LM Unit-root Tests with Level Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(3), pages 393-419, 06.
  5. Alan M. Taylor, 2000. "A Century of Purchasing-Power Parity," NBER Working Papers 8012, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  7. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
  8. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2006. "Are bilateral real exchange rates stationary? Evidence from Lagrange multiplier unit root tests for India," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 63-70.
  9. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
  10. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "New evidence on purchasing power parity from 17 OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(9), pages 1063-1071.
  11. Gailliot, Henry J, 1970. "Purchasing Power Parity as an Explanation of Long-Term Changes in Exchange Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 2(3), pages 348-57, August.
  12. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2003. "Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1082-1089, November.
  13. Tsung-Wu Ho, 2002. "Searching Stationarity in the Real Exchange Rates: Application of the SUR Estimator," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 275-289, July.
  14. Kargbo, Joseph M., 2003. "Cointegration Tests of Purchasing Power Parity in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 1673-1685, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Hegwood, Natalie D. & Nath, Hiranya K., 2013. "Structural breaks and relative price convergence among US cities," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 150-160.
  2. Mark Holmes & Jesús Otero & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2012. "PPP in OECD Countries: An Analysis of Real Exchange Rate Stationarity, Cross-Sectional Dependency and Structural Breaks," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 767-783, November.
  3. Lyócsa, Štefan & Výrost, Tomáš & Baumöhl, Eduard, 2011. "Unit-root and stationarity testing with empirical application on industrial production of CEE-4 countries," MPRA Paper 29648, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Jayanta Sarkar & Hiranya K. Nath, 2013. "City Relative Price Dynamics in Australia: Are Structural Breaks Important?," Working Papers 1301, Sam Houston State University, Department of Economics and International Business.
  5. Joseph P. Byrne & Jun Nagayasu, 2008. "Structural Breaks in the Real Exchange Rate and Real Interest Rate Relationship," Working Papers, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow 2008_29, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  6. Ali Acaravci & Ilhan Ozturk, 2010. "Testing Purchasing Power Parity in Transition Countries: Evidence from Structural Breaks," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 12(27), pages 190-198, February.
  7. Pei-Chien Lin & Ho-Chuan Huang, 2012. "Convergence in income inequality? evidence from panel unit root tests with structural breaks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 153-174, August.
  8. Snaith, Stuart, 2012. "The PPP debate: Multiple breaks and cross-sectional dependence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 342-344.
  9. repec:qut:auncer:2013_01 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Ritesh Kumar Mishra & Sanjay Sehgal, 2011. "Exchange rates and prices in purchasing power parity framework: Are bilateral real exchange rates stationary?," International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(3), pages 274-286.
  11. Joe Cox, 2008. "Purchasing power parity and cultural convergence: evidence from the global video games market," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 201-214, September.
  12. Nilgün Çil Yavuz, 2009. "Purchasing power parıty with multiple structural breaks: evidence from Turkey," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 1201-1210.

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