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Tourism forecasting: accuracy of alternative econometric models

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  • Song, Haiyan
  • Witt, Stephen F.
  • Jensen, Thomas C.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 19 (2003)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 123-141

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Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:19:y:2003:i:1:p:123-141

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

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References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  1. Witt, Stephen F. & Witt, Christine A., 1995. "Forecasting tourism demand: A review of empirical research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 447-475, September.
  2. Haiyan Song & Peter Romilly & Xiaming Liu, 1998. "The UK consumption function and structural instability: improving forecasting performance using a time-varying parameter approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(7), pages 975-983.
  3. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  4. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
  5. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  6. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1996. "Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 11-30, January.
  7. Gonzalez, Pilar & Moral, Paz, 1995. "An analysis of the international tourism demand in Spain," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 233-251, June.
  8. Brown, Jane P. & Song, Haiyan & McGillivray, Alan, 1997. "Forecasting UK house prices: A time varying coefficient approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 529-548, October.
  9. Song, Haiyan & Liu, Xiaming & Romilly, Peter, 1996. " A Time Varying Parameter Approach to the Chinese Aggregate Consumption Function," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 185-203.
  10. Haiyan Song & Peter Romilly & Xiaming Liu, 2000. "An empirical study of outbound tourism demand in the UK," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(5), pages 611-624.
  11. Joutz, Fred & Stekler, H. O., 2000. "An evaluation of the predictions of the Federal Reserve," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 17-38.
  12. Martin, Christine A. & Witt, Stephen F., 1989. "Forecasting tourism demand: A comparison of the accuracy of several quantitative methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-19.
  13. Breusch, Trevor S & Wickens, Michael R, 1987. "Dynamic Specification, the Long Run and the Estimation of Transformed Regression Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 154, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Riddington, GL, 1993. "Time varying coefficient models and their forecasting performance," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 573-583, September.
  15. Song, Haiyan & Liu, Xiaming & Romilly, Peter, 1997. "A Comparative Study of Modelling the Demand for Food in the United States and the Netherlands," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(5), pages 593-608, Sept.-Oct.
  16. Makridakis, Spyros, 1986. "The art and science of forecasting An assessment and future directions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 15-39.
  17. Ashley, Richard, 1988. "On the relative worth of recent macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 363-376.
  18. McNees, Stephen K, 1986. "Forecasting Accuracy of Alternative Techniques: A Comparison of U.S. Macroeconomic Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 5-15, January.
  19. McNees, Stephen K, 1986. "Forecasting Accuracy of Alternative Techniques: A Comparison of U.S. Macroeconomic Forecasts: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 23, January.
  20. Song, Haiyan & Liu, Xiaming & Romilly, Peter, 1997. "A Comparative Study of Modelling the Demand for Food in the United States and the Netherlands: Reply," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(5), pages 612-13, Sept.-Oct.
  21. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  22. Wickens, Michael R., 1996. "Interpreting cointegrating vectors and common stochastic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 255-271, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Song, Haiyan & Li, Gang & Witt, Stephen F. & Athanasopoulos, George, 2011. "Forecasting tourist arrivals using time-varying parameter structural time series models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 855-869, July.
  2. Arias Martín, Pedro, 2013. "La situación del empleo en turismo rural en España/The Employment Situation in Rural Tourism in Spain," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 31, pages 257 (22pags, Enero.
  3. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2008. "An Econometric Analysis of Aggregate Outbound Tourism Demand of Turkey," MPRA Paper 6765, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2008.
  4. Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J. & Song, Haiyan & Wu, Doris C., 2011. "The tourism forecasting competition," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 822-844.
  5. Egon Smeral & Michael Wüger, 2004. "Does Complexity Matter? Methods for Improving Forecasting Accuracy in Tourism," WIFO Working Papers 225, WIFO.
  6. Charles, Jacky S. & Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr., 2012. "An Error Correction Analysis of Visitor Arrivals to the Bahamas," MPRA Paper 43064, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Luiz Moutinho & K.-H. Huarng & Tiffany Yu & C.-Y. Chen, 2008. "Modeling and forecasting tourism demand: the case of flows from Mainland China to Taiwan," Service Business, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 219-232, September.
  8. Ferda Halicioglu, 2005. "An Ardl Model Of Aggregate Tourism Demand For Turkey," International Trade 0503005, EconWPA.
  9. KETENCI, Natalya, 2010. "Cointegration Analysis Of Tourism Demand For Turkey," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 10(1).
  10. Haiyan Song & Egon Smeral & Gang Li & Jason L. Chen, 2008. "Tourism Forecasting: Accuracy of Alternative Econometric Models Revisited," WIFO Working Papers 326, WIFO.
  11. Louie Ren & Yong Glasure, 2009. "Applicability of the Revised Mean Absolute Percentage Errors (MAPE) Approach to Some Popular Normal and Non-normal Independent Time Series," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 409-420, November.
  12. Li, Gang & Song, Haiyan & Witt, Stephen F., 2006. "Time varying parameter and fixed parameter linear AIDS: An application to tourism demand forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 57-71.
  13. Naudé, Wim & Saayman, Andrea, 2005. "Determinants of tourist arrivals in Africa: a panel data regression analysis," MPRA Paper 16479, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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