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Time Series Forecasts of International Tourism Demand for Australia

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  • Christine Lim
  • Michael McAleer

Abstract

This paper examines stationary and nonstationary time series by formally testing for the presence of unit roots and seasonal unit roots prior to estimation, model selection and forecasting. Various Box-Jenkins Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models are estimated over the period 1975(1)-1989(4) for tourist arrivals to Australia from Hong Kong, Malaysia and Singapore. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean squared error (RMSE) are used as measures of forecast accuracy. As the best fitting ARIMA model is found to have the lowest RMSE, it is used to obtain post-sample forecasts. Tourist arrivals data for 1990(1) to 1996(4) are compared with the forecast performance of the ARIMA model for each origin market. The fitted ARIMA model forecasts tourist arrivals from Singapore between 1990(1)-1996(4) very well. Although the ARIMA model outperforms the seasonal ARIMA models for Hong Kong and Malaysia, the forecast of tourist arrivals is not as accurate as in the case of Singapore.

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File URL: http://www.iser.osaka-u.ac.jp/library/dp/2001/dp0533.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University in its series ISER Discussion Paper with number 0533.

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Date of creation: Apr 2001
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Handle: RePEc:dpr:wpaper:0533

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  1. Christine Lim & Michael McAleer, 2000. "A seasonal analysis of Asian tourist arrivals to Australia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 499-509.
  2. Martin, Christine A. & Witt, Stephen F., 1989. "Forecasting tourism demand: A comparison of the accuracy of several quantitative methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-19.
  3. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R.F. & Granger, C.W.J. & Yoo, B.S., 1988. "Seasonal, Integration And Cointegration," Papers 6-88-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
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Cited by:
  1. Arias Martín, Pedro, 2013. "La situación del empleo en turismo rural en España/The Employment Situation in Rural Tourism in Spain," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 31, pages 257 (22pags, Enero.
  2. Chang, C-L. & Khamkaew, T. & McAleer, M.J. & Tansuchat, R., 2009. "Interdependence of international tourism demand and volatility in leading ASEAN destinations," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2009-36, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  3. Juncal Cuñado & Luis A. Gil-Alaña, 2007. "Tourism in the Canary Islands: Forecasting Using Several Seasonal Time Series Models," Faculty Working Papers 02/07, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  4. Petrevska, Biljana, 2012. "Forecasting International Tourism Demand: The Evidence Of Macedonia," UTMS Journal of Economics, University of Tourism and Management, Skopje, Macedonia, vol. 3(1), pages 45-55.
  5. Boopen, Seetanah, 2005. "Transport Capital as a Determinant of Tourism Development: A Time Series Approach," MPRA Paper 25402, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Nov 2006.
  6. Naudé, Wim & Saayman, Andrea, 2005. "Determinants of tourist arrivals in Africa: a panel data regression analysis," MPRA Paper 16479, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. George Athanasopoulos & Rob J. Hyndman, 2006. "Modelling and forecasting Australian domestic tourism," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 19/06, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  8. Juncal Cuñado & Alberiko Gil-Alana, Luis & Perez De Gracia, Fernando, 2011. "Modelling International Monthly Tourist in Spain/Modelización de llegadas mensuales de turistas a España," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 29, pages 723-736, Diciembre.
  9. Burcu Kiran, 2010. "The Structure of Tourism Revenues in Turkey: Evidence from Fractional Integration under Multiple Structural Breaks," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 4, pages 85-96.
  10. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2006. "Are Australia's tourism markets converging?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(10), pages 1153-1162.

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