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Time Series Forecasts of International Tourism Demand for Australia

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  • Christine Lim
  • Michael McAleer

Abstract

This paper examines stationary and nonstationary time series by formally testing for the presence of unit roots and seasonal unit roots prior to estimation, model selection and forecasting. Various Box-Jenkins Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models are estimated over the period 1975(1)-1989(4) for tourist arrivals to Australia from Hong Kong, Malaysia and Singapore. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean squared error (RMSE) are used as measures of forecast accuracy. As the best fitting ARIMA model is found to have the lowest RMSE, it is used to obtain post-sample forecasts. Tourist arrivals data for 1990(1) to 1996(4) are compared with the forecast performance of the ARIMA model for each origin market. The fitted ARIMA model forecasts tourist arrivals from Singapore between 1990(1)-1996(4) very well. Although the ARIMA model outperforms the seasonal ARIMA models for Hong Kong and Malaysia, the forecast of tourist arrivals is not as accurate as in the case of Singapore.

Suggested Citation

  • Christine Lim & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Time Series Forecasts of International Tourism Demand for Australia," ISER Discussion Paper 0533, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    • Handle: RePEc:dpr:wpaper:0533
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    1. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6792 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Chia-Lin Chang & Thanchanok Khamkaew & Roengchai Tansuchat & Michael McAleer, 2011. "Interdependence of International Tourism Demand and Volatility in Leading ASEAN Destinations," Tourism Economics, , vol. 17(3), pages 481-507, June.
    3. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña, 2010. "Tourism in South Africa. Time series persistence and the nature of shocks. Are they transitory or permament?," NCID Working Papers 06/2011, Navarra Center for International Development, University of Navarra.
    4. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2011. "Are shocks to tourism transitory at business cycle horizons?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(16), pages 2071-2077.
    5. Boopen, Seetanah, 2005. "Transport Capital as a Determinant of Tourism Development: A Time Series Approach," MPRA Paper 25402, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Nov 2006.
    6. José María Martín Martín & Jose Antonio Salinas Fernández & José Antonio Rodríguez Martín & Juan De Dios Jiménez Aguilera, 2017. "Assessment of the Tourism’s Potential as a Sustainable Development Instrument in Terms of Annual Stability: Application to Spanish Rural Destinations in Process of Consolidation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-20, September.
    7. Oscar Claveria, 2017. "“What really matters is the economic performance: Positioning tourist destinations by means of perceptual maps”," AQR Working Papers 201707, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Jul 2017.
    8. Juncal Cuñado & Alberiko Gil-Alana, Luis & Perez De Gracia, Fernando, 2011. "Modelling International Monthly Tourist in Spain/Modelización de llegadas mensuales de turistas a España," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 29, pages 723-736, Diciembre.
    9. Willem A. Naudé & Andrea Saayman, 2005. "Determinants of Tourist Arrivals in Africa: A Panel Data Regression Analysis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 11(3), pages 365-391, September.
    10. Smiljana Pivčević & Zvonimir Kuliš & Neven Šerić, 2016. "The pull factors of tourism demand: a panel data analysis for Latin American and Carribean countries," Tourism and Hospitality Industry 24, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality Management.
    11. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2006. "Are Australia's tourism markets converging?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(10), pages 1153-1162.
    12. López, Ana M. & Flores, Mario A. & Sánchez, Juan I., 2017. "Modelos de series temporales aplicados a la predicción del tráfico aeroportuario español de pasajeros: Un enfoque agregado y desagregado/Forecasting of Spanish Passenger Air Traffic Based on Time Seri," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 35, pages 395-418, Mayo.
    13. George Athanasopoulos & Rob J. Hyndman, 2006. "Modelling and forecasting Australian domestic tourism," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 19/06, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    14. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Juncal Cunado & Fernando Perez de Gracia, 2008. "Tourism in the Canary Islands: forecasting using several seasonal time series models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(7), pages 621-636.
    15. Tan Vo-Thanh, 2010. "Prévision de la demande touristique par méthodes Delphi et Box-Jenkins : Application à la destination du Vietnam," Post-Print hal-02544954, HAL.
    16. Burcu Kiran, 2010. "The Structure of Tourism Revenues in Turkey: Evidence from Fractional Integration under Multiple Structural Breaks," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 4, pages 85-96.
    17. Arias Martín, Pedro, 2013. "La situación del empleo en turismo rural en España/The Employment Situation in Rural Tourism in Spain," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 31, pages 257(22)-257, Enero.
    18. José María Martín Martín & Juan De Dios Jiménez Aguilera & Valentín Molina Moreno, 2014. "Impacts of Seasonality on Environmental Sustainability in the Tourism Sector Based on Destination Type: An Application to Spain'S Andalusia Region," Tourism Economics, , vol. 20(1), pages 123-142, February.
    19. C. Petropoulos & K. Nikolopoulos & A. Patelis & V. Assimakopoulos, 2005. "A technical analysis approach to tourism demand forecasting," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(6), pages 327-333.
    20. Petrevska, Biljana, 2012. "Forecasting International Tourism Demand: The Evidence Of Macedonia," UTMS Journal of Economics, University of Tourism and Management, Skopje, Macedonia, vol. 3(1), pages 45-55.

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