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Is There a Natural Rate of Crime?

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  • Paresh Kumar Narayan
  • Ingrid Nielsen
  • Russell Smyth

Abstract

Studies in the economics of crime literature have reached mixed conclusions on the deterrence hypothesis. One explanation that has been offered for the failure to find evidence of a deterrent effect in the long run is the natural rate of crime. This article applies univariate unit root tests to crime series for the United Kingdom and United States and panel unit roots to crime rates for a panel of G7 countries to examine whether there is a natural rate of crime. Our main finding is that when we allow for two structural breaks in the univariate unit root test and a structural break in the panel data unit root test, there is strong evidence of a natural rate of crime. The policy implications of our findings is that governments should focus on altering the economic and social structural profile that determines crime in the long run rather than increasing expenditure on law enforcement that will at best reduce crime rates in the short run.

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  • Paresh Kumar Narayan & Ingrid Nielsen & Russell Smyth, 2010. "Is There a Natural Rate of Crime?," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(2), pages 759-782, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ajecsc:v:69:y:2010:i:2:p:759-782
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1536-7150.2010.00714.x
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    3. Myachin, N., 2022. "Is there a natural rate of crime in Russia?," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 53(1), pages 85-98.
    4. González-Val, Rafael & Marcén, Miriam, 2010. "Unilateral Divorce vs. Child Custody and Child Support in the U.S," MPRA Paper 24695, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law

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