Testing for the random walk hypothesis in the case of visitor arrivals: evidence from Indian tourism

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Testing for the random walk hypothesis in the case of visitor arrivals: evidence from Indian tourism

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Mita Bhattacharya
Paresh Kumar Narayan

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Abstract

Testing for the random walk hypothesis, which asserts that a series is a non-stationary process or a unit root process, in the case of visitor arrivals has important implications for policy. If, for instance, visitor arrivals are characterized by a unit root, then it implies that shocks to visitor arrivals are permanent. However, if visitor arrivals are without a unit root, this implies that shocks to visitor arrivals are temporary. This study provides evidence on the random walk hypothesis for visitor arrivals to India using the recently developed Im et al . (2003) and Maddala and Wu (1999) panel unit root tests. Both tests allow one to reject the random walk hypothesis, implying that shocks to visitor arrivals to India from the 10 major source markets have a temporary effect on visitor arrivals.

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Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 37 (2005)
Issue (Month): 13 (July)
Pages: 1485-1490
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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:37:y:2005:i:13:p:1485-1490

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
Other versions:
- Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Hooi Hooi Lean & Russell Smyth, 2006. "Asian Financial Crisis, Avian Flu And Terrorist Threats: Are Shocks To Malaysian Tourist Arrivals Permanent Or Transitory?," Monash Economics Working Papers 11/06, Monash University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
Carlos P. Barros & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Carlos M. Santos, 2008. "Tourism in Azores Islands: Persistence in the Monthly Arrivals," Working Papers 2008/09, Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon.. [Downloadable!]
Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2006. "Are Australia's tourism markets converging?," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 38(10), pages 1153-1162, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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