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Are Australia's tourism markets converging?

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  • Paresh Kumar Narayan

Abstract

In this paper we make an important contribution towards understanding Australia's tourism industry by examining whether or not Australia's tourism markets are converging. We define convergence as the reduction in tourist arrivals' differential, which is calculated as the difference between total visitor arrivals to a country and visitor arrivals from a particular tourist source market. We analyze Australia's thirteen major tourist source markets using monthly data over the period January 1991 to September 2003. To test for convergence, we use the univariate and panel Lagrange multiplier (LM) tests. Our main finding is that when we allow for two structural breaks in the data series, both univariate and panel LM tests provide strong evidence for convergence of Australia's tourism markets. This implies that policies aimed at attracting visitor arrivals from any one of Australia's thirteen tourist source markets will boost the volume of tourists coming into the country.

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File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036840500391377
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 38 (2006)
Issue (Month): 10 ()
Pages: 1153-1162

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:38:y:2006:i:10:p:1153-1162

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  1. Pierre Perron & Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis: Power Versus Frequency of Observation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 732, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  2. Kulendran, N. & King, Maxwell L., 1997. "Forecasting international quarterly tourist flows using error-correction and time-series models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 319-327, September.
  3. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
  4. Mita Bhattacharya & Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "Testing for the random walk hypothesis in the case of visitor arrivals: evidence from Indian tourism," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 37(13), pages 1485-1490.
  5. Lee, Junsoo & Strazicich, Mark C, 2001. " Break Point Estimation and Spurious Rejections with Endogenous Unit Root Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(5), pages 535-58, December.
  6. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2004. "Minimum LM Unit Root Test with One Structural Break," Working Papers 04-17, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.
  7. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2003. "Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1082-1089, November.
  8. Christine Lim & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Time Series Forecasts of International Tourism Demand for Australia," ISER Discussion Paper 0533, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  9. Taylor, Mark P. & Sarno, Lucio, 1998. "The behavior of real exchange rates during the post-Bretton Woods period," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-312, December.
  10. Christine Lim & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Cointegration analysis of quarterly tourism demand by Hong Kong and Singapore for Australia," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 33(12), pages 1599-1619.
  11. Schmidt, Peter & Phillips, C B Peter, 1992. "LM Tests for a Unit Root in the Presence of Deterministic Trends," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 257-87, August.
  12. Jewell, Todd & Lee, Junsoo & Tieslau, Margie & Strazicich, Mark C., 2003. "Stationarity of health expenditures and GDP: evidence from panel unit root tests with heterogeneous structural breaks," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 313-323, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Lau, Evan & Oh, Swee-Ling & Hu, Sing-Sing, 2008. "Tourist Arrivals And Economic Growth In Sarawak," MPRA Paper 9888, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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